Coastal Flood Statement 11, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
307 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
Since this morning's storms, the island chain has been mostly
sunny at times and rain-free. East winds average around 10 mph,
while Reef locations have occasionally increased to 15 to 20 knots
for tens of minutes due to the outflows from decaying
thunderstorms. The KBYX radar detects strong thunderstorms
southeast of the Upper Keys, and also a few long-track storms to
the west of Key West. Storm motion is slightly deviant, indicating
some meager organization to these storm cells. The KBYX VWP is
confounded by bird motions, and derived hodographs are likely
compromised. KBYX all-tilt data continues to sample weak
mesocyclones in the 8-10 kft elevation data for the storms to the
west of Key West.

.FORECAST...
The deep cyclone near the Yucatan Channel will lumber westward
over the next few days as a mean-layer anticyclone develops over
the southeastern Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will set the
stage for several days of rich, moisture laden east-
southeasterlies. With supergeostrophic flow racing to the
northeast around the apex of the ridge, the Keys will occasionally
be within the favorable right-entrance-region of the subtropical
jet. Forecast soundings and plan view depictions suggest a
remarkable stretch of unsettled weather through at least Thursday,
and although we highlight a return to near normal rain/thunder
chances by next weekend, this may not be the case. The trend over
the past severals days has been a little more breeze, POPs
trending higher, and the unsettled weather lasting longer. We have
leaned on these trends for both the digital and derived products.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a
disorganized trough near the Yucatan Channel will migrate westward
over the next few days as Atlantic ridging builds westward into
Florida. Breezes will be primarily gentle to moderate and out of
the east. Above normal rain and thunder chances will continue for
the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF
period. Into this evening the terminals will remain mostly dry, but
VCSH is included starting at 0z when shower activity is expected to
pick back up. TEMPOs will be included for MVFR conditions if
thunderstorms approach either terminal at that time. Near-surface
winds out of convection will be mainly southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  92  83  90 /  60  50  50  60
Marathon  82  93  83  91 /  50  50  50  60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....JPR

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
535 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-250945-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
535 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. The
primary thunderstorm hazards will be cloud to surface lightning
strikes, along with gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be cloud to surface
lightning strikes, along with gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.