Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
250 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Key Messages:

Active week in regards to thunderstorm chances. Fast west-northwest
flow aloft will interact with a moist, unstable surface environment
providing conditions conducive for scattered areas of organized
convection.

A warm start to the week with high temperatures around or even a bit
above normal. By mid to late week temperatures cool again with highs
in the 80-85 degree range

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

A weak shortwave disturbance is noted on WV imagery across northern
CO early this afternoon. A surface low is in the process of
deepening across northeast CO ahead of this feature. Surface
analysis indicates an inverted surface trough extends northeastward
from the low across the Sandhills. Hi-Res short term model guidance
is in good agreement that convective initiation should take place by
late afternoon near this inverted trough. A reservoir of high CAPE
and strong shear will reside across much of southwest into central
Nebraska downstream of the initiation. At least of couple of
supercells should emerge as they move nearly due south into the well
sheared, high CAPE environment. Sounding profiles just ahead of the
convection are supportive of large hail, and this appears to be the
main severe weather threat initially. By early evening storms may
congeal into a small complex across southwest Nebraska with strong
wind becoming another hazard. By mid-evening the storms should have
or be exiting the immediate area and headed toward northern KS.

Tuesday looks potentially active as well. Another weak wave will be
approaching the area during peak heating. NAM has consistently shown
a deepening surface low INVOF of the northwest Sandhills. A pseudo
warm frontal boundary will be located east of the low through the
central Sandhills, with a dryline extending southward across the
southeast NE Panhandle into far eastern CO. There is a significant
EML that overspreads the area Tuesday, but sounding profiles
indicate that most if the CIN should erode by late afternoon.
Isolated supercell development is expected near the surface low
northwest of the North Platte area in the western Sandhills. A very
moist (surface dew points in the lower 70s) will be in place to the
east of the dryline and south of the warm front across southwest NE.
It will be very unstable and highly sheared, and expect any storm
that develops to quickly become severe (supercellular) as they track
south-southeastward through southwest NE during the evening. There
is a bit of concern on the stronger cap tomorrow, but fairly
confident that should be overcome as temperatures rise into the
lower 90s across southwest NE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Convective chances/location Wed-Fri are somewhat uncertain. A weak
cold frontal boundary will settle south into the area, and may be
pushed further southward into KS due to convection outflow. Pops
will likely have to be adjusted as the timeframe approaches as well
as any severe potential. Temperatures will also cool back a few
degrees as the weak cold front settles southward into the region,
especially  by Friday and into the weekend when highs should be in
the 80-85 degree range. Northwest flow aloft will persist into the
weekend, and cannot rule out at least some isolated convection in
the favorable convective northwest flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon
across western and north central Nebraska outside of
thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon
across the Sandhills, moving southward with time this evening.
Hail, strong and erratic winds, and brief MVFR CIGs/visibilities
can be expected in any thunderstorms today. Storms quickly exit
the area near/after sunset with VFR then prevailing.

Winds remain southerly for southwest and central Nebraska
terminals through the period. Winds shift briefly northerly this
afternoon across northern Nebraska before transitioning back
southerly overnight, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 /211 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across
parts of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, then will move south
to southeast during the evening. Storm coverage will likely be
limited, but storms could cluster into a line as they approch
Interstate 80. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
locally heavy rainfall are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of isolated or scattered storms will develop near a
slow moving front draped across the Sandhills on Tuesday. Potential
exists for the storms to merge into a larger complex that heads into
central Nebraska during the nighttime. Damaging winds, large hail,
and very heavy rain are the main threats.

Additional storms are possible each evening from Wednesday through
Sunday. Some storms may be strong or severe on Wednesday, while the
greatest potential for widespread rain comes late Thursday. Stay
tuned to later forecasts regarding severe storm potential and
clearer details regarding location and timing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
559 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 ESE Seneca            42.03N 100.77W
07/10/2023  E60 mph          Thomas             NE   Public

&&

JG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

NEZ038-102345-
Custer NE-
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Custer
County through 645 PM CDT...

At 603 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Broken Bow to 10 miles south of Merna to
near Callaway. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Broken Bow, Callaway, Ansley, Merna, Mason City, Berwyn, Westerville,
Burr Oak, Gavin Siding, Intersection of Highway 183 and Cumro Road,
Buckeye, Block Hill Basin, Pressey State Wildlife Management Area and
Cumro.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 73 and 99.
 Highway 2 between mile markers 267 and 307.
 Highway 92 between mile markers 268 and 308.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4105 9950 4140 10009 4154 9972 4135 9920
      4105 9921
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 299DEG 32KT 4144 9968 4134 9975 4134 9989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brown

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     Hail             Bartlett                41.88N  98.55W
07/10/2023  E0.88 inch       Wheeler            NE   Emergency Mngr

&&

Taylor