Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
539 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 538 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

Severe thunderstorms area entering the northern portion of the
forecast area from the west. Unlike recent days, precip and
clouds got out of the way to allow significant heating and
destabilization today, and dew points climbed through the 70s. An
upper level trough flattening the ridge of recent days is
supporting a cold front approaching from the northwest. The
combination is allowing thunderstorms to develop, and with modest
shear coupled with the strong instability, there is a severe
weather threat. Winds continue to look like the main threat, but
large hail can't be ruled out, especially if any discrete
supercells develop. There is also a very small tornado risk should
any supercells interact with boundaries, or if circulations occur
along lines.

Most of the thunderstorms will exit to the southeast later
tonight, and the severe weather threat will end. The cold front
will lag behind the initial storms, and should pass overnight and
Monday morning. The air mass will only transition slowly behind
the front, and enough moisture could linger so that with diurnal
warming/destabilization some more showers/thunderstorms could
develop during the day. However, they would be garden variety.

Any remaining showers/thunderstorms will end Monday evening.
Clouds decrease during the night as surface high pressure settles
nearby by morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

Still an unsettled long-term period on tap. The shortwave that
impacted the Ohio Valley during the short term period will finally
shift eastward on Tuesday. However, high pressure across the region
will be weak at best, and models show quite a bit of lingering
moisture and instability just south of the state throughout the
daytime hours. Therefore, expect to remain mostly dry Tuesday, but
can't rule out some isolated to scattered convection in the
afternoon hours, especially near the TN border. The same will hold
true for Wednesday, as weak surface pressure remains across eastern
Kentucky, but a shortwave and more unstable airmass (possible weak
boundary) also interact to our south, bringing scattered pops into
the southern CWA by the afternoon and early evening. Overall, it's
just a messy pattern, with warm and humid air in place, prime to
fire off typical summertime afternoon/evening convection across the
region.

The regime begins to change on Thursday however, as a defined
frontal system sets up west of the state during the morning hours,
and begins to push eastward throughout the day. This front will be
connected to a low pressure system well to our north, shifting east
across north-central Quebec throughout the day. Obviously the
farther away you get from the center of the best energy, the weaker
the boundary and impacts...but that doesn't mean we won't see some
weather from it. It will be an odd system, pushed forward by a
longwave trough sinking southward into the Central Conus. The front
will make it into western/central KY by Thursday evening, but models
seem to slow it's progression so that it takes most of Friday into
Friday night before it finally makes it all the way through eastern
Kentucky. Again, this is a messy pattern, and there has been quite a
bit of model uncertainty over the last week, so this is no exception
- confidence in exact timing and impacts are therefore a bit low.
But there is at least decent agreement of this lingering boundary
and continued scattered to likely rain and thunderstorm chances from
Thursday through Friday as a result. Given the weaker state of the
frontal boundary, models also show weakening of convection during
the overnight hours Thursday night, re-surging during the daytime
hours on Friday.

Even after the boundary finally shifts east of the state on
Saturday, it will still be in close enough proximity to spark off
more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the day, especially
in our eastern CWA. The GFS also has some lingering afternoon
convection across much of the central portion of the state, likely
due to some weak shortwaves moving over the state - which is
reflected in the scattered pops across much of the CWA from the NBM.

Unfortunately the weather pattern doesn't get much better to round
out the weekend. A larger shortwave is predicted to pass through the
state during the day Sunday, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing
likely pops across the state, especially in the afternoon and
evening. NBM is going mainly scattered, but given that it's day 8,
and there is still plenty of uncertainty, not going to increase pops
at this time.

As far as temperatures, without any large airmass changes (other
than the weak front moving through Thursday and Friday),
temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady-state through the
period. Daytime temps will be warmest ahead of the front, starting
in the mid 80s on Tuesday, and peaking in the upper 80s just before
it's passage on Thursday. Friday through Sunday will drop slightly
back into the low to mid 80s. Either way, with so much moisture in
the air, expect it to be humid and feel warmer than it really is.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. Thunderstorms
were occurring in southern IL/IN into western/central KY. These
will continue to develop and head east, with the most likely time
for activity here during the evening hours. Some of them may
contain hail and strong winds, in addition to IFR or worse
conditions. Thunderstorms should depart to the east overnight.
After this, much of the area is forecast to have MVFR ceilings
develop from the predawn hours into Monday morning. However, there
is only modest confidence in the occurrence of these ceilings.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
449 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
449 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected, especially during the evening hours.
Some of them could be severe, with damaging winds being the main
threat. However, hail and locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Monday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of wind damage, hail,
or flooding through tonight.

HAL

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