Wind Advisory 1, NWS Key West, FL

437 
WWUS72 KKEY 301617
NPWKEY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Key West FL
1217 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

FLZ076>078-301730-
/O.CAN.KKEY.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-230430T2100Z/
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the Communities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
1217 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Southwest to west winds have decreased below Wind Advisory
criteria. Therefore the wind advisory has been cancelled. 
However, expect windy conditions to continue through the afternoon
and evening, with a slow reduction in speed.

$$

NB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1025 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023
The island chain and local waters have been quiet up until this
evening when showers and thunderstorms from the Cuban land breeze
infiltrated the southern waters of the Straits of Florida and the
Hawk Channel. CAM'S guidance had the shower and thunderstorm
activity dying before reaching the island chain. Still, favorable
environmental conditions resulted in an explosion of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in portions of the southwest Straits of
Florida, the outer Gulf of Mexico, and the nearshore and offshore
waters of Bayside and Gulf side. The KBYX sounding showed an
atmosphere with little inhibition, modest cape, and significant
moisture content. From the 00Z sounding, the thermodynamics are
MLCAPE is 1342 J/kg with -26 J/kg of CIN, SCAPE was 3656 J/kg with
-4 J/kg of CIN, DCAPE 875 J/kg, adequate inflow 165, and bulk
shear of 63 kts. Additionally, the sounding revealed a mean wind
of 27 knots at 10kft. Winds are expected to mix down to the
surface by tomorrow, which will promote winds of 25 to 30 mph
across the island chain and Key West waterways.

A potent shortwave trough that exploded over the northeast Gulf
of Mexico will drive a cold front through the Panhandle of Florida
tonight and early Sunday morning. The boundary will continue to
advance through central and southern Florida early Sunday morning the
and near the Keys late Sunday morning or afternoon. The cold
front will bring robust showers and thunderstorms that may produce
wind gusts up to 40 knots with higher gusts and frequent cloud-
to-ground lightning strikes. However, some storms may become
severe tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) put the Florida
Keys in a Marginal Risk for severe weather tomorrow, with the
main threat being wind.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023
Moderate southerly breezes will turn to the south to southwest
and become fresh to strong during the overnight hours and Sunday
morning. A cold front will advance through the Peninsula of
Florida tonight through Sunday, then push through the Florida Keys
coastal waters sometime on Sunday. The frontal boundary will
bring robust showers and thunderstorms to the Key West local
waters. Winds will shift to the west behind the front, then veer
to the northwest and slacken Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
overnight hours. Tomorrow a cold front will bring robust showers
and thunderstorms into the island chain and promote sub-VFR
conditions. A tempo group was put in the TAF's due to the
possibility of convection developing during the morning hours on
Sunday. Surface winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 knots,
then winds will turn to the south to southwest and rapidly
increase to 20 to to 15 during the overnight hours or Sunday
morning.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...TW
Aviation/Nowcasts....TW/JAM
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
421 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-300915-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
421 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected today.

A Small Craft Advisory will be required across all of the Keys
coastal waters tonight, due to increasing southerly winds.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight. The primary
hazards will be lightning and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Sunday, with the
potential for a squall line to move through the Keys during the
day. The primary hazards will be lightning and strong wind gusts.
A few thunderstorms may become strong or severe, with the
potential for damaging wind gusts.

A Small Craft Advisory will be required across all of the Keys
coastal waters on Sunday due to strong southwest to west winds and
rough seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger across the
western Straits of Florida and offshore Gulf waters Sunday night,
where seas will remain above 7 feet due to northwest swell.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.