Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Key West, FL

622 
WWUS52 KKEY 252358
SVSKEY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

FLC087-260008-
/O.EXP.KKEY.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230726T0000Z/
Lower Keys in Monroe FL-
758 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds of 40 mph are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2454 8184 2459 8185 2459 8184 2467 8179
      2473 8168 2470 8162 2477 8160 2478 8154
      2480 8152 2466 8148 2453 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 054DEG 19KT 2461 8173 

$$

liw

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
258 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that has dominated the sensible
weather over the past several days for the Florida Keys has
progressed westward out of the area. This has been replaced by a
moist environment. KBYX Doppler radar reflectivity product
confirms this, with isolated light showers dotting much of the CWA.
Outside of these isolated showers, skies are mostly sunny. Ample
solar insolation has allowed temperatures to easily climb into the
lower to mid 90s yet again today. Coupled with dew points well
into the upper 70s, current heat indices at the island communities
are registering 105-115F.

For tonight, there appears to be two shots at measurable
precipitation across the island chain. The first will be driven by
any convection that forms over South Florida this afternoon. With
a northerly component to the steering flow, convection will
likely try to shoot southwestward towards the island chain this
evening, supported by CAM numerical guidance. Later tonight,
under freshened northeast to east steering flow and the
aforementioned moist environment, late overnight showers certainly
cannot be ruled out. Given these two windows for rainfall,
elected to nudge PoPs slightly upward overnight.

Overall forecast reasoning for beyond tonight has not changed
appreciably over the past twelve hours. A tropical upper
tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell currently positioned over western
Cuba will slowly advect northwestward over the next forty-eight
hours. In addition, a weak tropical wave north of the Lesser
Antilles will progress westward. The mean ridging that has
dominated the pattern over the past several days will continue to
decay. Forecast soundings highlight a saturated environment
commencing Wednesday. Augmented cloud cover should hopefully keep
the island chain below Heat Advisory criteria after today through
at least the end of the work week.

Right now, it appears the low- level trough and TUTT will
make their closest approaches to the Keys on Thursday, where
likely rain and chance- level thunder levels are advertised.
However, a continued moist profile will still keep rain chances
elevated through at least the early part of the weekend. Drier air
will then filter across the CWA, resulting in lowered PoPs for
Saturday night through Monday.

There are early indications that yet another TUTT cell will
progress westward towards the Florida Keys for the early to middle
part of next week. This may result in another period of unsettled
weather. Despite the elevated rain chances, temperatures are
expected to remain at or above normal throughout the entire
forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, generally easterly
breezes will peak and lull over the next several days. Breezes
will tend to peak during the late overnight hours, then lull
during the afternoon hours, resulting in bouts of choppy
conditions in the mornings. Mariners are reminded that winds and
seas will be higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF
period. Shower activity could pick up this evening into tonight but
confidence on timing and duration is too low to mention in the TAFs
at this time. Surface winds will be mainly northeast to east at near
10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  95  83  92  82 /  20  30  40  50
Marathon  95  84  93  82 /  20  40  50  50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-260815-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect today due to high temperatures
expected to reach the lower to mid 90s, with dew points in the
upper 70s, causing heat indices to climb as high as 112 degrees
during the midday and late afternoon hours.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. The
primary thunderstorm hazard will be lightning strikes and gusty,
shifting winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Rain and thunder changes are expected tomorrow through Friday.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day and
night. The primary thunderstorm hazard will be lightning strikes
and gusty, shifting winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
457 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     Waterspout       6 W Key West            24.56N 81.87W
07/25/2023                   GMZ044             FL   NWS Employee

            A skinny, rope-like waterpsout was detected
            on camera by NWS meteorologist west of Key
            West at 4:45 PM EDT. Condensation cloud
            extended from the cloud base to halfway
            down. No spray ring was visible. Duration
            was approximately 10 minutes.

&&

AJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
714 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

FLZ078-252345-
Monroe Lower Keys FL-
714 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lower Keys in Monroe
County through 745 PM EDT...

At 714 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cudjoe Key, or 8 miles northwest of Niles Channel Bridge, moving
south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Key West, Boca Chica, Big Coppitt Key, Boca Chica Channel Bridge,
Niles Channel Bridge, Saddlebunch Keys, Geiger Key, Sunset Key, Shark
Key and Little Torch Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 29.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2452 8182 2454 8184 2453 8186 2457 8197
      2463 8192 2459 8189 2458 8184 2467 8179
      2473 8168 2470 8162 2478 8159 2478 8154
      2481 8152 2483 8148 2479 8132 2460 8140
      2461 8143 2458 8146 2460 8151 2452 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 018DEG 21KT 2474 8153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

liw