Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS North Platte, NE

862 
WGUS73 KLBF 101859
FFSLBF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1259 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

NEC031-102215-
/O.CON.KLBF.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230610T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherry NE-
1259 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023 /159 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT/515 PM 
CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY...

At 1259 PM MDT /159 PM CDT/, Thunderstorms produced between 3 and 4 
inches of rain this morning and flooding was reported near the 
hospital in Valentine earlier. While flooding is starting to recede, 
hazardous conditions will linger for another hour or two.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Valentine.

This includes the following highways...
	Highway 83 near mile marker 213.
	Highway 20 near mile marker 197.
	Highway 12 between mile markers 1 and 5.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.

&&

LAT...LON 4288 10056 4292 10046 4293 10040 4292 10034
      4289 10032 4288 10035 4288 10037 4288 10039
      4287 10041 4285 10041 4284 10044 4284 10048
      4286 10052 4286 10055 4287 10056

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

MBS

038 
WGUS73 KLBF 102000
FFSLBF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
200 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

NEC031-102010-
/O.CAN.KLBF.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230610T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cherry NE-
200 PM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023 /300 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN CHERRY COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended and flood waters have receded. Flooding is 
no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures and be alert for debris on roadways.

LAT...LON 4288 10056 4292 10046 4293 10040 4292 10034
      4289 10032 4288 10035 4288 10037 4288 10039
      4287 10041 4285 10041 4284 10044 4284 10048
      4286 10052 4286 10055 4287 10056

$$

MBS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
639 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Key Messages:

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon and evening in association with a cold front.

- Daily thunderstorm chances linger into much of next week, with
  high temperatures slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Currently, thunderstorm development persists across far north
central Nebraska, just ahead of a weak surface boundary. Further
north, a surface low is sliding southeastward across portions of
central SD, with a cold front stretching westward into southwest SD.
Aloft, weak northwesterly flow continues, with a shortwave located
upstream near the International Border.

For today: Expect lingering scattered convection across northern
Nebraska through this morning and into the afternoon. This is a
result of the aforementioned surface low continuing to push
southeastward into portions of northeast Nebraska. As this occurs, a
a cold front will progress through the area, with convection slowly
overspreading the area from north to south through the afternoon.
The highest confidence in convective coverage in this regime will be
near the slow moving and gradually deepening surface low, as it
tracks across eastern Nebraska. By late afternoon, convection
initiation is expected across the higher terrain of Eastern
WY/CO, and this looks to slide southeast into portions of
southwest Nebraska this evening. This suggests two areas of higher
convection potential (northern Nebraska and far southwest
Nebraska), with a relative minimum (more scattered versus
widespread coverage) between the two regimes across portions of
the Sandhills. The environment remains very conducive for heavy
rainfall today, with PWAT values near the 90th percentile climo.
Additionally, deep layer wind fields remain weak, and will promote
slow storm motions. Concern continues to grow for locally very
heavy rainfall across portions of northern Nebraska, with recent
high-res guidance suggesting localized amounts of 2-3"+. This will
need to be monitored closely, and areas of localized flooding are
possible. Any severe weather threat looks low across north
central Nebraska today, with the limited shear and weak lapse
rates aloft (in part due to a lack of dry air aloft).

The convection pushing southeastward off the high terrain into
southwest Nebraska this evening will evolve in a slightly drier
environment, characterized by slightly steeper lapse rates aloft
than in areas further northeast. Though deep layer shear still
remains marginal, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out, with
hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. Recent high-res
guidance suggests at least a loosely organized cluster of storms
progressing south of I-80 through southwest Nebraska this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, with deep moisture
still in place.

Convection will wane tonight, due to a combination of the surface
low exiting the area and a loss of diurnal instability. Surface
ridging spills into northern Nebraska in the wake of the cold front,
leading to increasing easterly flow across portions of the Panhandle
into the WY/CO front range. Additionally, a cooler and drier airmass
settles into the area, and highs Sunday look to be well below
average, in the upper 60s to low 70s. The aforementioned upslope
easterly flow will lead to a renewed round of convection across the
high terrain out west, though confidence in any of this activity
reaching the area remains low for now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

The long term begins with relatively "chilly" temperatures, with the
aforementioned dry air helping to promote lows in the middle to
upper 40s across the Sandhills Monday morning. A gradual warming
trend then commences into midweek, with highs returning back to
near average Wednesday. An upper low begins to translate eastward
towards the Four Corners, with a transition back to southwesterly
flow aloft. This will continue to lead to the potential for near
daily thunderstorm chances off the higher terrain, though limited
instability will exist with eastward extent into western Nebraska.

By midweek, the upper low looks to weaken as it ejects eastward
into the Plains. Heights build aloft in the wake of the upper low,
with a ridge axis translating across the area Thursday. Solutions
then diverge with respect to the handling of an upper low
progressing across the Intermountain West. This looks to bring
additional rounds of thunderstorms, and the unsettled pattern
looks to persist late week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

For the KLBF terminal: Expect broken ceilings today with cloud
decks around 12000 FT AGL this morning, falling to around 6000 Ft
AGL this afternoon. There will be a threat for thunderstorms later
this evening with the greatest threat from 3z-6z Sunday. Ceilings
INVOF thunderstorms may reach down to around 3000 FT AGL. MVFR
ceilings will develop toward daybreak on Sunday with ceilings
around 1000 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will remain
mainly overcast over the next 24 hours. IFR ceilings this morning
will lift to around 2000 FT AGL by early afternoon. There will be
an off and on threat for showers and thunderstorms today through
early evening. The greatest threat for storms appears to be from
20z-24z this afternoon. Ceilings will gradually decrease this
evening, becoming IFR overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
353 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-110900-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
353 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 /253 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this
afternoon, and will persist into the night time hours. Some storms
may produce locally heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. Though the
threat for organized severe storms is low, an isolated strong to
severe storm is possible, mainly south of a line from Big Springs to
Brady.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Beginning Monday and continuing through Friday, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours
each day. At this time, the threat for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.