Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS North Platte, NE

470 
WGUS73 KLBF 281105
FFSLBF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
505 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023

NEC029-281115-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230528T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chase NE-
505 AM MDT Sun May 28 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CHASE COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.



LAT...LON 4047 10198 4053 10201 4059 10198 4070 10185
      4069 10135 4035 10135 4035 10149 4035 10154
      4035 10158 4035 10161 4035 10163 4035 10165
      4035 10168 4035 10170 4035 10178 4035 10200

$$

Roberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Key Messages:

- Periodic thunderstorm chances continue the next several days with
a threat of hail, wind, and very heavy rain this weekend

- Breezy south winds expected again Sunday

- Near normal temperatures this weekend, then a slight warmup headed
into midweek with a push for 90F across northern Neb

Synopsis:

Nebraska lies in southwest to nearly meridional flow aloft as the
state is bounded by closed lows in the Pacific Northwest and
Tennessee Valley. Near the surface, a trough continues to hold
against the higher terrain in CO and WY. This feature will be partly
responsible for additional thunderstorm development over the next
several hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

This evening tonight... Strong south/southeasterly low level flow
will keep driving the moisture advection scheme for western
Nebraska. The winds are nearly uninhibited from the Gulf, helping
maintain dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Weak isentropic
upglide is in place over southwest Neb and the Sandhills through mid-
evening, which may provide enough lift to spawn isolated showers and
storms. Otherwise, the main story will be convection approaching
from the west. Scattered activity is underway (as of 21z) close to
the divide, and guidance suggests upscale growth toward the Neb
panhandle later on. Thunder parameters such as instability and deep
layer shear weaken notably after 06z east of the panhandle, which
would suggest that activity to fizzle. However, newer storms may
develop in the southwest overnight, possibly in the form of an MCV.
More aggressive guidance like the HRRR hints at full-blown
convection barreling through near and south of I-80, while HREF
suggests scattered and less intense activity. If the former scenario
comes to fruition, heavy rain will be a major concern. Creeks are
still running high or even above flood stage in/around Hayes Co, and
flash flood guidance is relatively low. While forecast soundings do
not suggest super slow storm motion, atmospheric moisture content
remains seasonably high and above the 90%ile of climo. Forecast min
temps used a general short term guidance blend and resulted in mid
50s west to upper 50s east.

Tomorrow... Upper level flow transitions to more quasi-zonal briefly
as a progressive trough swings into the Dakotas and is accompanied
by a mid-level shortwave. These features, along with the surface
boundary hanging off to the west and a developing warm front to the
south, will present additional opportunities for thunderstorms. A
big question mark is the aforementioned MCV. Should one be slow to
erode or exit the forecast area, new development may be delayed
until late in the evening. Perhaps the greatest potential exists
toward central Neb after dark when earlier iso/sct storms merge into
a cluster or MCS-type setup. The other possibility will be scattered
storms forming by early/mid afternoon in the Sandhills. Whatever
activity occurs, the environment would support strong to severe
storms. Instability would be ripe with MUCAPE values of 1500+ j/kg
and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, while deep layer shear
approaches 30 kts in the south and 40 kts in the north. Soundings
suggest a skinnier CAPE profile, which may limit large hail growth,
but very steep low level lapse rates would encourage stronger wind
gusts. Similar to the past few days, torrential rainfall will be big
concern as well. Forecast max temps hedge on the lower end of the
NBM envelope due anticipated more widespread cloud cover and
precipitation. Values range from the lower/mid 70s southern/central
Sandhills to around far north central.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

The synoptically active period continues through the workweek for
Nebraska as upper flow switches between quasi-zonal and
southwesterly. Eventually toward late week, the trough over the
Western US deepens and spreads onto the Plains, possibly spinning
off a closed low over the central Rockies. Surface boundaries will
also be in the vicinity, including a warm front passage late Monday
and a cool front Friday. Overall, periodic rain showers and
thunderstorms will be the norm. The most persistent and widespread
activity may occur Friday into Saturday with the approaching upper
low. Temperature-wise, highs will stay near normal (70s to around
80F) through the weekend, then warm well into the 80s Tue and Wed. A
few 90s may be possible in the Sandhills midweek depending on sky
cover and the strength of low level temp advection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across southwest
Nebraska will continue to spread north and eastward over the next
several hours. Majority of precipitation will remain across
southwest Nebraska, impacting KLBF with periods of heavy rainfall,
lightning, and reductions in visibility due to both falling rain as
well as light fog. KVTN may see an isolated shower or brief
thunderstorm this morning, but any impacts should be minimal. Both
sites will remain breezy through Sunday with southerly gusts up to
20 to 25 knots possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for
NEZ069>071.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Kulik

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
950 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-290300-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
950 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 /850 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will develop to the west in
the panhandle this evening. The storms will be weakening as they
move eastward and may pose a severe threat as far east as Highway
61.

A Flood Watch is in effect overnight for Chase, Hayes, and Frontier
counties. Overnight thunderstorms may quickly lead to flash flooding
in far southwest Nebraska due to very wet soils from heavy rainfall
late last week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Storms are expected tomorrow, with some possible severe. Any storm
that develops has the potential for torrential rainfall, large hail,
and strong winds.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected next week with near
daily rain chances. The severe threat remains low across much of the
area with increased potential across the Panhandle.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
834 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

NEZ022-035-056-057-280330-
Deuel NE-Arthur NE-Garden NE-Keith NE-
834 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Arthur,
northwestern Perkins, western Keith, southern Garden and Deuel
Counties through 930 PM MDT...

At 833 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dalton to near Twin Buttes to near
Fleming. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chappell, Oshkosh, Big Springs, Lewellen, Barton, Eagle Gulch
Campground, Ruthon, Clear Creek State Wildlife Management Area,
Intersection of Highway 27 and 9 Mile Road, Megeath, Ash Hollow State
Historical Park, Mount Vernon, Goldeneye State Wildlife Management
Area, Bluewater Battlefield State Historical Park and Windlass Hill.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 115 and 125.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 78 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 10194 4100 10191 4101 10262 4139 10261
      4140 10264 4148 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 270DEG 39KT 4142 10302 4096 10277 4073 10293

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sporer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1042 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

NEZ004-094-280530-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
1042 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Cherry
and northeastern Sheridan Counties through 1130 PM MDT...

At 1041 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along extending from near Wolf Creek Housing to 9 miles south of
Gordon. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Hoover Lake, Lone Butte, Irwin, Highway 27 crossing the
Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 20 and Irwin Road, Shell Lake
State Wildlife Management Area, Rock Hill, Bayonne and Intersection
of Highway 27 and Mills Road.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 99 and 132.
 Highway 61 between mile markers 210 and 215.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4300 10181 4272 10168 4257 10224 4300 10244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 240DEG 19KT 4300 10234 4268 10219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Sporer