Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Rain chances and the chance for any stronger thunderstorm
  activity will be the focus the next couple of days.

- Next week's weather will hinge on how an upper trough evolves
  across the western CONUS. Models have been struggling with the
  overall evolution and associated downstream weather conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

Decent moisture has advected northward from the Gulf into the
Central and Southern Plains. PWATS range from about 0.8" across our
area to over 1.5" in OK southward into TX. Surface dew points have
risen into the lower and mid 50s across the local area, with the
richer 60s to near 70F dew points confined to OK and especially TX.
A gradual increase in moisture will continue as general southerly
low-level flow remains in place through Friday. This increase in
moisture will lead to some decent rain chances especially Friday
night.

The increase in moisture combined with daytime heating has created
some decent surface based CAPE values this afternoon. Mid-level
lapse rates are decently steep aiding in the instability. Shear is
another story. Flow aloft is very weak (5-10 kts) up through about
400mb. As far as a focus for convective development, a weak, nearly
stationary front across northern Nebraska will serve as the focus.
Again, with such weak shear, expect any updraft to be .
The environment does support strong gusty winds (DCAPE near 1000
J/KG) with any cell, and a lesser chance for mostly small hail. It
is possible that a small cold pool could materialize this evening
with a cluster of storms sagging southward into the southern
Sandhills.

A better chance for more widespread shower/thunder activity will
come Friday night. A shortwave disturbance will approach the area
later Friday afternoon. Surface low pressure will deepen across
eastern CO as this occurs. Southeast low-level flow will increase
downstream east of the low across KS into NE. This will help
maintain and advect low-level moisture westward into the High Plains
by late afternoon. Expect high based convection to first develop
across the Front Range late Friday afternoon. This activity should
grow upstream Friday night with support from the shortwave and
increasing downstream H85 low-level jet. Appears some decent
rainfall may occur in addition to the threat of a few strong or
perhaps severe storms given strengthening southwest flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

A warm weather pattern looks to develop this weekend and continue
into next week. Subtle upper level riding aloft looks to persist
through the middle of next week. Low-level moisture will continue to
linger and at least a slight chance for a few showers/storms will be
possible. Later next week models have been struggling with the
evolution of an upper level trough across the western CONUS. The
latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF look favorable for a possible
deeper trough an active downstream convective activity across the
Plains in a warm, moist and unstable environment. Will continue to
monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

Scattered thunderstorms have begun to develop across the Panhandle
into portions of western and north central Nebraska. The primary
threats with these thunderstorms are gusty winds and frequent
lightning. Confidence is moderate on direct impacts to KLBF and
KVTN terminals, thus covered with a VCTS for a brief time through
the early overnight hours. The coverage for these scattered
thunderstorms will diminish after 09Z Friday with only a brief
lull in thunderstorm chances before additional thunderstorms
develop Friday evening.

Stratus will move in behind the exiting thunderstorms early Friday
morning bringing MVFR conditions to much of western and north
central Nebraska, including the KLBF and KVTN terminals. The
potential for IFR ceilings exists across the northern Sandhills,
potentially impacting the KVTN terminal. Confidence is moderate
in regards to the extent of the IFR ceilings, thus included a
TEMPO from 12Z to 15Z on Friday for KVTN terminal. Future
refinements are likely with the next TAF issuance.

The stratus will begin to gradually push northeast early Friday
morning, bringing a return to VFR conditions for southwestern
into portions of south central Nebraska, including KLBF terminal.
However, the stratus will persist across the northern Sandhills
into portions of north central Nebraska (including KVTN, KGRN,
KONL terminals) with MVFR ceilings continuing through the end of
the TAF period.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return again Friday evening, some
of which may be severe. Strong winds, hail, and frequent
lightning are all possible with Friday evening's storms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Viken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-052015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
305 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 /205 PM MDT Thu May 4 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening. A few could become strong to severe. Hail up to one
inch diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with the
strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be possible Friday
afternoon into Friday night across most of western and north central
Nebraska. A few could be strong to severe. Hail up to one inch
diameter and wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible with the strongest
storms.

Chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across
the area Saturday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
807 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

NEZ008>010-026-050145-
Brown NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Blaine NE-
807 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Rock,
southeastern Brown, west central Holt and northern Blaine Counties
through 845 PM CDT...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newport to 15 miles northeast of Elsmere.
Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Raven, Duff, Pony Lake, Sybrant, Jones Lake, Twin Lakes State
Wildlife Management Area and Johnsons Corner.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 155 and 176.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 273 and 276.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4248 9888 4205 9979 4227 10007 4261 9924
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 304DEG 11KT 4254 9926 4227 9991

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sporer

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>