Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
340 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 236 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

The forecast was updated around mid day to take trends into
consideration-- holding onto greater precip coverage in our
northern counties today, and lowering temps due to extensive
precip. The severe wx threat has waned for much of the area due to
cooler surface temps. Our southwestern counties, south of the
widespread rain, have the best combination of elevated temps and
dew points and stand the best shot at svr wx. With flooding
already having occurred in our northern counties, will need to
monitor the expected increase in precip coverage ahead of the cold
front this evening. At least models seem to suggest that the
heaviest precip this evening may be over the southern part of the
area, sparing some of the more northern areas hardest hit during
the day.

UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023

The continued trend for some of the heavier rains to fall to the
north per radar trends and the CAMs consensus - with some gaudy
QPF from various runs of the HRRR - have prompted an expansion of
the Flash Flood Watch further north in eastern Kentucky. Have
updated the grids primarily to fine tune the PoPs and beef up QPF
north. Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td
grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshened set of zones, HWO, FFA, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 535 AM EST THU FEB 16 2023

Key Messages:

1. Widespread showers, with times of thunderstorms and heavy
rain, can be expected through tonight.

2. Severe thunderstorm potential primarily for our western and
northern areas (northwest of Sandy Hook to Williamsburg) this
evening and into the night with damaging wind gusts the main
threat.

3. Turning colder late tonight after the front moves through with
snow showers through the day on Friday. Any light accumulations
will be limited to the higher terrain near the Virginia border.

09Z sfc analysis shows a developing area of low pressure just west
of the state riding northeast along a well defined boundary off
to the northwest of Kentucky. This features a tightening pressure
gradient supporting south winds of near 10 mph through eastern
Kentucky this morning. It is these winds, and additional ones
aloft, that are pushing higher PW air into the state along with
sustaining a warm air mass. As a result, within the WAA sector of
the main low, bands of showers and embedded thunderstorm are
moving slowly northeast through the area bringing decent QPF to
the area with the pockets of heavier rain occurring this morning.
In this environment, temperatures and dewpoints are fairly
uniform in the unseasonably mild and wet mid to upper 50s. While
sfc based instability is still paltry over the area predawn, some
limited elevated CAPE has been able to keep thunder going amid the
main shower clusters.

The models are in surprisingly good agreement aloft through the
period especially considering the dynamic pattern affecting the
region. They all depict deep layer southwest flow tightening up
today and into tonight as an opening up, once deep, 5h wave lifts
from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by Friday morning.
This process manages to maintain the amplified pattern aloft
through Friday by having a significant portion of the trough
holding back through the Southern Plains even as its main core
stretches off to the east. This will bring some stark height falls
to eastern Kentucky tonight and Friday with a quite healthy band
of energy sweeping across the JKL CWA while the 5h trough axis
does not pass until near 00Z Saturday. The small model spread
supports using the NBM guidance as the starting point with most
adjustments centered on severe parameters and QPF - particularly
in the near term.

Sensible weather will feature four seasons of very active weather
through the end of the work week. The ongoing heavy rain and
thunderstorm threat early this morning will set the stage for
potential flooding from training cells through the morning -
capped off by a band of additional heavy rain moving through this
evening and tonight. The main concern for this situation is the
establishment of prolonged bands of training convection this
morning saturating the soils and producing excess runoff where
they set up. This remains a confidence challenge as the hi-res
models have had a hard time pinpointing a consistent location for
the band of highest QPF. Latest HRRR runs continue to shift to the
northwest which could spare the Cumberland and parts of the
Kentucky basins the worst runoff, but also target the Red and
Licking basins. Up to 6 inches of its model QPF heightens
concern for these locations. There is still enough model and
ensemble support for heavy rain through the southeast 2/3rds of
the area, and in conjunction with WPC's excessive rain outlook, to
prompt the issuance of a Flood Watch into early Friday morning.
However, near term convective and CAM trends may necessitate a
shift in the Flood Watch and best QPF more northwest. This
situation will be monitored through the morning for updates to
headlines and forecast specifics as needed.

The next weather challenge will come from the anticipated pre-
frontal thunderstorm line moving west to east later this evening
with a strong potential for severe weather developing in central
Kentucky and progressing east toward the JKL CWA. This line of
storms will probably weaken as it runs out of the best
instability when moving into eastern Kentucky. However strong to
damaging convective winds gusts will be the main threat from these
storms when they get here, though some large hail or an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out should the convective line stay robust
as it arrives. We continue to message the Enhanced and Slight
Risk for severe weather this evening and into the night for this
front.

The front clears the area by dawn Friday with strong CAA in its
wake and that will support ample lingering pcpn transitioning to
snow showers from west to east as the column cools. Look for the
upslope winds post frontal to support snow showers through most of
the day over the area, though warm ground and road temperatures
will minimize and zero out any impacts - outside of maybe the
highest peaks near the Virgnia border. A return to winter weather
will be a stark contrast as highs today in the mid and upper 60s
are replaced by afternoon readings in the mid 30s for most on
Friday.

