Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
431 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 431 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2023

Things are ramping up quickly this afternoon.

It started during the morning hours, when a warm front lifted north
across eastern Kentucky, leading to a round of showers and a few
rumbles of thunder. This front was connected to a low pressure
system located across eastern Missouri during the morning. As the
low pressure system continued to move eastward throughout the early
afternoon hours, this pushed the warm front northeast of the CWA,
taking the rainfall with it. This then gifted us several hours of
drying and even some clearing of the clouds in some locations.
Clearing is not good - it allows for warming and increases the
instability in turn.

Now as the low pressure system continues to move across southern
Indiana, it is dragging a cold front with it. This cold front is the
epicenter for afternoon convection development. Our proximity to the
low pressure system, and a relatively cold airmass trying to push
out the warm one in place, is leading to some decent instability.
Lapse rates aren't overly impressive, but still good. Winds in the
low levels are slightly veering, helping to increase the spin and
organization of any storms that move into eastern Kentucky. The
winds aloft are also quite strong. CAPE values are decent after 21Z,
but nothing overly impressive. Can't rule out a few storms producing
quarter sized or perhaps even slightly large hail. But really
watching out for the winds as these storms roll through. No doubt
there will be some trees down, which if they land on a power line,
could lead to some power outages as well.

Rainfall still is not that much of a concern. We really need the
rain right now with the increasing drought conditions in place.
Between 1 and 1.75 inches (forecast), or even upwards to 2.5 inches
(worst case) would easily be absorbed. The bigger concern is how
fast this rain falls. Heavy rainfall rates may cause drainage and
soils to be overwhelmed, which could in turn lead to some isolated
instances of flash flooding.

The storms are now ongoing across central KY, nearing the JKL CWA
border, mainly in line with where SPC has an enhanced risk boss.
Many of these storms are growing quite large and some are spinning,
which has prompted LMK and OHX to issue several warnings already. We
are ready to follow suit as they cross into our CWA. Thankfully, the
farther east they travel, the less instability they will have to
play with - so the hope is that they begin falling apart east of I-
75, though anything is still possible at this point.

Once the cold front passes through the CWA just after 6Z, expect
most of the storms and rain to exit with it. The caveat will be the
high terrain along the VA border, where northeast flow could lead to
some continued upslope precipitation through Monday morning and into
the first part of the afternoon. This flow is also notorious for
keeping clouds banked into the region, so adjusted in grids (along
with temps) accordingly. Expect generally upper 50s to low 60s for
temps overnight.

Clouds will finally break apart and exit for Monday afternoon. Even
with the return of sunshine, a much colder airmass will be in place,
with strong northerly flow aloft will inhibit best temperature
climbs. Highs tomorrow will top out int he low 70s for most
locations. This colder airmass will then translate into the
overnight as well, as surface high pressure begins to encroach on
Kentucky, and winds are quite light. Temperatures should fall quite
nicely given the clear skies and strong subsidence, with some of the
deepest valleys likely decoupling. Overnight lows Monday night will
generally be in the 40s, with a few locations staying right around
50.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2023

The latest model data suggests that a large trough of low pressure
will be spinning over the Great Lakes to begin the period on
Tuesday morning. General ridging is expected to be in place
across the Great Plains, with an upper trough in place along the
central Rockies and more troughing troughiness in place over the
western CONUS. This pattern will slowly shift eastward as the
eastern trough pushes off to the east Tuesday through Thursday. It
appears that short waves will be moving by to our north and
south, and may bring a few showers and storms to our far northern
and southern areas Tuesday through Wednesday. We should see short
break from any rain Wednesday night and Thursday morning, as weak
ridging at the surface briefly influences our weather. Another
round of scattered showers and storms may be on tap for late
Thursday into early Thursday evening, as moisture migrating around
the back side of the large departing upper trough interacts with
our terrain and the heat of the day. Thursday night should be dry,
but more rain is in the offing for Friday through Sunday, as
another large trough of low pressure moves out of the southern
Plains and across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should
experience multiple rounds of precipitation across the area as
this system makes its way across the region.

