Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
335 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms linger across north central Nebraska through
  late this morning, though the threat for severe weather appears
  low.

- Additional thunderstorms move off the high terrain of Wyoming
  this afternoon, impacting portions of western Nebraska by late
  evening.

- Thunderstorm chances linger nearly each day through Friday, with
  at least some threat for severe weather persisting.

- Drier conditions prevail into the weekend along with warming temperatures
  and a low confidence chance for the first triple digit heat of
  the Summer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Ongoing precipitation shield from earlier mesoscale convective
system will persist across north central Nebraska for a few more
hours this morning before shifting eastward into eastern Nebraska.
Continued convection initiation is anticipated on the western
periphery of the trailing stratiform, as a southerly low level jet
interacts with the residual cold pool. This will keep at least
isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage across north central
Nebraska into late this morning, before the LLJ begins to veer.
All convection should exit the area by early this afternoon. Can't
rule out a stronger storm or two in the trailing convection with
hail, as strong deep layer wind shear persists. An ample reservoir
of MUCAPE remains across portions of western and southwest
Nebraska as well, with values ~2500-3000 J/kg. This should help to
sustain updrafts through the morning hours, though confidence in
anything other than a couple stronger storms is low.

By this afternoon, an upper level trough axis will begin to
translate eastward across the northern Plains, crossing the area
this evening. At the surface, a weak front will begin to slide
eastward into the Panhandle by late afternoon, with a broad surface
low over the Dakotas. This surface boundary will promote at least
scattered thunderstorm initiation across the high terrain of
eastern WY this afternoon, which will progress eastward into
western Nebraska late this evening. With the persistently strong
northwest flow continuing aloft, long and straight hodographs
suggest a renewed threat for large hail. Lapse rates remain steep
aloft, and ample deep layer instability will be in place across
the area today. Damaging winds appear possible at least initially,
though with a later arrival of storms (near and after sunset)
confidence in how surface based they remain becomes lower
confidence. This is especially true with eastward extent towards
HWY 83, with warmer mid- level temperatures keeping a stout cap in
place. This could lead to a lesser wind threat as storms push
through the area, though a hail threat would persist should
updrafts remain at least semi-discrete. Storms begin to wane
across southwest Nebraska through midnight.

An additional round of convection is possible into Wednesday morning
as a surface cold front begins to slide into the area. Again, hail
looks to be a threat with any sustained updrafts as deep layer shear
and ample elevated instability persist. This activity looks to push
out of the area through late morning, with yet another round of
storms along the surface front by late afternoon. A very favorable
environment looks to exist ahead of the front by late afternoon,
with long and straight hodographs along with strong instability.
However, recent guidance suggests the front will largely be south
of the area by early evening, with a limited window of concern for
convection. This would also limit areal coverage to areas near
and south of I- 80, though confidence remains low for now. Trends
will need to be monitored, as a slower progression in the front
would likely lead to a more widespread threat for strong to severe
storms Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The active regime persists into Thursday and Friday as northwesterly
flow continues aloft. At least some severe potential will exist each
day, though confidence wanes with the exact threat being driven by
mesoscale influences each day.

By Saturday, the upper level ridge will begin to amplify across the
western CONUS and gradually translate eastward. This will lead to
increasing subsidence aloft as heights rise, and should being a
period of drier conditions. Temperatures also look to be on the rise
by late weekend and into early next week, as the upper ridge axis
begins to approach the area. H5 heights approach and exceed the 90th
percentile by early next week as the upper ridge centers over
western Kansas. Strong warm advection in the low levels sends H85
temperatures soaring to near the 90th percentile climo as well. This
all points towards the warmest stretch we've seen this Summer
locally. If antecedent conditions were drier, believe triple
digit heat would be likely across the area early next week.
However, with ample moisture in the lead up to this warm stretch,
low level moisture may remain elevated enough to avoid widespread
highs in the lower 100s. The more likely scenario is highs in the
middle to upper 90s, though cannot totally rule out a few locales
reaching the triple digits. That said, this is also a potential
issue, with higher dewpoints combining with temperatures in the
middle to upper 90s leading to possible heat concerns. In fact,
heat index values look to climb into the upper 90s early next
week, with an increasing threat for heat related illnesses. This
is especially true given the more mild nature of the Summer across
the area thus far, with even a general lack of 90 degree days
compared to climo. This will need to be monitored closely, and
those with outdoor interests should prepare for the first real
taste of Summer heat and humidity early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

The ongoing thunderstorm complex across wrn and ncntl Nebraska is
expected to continue moving east and exit wrn Nebraska by 09z but
linger across ncntl Nebraska affecting areas east of highway 83
until around 15z.

MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected to develop across wrn and ncntl
Nebraska affecting areas west of highway 183. The flight concern
is expected to last 09z-18z this morning.

The next chance of thunderstorms will be this evening...00z-06z,
affecting areas of wrn Nebraska, generally west of highway 83.
Storm coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-190815-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
311 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 /211 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Nebraska, north central Nebraska, panhandle Nebraska, southwest
Nebraska, and west central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this morning across north
central Nebraska and this evening across western Nebraska. The
risk of severe weather is marginal in both areas which implies
isolated severe storms are possible. The hazards are large hail
and wind damage with any storms which become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday. Although the
risk of severe weather is low, an isolated severe storm may
develop. Large hail and wind damage are the severe weather
concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
315 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ038-180900-
Custer NE-
315 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Custer
County through 400 AM CDT...

At 314 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Anselmo to near Broken
Bow. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Sargent, Merna, Anselmo, Comstock, Berwyn, Victoria
Springs State Recreation Area, Weissert, Westerville, Lillian, Round
Valley, Walworth, Arcadia Diversion Dam State Wildlife Management
Area, Wescott, Big Oak Canyon, Divide Hill and Gates.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 92 and 121.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 248 and 292.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 271 and 273, and near mile marker
308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 9971 4173 10006 4173 9929 4157 9921
      4140 9921 4139 9920 4127 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 287DEG 39KT 4169 9995 4141 9968

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
426 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ005-006-008-181015-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Keya Paha NE-
426 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Cherry,
northern Brown and southwestern Keya Paha Counties through 515 AM
CDT...

At 426 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Norden, or 17 miles southeast of Valentine, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wood Lake, Keller Park State Recreation Area, Thomas Creek State
Wildlife Management Area, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area, Pine
Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Antelope Peak, Meadville and North River
Trail.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 196 and 211.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 211 and 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 10040 4280 10039 4279 9968 4256 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 273DEG 38KT 4271 10029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
451 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ008-181030-
Brown NE-
451 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Brown County
through 530 AM CDT...

At 451 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Johnstown, or 10 miles west of Ainsworth, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Long Pine and Johnstown.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 194 and 195.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 227 and 251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 10017 4260 10017 4256 9969 4235 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 278DEG 35KT 4257 10007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
457 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

NEZ008-009-026-027-181045-
Brown NE-Loup NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
457 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Rock,
northwestern Loup, southeastern Brown and northeastern Blaine
Counties through 545 AM CDT...

At 456 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Elsmere, or 13 miles northwest of Brewster, moving east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rose and Fox Bayou.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 139 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4209 10009 4221 10008 4217 9932 4186 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0956Z 278DEG 31KT 4211 10000

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

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