Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Key messages...

* The potential for severe thunderstorms is expected late this
  afternoon and evening across much of north central and western
  Nebraska with large hail and strong winds being the main concerns.

* Near daily thunderstorm chances expected Friday through the middle
  of next week although the severe risk remains low at this time.

* Temperatures remain slightly below normal through the weekend
  before rising to near normal for the first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

The main story in the short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms by late this afternoon and lasting into the evening
hours as a trough pushes across the Nebraska.

At this time, thunderstorm initiation has been limited to northern
Nebraska and into the northern Sandhills where a lingering boundary
and increasing instability are present. Latest meso guidance shows
CAPE values approaching 2500 to 3500 J/kg across this region along
with low level lapse rates above 8 C/km. At this time, these storms
appear to only be producing some small hail and brief gusty winds,
but expect increasing severe potential over the next hour or two as
the storms move into an increasing favorable environment.

Further to the south across the central Sandhills and into southwest
Nebraska, the environment remains favorable, but significant
convective inhibition remains over the area. Latest guidance
supports rapidly decreasing CIN though over the past few hours and
confidence that this will continue over the next couple of hours is
high. After this occurs, expect a rapid increase in convection
across the region with discrete supercells initially. The main
threats with these storms will be damaging hail up to 2 inches or
higher in diameter through the rest of the afternoon and into early
evening. As the evening progresses, the latest hi-res models are
hinting at supercells congealing into a line with high winds
(potentially up to 65 to 70 mph) being the main threat as well as
some hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

As the environment becomes worked over and instability lessens by
late evening and early Friday morning, the main threat will become
heavy rainfall. There is some concern regarding how the overnight
activity will progress, which may result in little to no heavy
rainfall. However, confidence is high enough to put a mention here
as this seems to be the most likely scenario.

Heading into Friday, the picture becomes a bit more fuzzy. Lingering
showers around daybreak and lasting through mid-morning may impact
any later convection across the region. Much like Thursday, if some
breaks in the showers/clouds can be achieved, there is a small
potential for some isolated thunderstorms again in the late
afternoon and evening. At this time, though, confidence remains low
in any thunderstorms and therefore severe thunderstorms are not
expected on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

A series of disturbances will keep active weather in place through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. Near daily
afternoon/evening thunderstorms will impact portions of western or
north central Nebraska. At this time, the severe risk is low, but
may impact afternoon/evening outdoor activities through the extended
period.

For temperatures, active weather and periodic cloud cover will keep
temperatures just below normal in the low to mid 80s through Sunday
(normal is upper 80s to low 90s). A gradual warming trend is
expected by the beginning of next week with highs returning to near
normal. Low temperatures remain fairly steady just below normal (low
60s) through Wednesday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across western and north central Nebraska. Outside of any
thunderstorm activity VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
Winds will be locally gusty and variable near any thunderstorm,
otherwise winds should remain generally less than 15 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Kulik
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-142115-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 /301 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across much of the area this
morning into the early afternoon, but the severe potential is low.

The severe potential increases this afternoon and evening,
especially for areas primarily along and west of Highway 83. The
primary threats will be very large hail of golf ball sized or larger
and strong winds up to 60 mph. In addition, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out. Storms should decrease intensity by mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into the
weekend. The severe potential will be limited with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Taylor

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
439 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Hail             7 WSW Johnstown         42.52N 100.18W
07/13/2023  M1.00 inch       Brown              NE   Trained Spotter

&&

RK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
509 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

NEZ008-009-132245-
Brown NE-Rock NE-
509 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Rock
and east central Brown Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Ainsworth, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hofeld Lake and Jones Lake.

This includes Highway 183 between mile markers 168 and 174.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4239 9995 4255 9982 4245 9946 4224 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 301DEG 33KT 4244 9981

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Gomez

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