Did not adjust temperatures much from the NBM through the period
but did favor the PoPs and QPF from the CAMs today and tonight -
exceeding them on Friday to better capture the upslope snow
showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and pleasant weather to
eastern Kentucky over the weekend. It will be a bit cooler on
Saturday, as cooler air will still be in place. For Sunday, we
should see a nice warm up, as winds pick up out of the south and
clouds clear off during the day. In fact, above normal
temperatures will likely prevail through out the extended period,
as south to southwest winds persist and strengthen across the
area. The coolest days should be Saturday and Monday, when we will
see highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s and the low to mid 50s
respectively. For the rest of the upcoming week, daily highs will
max out in the 60s and lower 70s. Nightly lows will fall into the
low to mid 30s on the coolest nights, and in the 40s and lower 50s
on the warmest nights.

A series of storm systems will bring repeated chances for rain to
eastern Kentucky through out the week, beginning on Monday. After
that, periods of rain will occur through the end of the week,
with the afternoon and early evening hours being most active. It
will be a bit breezy all week, but we could see southwest winds of
15 to 20 mph, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, possible toward the end
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

Conditions varied widely across the region at the start of the
period, from VLIFR to VFR. The worst conditions were scattered
within an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting
most places more than about 40 NM north of the TN border.

The general scenario will persist for a while this afternoon.
While precip persists most of the time from around KJKL northward,
more showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread eastward
into our southern counties near the TN border after about 22Z,
reaching KEKQ 22-23Z, and the VA border by around 03Z. With precip
expected at times area wide this evening, sub-VFR conditions are
anticipated, at least at times. A cold front will pass through
from west to east between about 03Z and 08Z, and precip will begin
to taper off after the front comes through, mostly exiting the
area by 12Z. However, mostly MVFR conditions are expected behind
the front through the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-171230-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
730 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Widespread showers will affect the area today and tonight, with
times of thunderstorms expected. This will likely result in heavy to
excessive rainfall, particularly along the Red, Licking, and
Kentucky River basins, but also the Cumberland, leading to a
potential for flash flooding and steep rises on area rivers.

In addition, a band of strong thunderstorms are anticipated this
afternoon and tonight ahead of a potent cold front. The strongest of
these storms could also bring damaging wind gusts along with a small
potential for large hail or an isolated tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to pass along any storm, flooding, or heavy
rain reports today and tonight.

GREIF/GEERTSON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLOOD            MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
02/16/2023                   MONTGOMERY         KY   PUBLIC

            THE COUNTY WARNING POINT HAD RECEIVED
            REPORTS OF WATER OVER SECONDARY ROADS ALONG
            HIGHWAY 460 EAST OF MOUNT STERLING. SOME OF
            THOSE ROADS WERE GOING TO BE CLOSED, BUT THE
            EXACT ROADS WERE NOT KNOWN AT TIME OF THIS
            REPORT. THERE WAS ALSO WATER OVER THE ROAD
            AT CENTRAL PIKE AND WHITAKER LANE IN MOUNT
            STERLING.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLOOD            MEANS                   37.95N 83.76W
02/16/2023                   MENIFEE            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            460 WEST CLOSED NEAR MENIFEE/MONTGOMERY
            COUNTY LINE...NEAR SLATE CREEK.

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
339 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     FLOOD            2 E BONANZA             37.69N 82.84W
02/16/2023                   FLOYD              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER OVER KY
            1427/ABBOTT CREEK ROAD NEAR CREEK SIDE
            DRIVE.

&&

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
352 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

KYZ068-079-083-162130-
Wayne KY-Rockcastle KY-Pulaski KY-
352 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Wayne,
Pulaski and western Rockcastle Counties through 430 PM EST...

At 352 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Danville to near Jamestown. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Faubush, Cains Store, Naomi, Pointer, Nancy, Pulaski County Park,
  Magnum, Hogue, Stab, Somerset, Science Hill, Dabney, Bobtown,
  Somerset Pulaski Airport, Elihu and Ruth.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 60 and
72.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and
31.
 Louis B. Nunn Parkway

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8494 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3712 8490 3736 8456 3733 8451
      3748 8444 3747 8438 3754 8435 3751 8427
      3752 8420 3690 8459 3689 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 245DEG 44KT 3769 8469 3696 8516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
429 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

KYZ058-059-068-069-079-080-162200-
Jackson KY-Estill KY-Rockcastle KY-Powell KY-Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
429 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Powell,
central Laurel, Estill, eastern Pulaski, western Jackson and
Rockcastle Counties through 500 PM EST...

At 428 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Richmond to Somerset Pulaski
Airport. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Winston, Kings Station, Rice Station, Fox, Blackburn, Witt and
  Station Camp around 440 PM EST.
  Irvine, Ravenna, Billows, Wiseman Crossing Station, Calloway
  Crossing, Hargett, Sandhill, North Irvine, Weedon and West Irvine
  around 445 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Wood Creek Lake,
Cottage Furnace, Hardwick, Vaughns Mill, Hare, Bernstadt, Hazel
Patch, Camp Wildcat, Luner, Pitts, London, Stanton, East Bernstadt,
Victory, Knowlton, Carmichael, Mershons, Lamero, Pittsburg, Templer,
Atlanta, Peoples, Parrot, Eberle, Deese, Dabolt, Carico, Middlefork
and Ardery.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 21 and 24.
 Hal Rogers Parkway near mile marker 1.
 Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 38 and
72.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Laurel County between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 20 and
40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 8445 3747 8438 3754 8435 3751 8426
      3752 8420 3756 8416 3756 8409 3765 8413
      3767 8409 3777 8409 3786 8381 3707 8411
      3697 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 245DEG 58KT 3764 8430 3705 8461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BB