Temperatures, after starting off below normal on Tuesday, should
rebound to generally above normal values from Wednesday onward as
generally southerly flow sets up across the area. Daily highs in
the low to mid 80s are possible, along with nightly lows in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will be persistently breezy and a
bit gusty during the passage of each low pressure system this
coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2023

Going to be a complex forecast over the next 18+ hours. A warm
front has lifted through eastern Kentucky, with most of the rain
now having exited the TAF sites, but VFR to MVFR CIGS remain at
most locations. Skies will clear out for a few more hours, before
another stronger line of showers and thunderstorms develops along
the approaching cold front and moves through the TAF sites
generally between 4pm (20Z) and 9pm (1Z) this afternoon/evening.
Lingering rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are also
possible into the first part of the overnight until the front
passes through. As these stronger storms move through between 4
and 9pm, expect skies to quickly deteriorate, reaching IFR during
the overnight and remaining so into Monday morning. VIS will vary
throughout the evening and overnight based on the timing and
intensity of the storms moving through, but plan for generally
MVFR VIS conditions. Prevailing winds will start off southerly at
the beginning of the TAF period, but will become more W to WNW
behind the front and will stay here through the remainder of the
TAF period. However, any storms that pass through will have the
capability of mixing down much stronger winds, potentially
damaging. Conditions will begin to improve the last 6 hours of the
TAF period between 12 and 18Z Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106-108-109-111>118-122045-
Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-
Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Morgan-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-
Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead,
Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London,
Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg,
Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan,
West Liberty, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins,
and Whitesburg
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 268 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected at times through tonight. Some of these
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. In addition, there is a
slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with these storms, though
hail up to half dollar size and an isolated tornado are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours along the
Virginia border.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through
Saturday, mainly during afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of damaging winds,
hail, and or heavy rain that may occur later today or tonight.

KYZ044-051-052-104-107-110-119-120-122045-
Fleming-Bath-Rowan-Elliott-Johnson-Floyd-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Morehead,
Sandy Hook, Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
444 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected at times through tonight. Some of these
storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. In addition, there is a
slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat with these storms, though
hail up to half dollar size and an isolated tornado are also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours along the
Virginia border.

Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Wednesday through
Saturday, mainly during afternoon and evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of damaging winds,
hail, and or heavy rain that may occur later today or tonight.

JKL

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
649 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     Hail             2 ENE Pulaski County Pa 37.07N 84.68W
06/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Pulaski            KY   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

jmw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Hail             1 N Somerset            37.10N 84.61W
06/11/2023  E1.25 inch       Pulaski            KY   Public

&&

jmw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson KY
652 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Faubush             37.06N 84.80W
06/11/2023                   Pulaski            KY   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1
            E Faubush. Trees were reported down for
            about a mile along Highway 1664 at Pierce
            Road just west of Nancy. Many of the trees
            were partially rotten or small, and
            preliminary assessment is straightline
            winds.

&&

jmw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
656 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

KYZ115>117-112330-
Clay KY-Perry KY-Leslie KY-
656 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Leslie,
central Perry and east central Clay Counties through 730 PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hosea, or near Hyden, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wendover and Kaliopi around 700 PM EDT.
  Hyden, Dryhill, Toulouse, Cinda and Confluence around 705 PM EDT.
  Wooton, Avawam, Frew, Smilax, Daley, Mosley Bend and Cutshin
  around 710 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Hazard, Diablock,
Jeff, Viper and Bulan.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 32 and 59.
 Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8363 3734 8317 3727 8312 3725 8312
      3723 8310 3715 8304 3712 8306 3702 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 247DEG 38KT 3714 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
722 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

KYZ080-085>087-116-112345-
Whitley KY-Clay KY-Knox KY-Bell KY-Laurel KY-
722 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Laurel,
Bell, Knox, Whitley and southern Clay Counties through 745 PM EDT...

At 722 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rockholds, or 7 miles northeast of Williamsburg, moving east at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilton, Moore Hill and Louden around 725 PM EDT.
  Indian Creek, Dishman Springs, Permon, Arkle, Rossland, Bertha
  Station, Clate, King, Gray and Bryants Store around 730 PM EDT.
  Barbourville, Emmanuel, Heidrick, Lowell, Baileys Switch, Bentley
  Station, Swanpond, Garrich, Swan Lake and Hubbs around 735 PM EDT.
  Hinkle, Cannon, Yeager, Bimble, Girdler, Baughman, Boone Heights,
  Green Road, Jarvis and Artemus around 740 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Barnyard, Hammond,
Dewitt, Scalf, Walker, Salt Gum, Fount, Old Flat Lick, Mills and
Haven.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 1 and
33.
 U.S. Highway 25 East in Bell County between mile markers 1 and 18.
 U.S. Highway 25 East in Knox County between mile markers 1 and 26.
 U.S. Highway 25 East in Laurel County between mile markers 0 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
south central and southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8422 3662 8426 3703 8424 3710 8358
      3682 8350 3681 8351 3677 8349 3673 8350
      3670 8347 3667 8346 3667 8351 3664 8361
      3661 8367 3658 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 251DEG 45KT 3683 8410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BATZ