Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Jackson, KY

266 
WWUS53 KJKL 042051
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
451 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

KYC013-095-042059-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-230604T2100Z/
Harlan KY-Bell KY-
451 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARLAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN BELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and has moved into Virginia. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled. However gusty winds are still possible with this 
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3675 8359 3678 8328 3676 8324 3673 8323
      3670 8334 3667 8343 3667 8353 3665 8354
      3664 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 074DEG 11KT 3668 8348 

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2023

Areas of dense valley fog which had formed mainly over portions of
the Big Sandy River basin hung on until between 10 and 10:30 am
due to overachieving convection from yesterday evening in the
region. Temperatures are running a few degrees cooler compared to
yesterday at this time. Forecast highs look right on target, with
mid to upper 80s common by late this afternoon. Isolated to widely
scattered convection will threaten the southeast half of the
forecast area today, with a diffuse inverted trough still in
place. Forecast DCAPE is still above 1000 J/kg this afternoon,
but the better gradient looks to push off into the Tennessee
Valley with time and low level lapse rates will not be quite as
steep compared to yesterday. Still, some locally stronger wind
gusts can not be completely ruled out in the strongest cells.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2023

Current forecast remains on track so have just added in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These updates have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2023

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north of the area with
lower pressure in the south. This has put eastern Kentucky in an
environment where clouds and any convection tend to drift east to
west. A few of these storms affected far eastern parts of the JKL
CWA yesterday evening and left behind some needed rainfall. This
in turn has led to areas of dense valley fog forming through
Martin and Pike counties most clearly, but also affecting nearby
places. The mostly clear skies and light winds were also a
contributing factor. Accordingly, an SPS and social media post
have been issued highlighting the dense valley fog in these areas
early this morning. Otherwise, a small ridge to valley
temperature difference is occurring with readings ranging from the
mid 50s in the eastern sheltered spots to the low to mid 60s in
the more open terrain and on most hills.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a continuation of the
retrograding pattern over the region. However, the ridge to the
northwest will move further away while a closed low 5h tough
approaches from the New England coast sending height falls and
mid level energy into Kentucky from the northeast. The initial
impulse will slip through this part of the state this morning
mainly affecting our southern zones while the next one arrives
late on Monday. Each of these features should be enough to help
generate localized and spotty convection both this afternoon and
again on Monday afternoon. The small model spread has warranted
using the blended NBM guidance as the starting point for the grids
with little in the way of adjustments needed.

Sensible weather will feature more warm conditions under partly to
mostly sunny skies. However the higher resolution near term models
are indicating that some of the smoke from the Canadian fires will
drift into the area and add a bit of haze while also affecting
sky cover, especially on Monday. Otherwise, tracking the upper
level influences some small convection is favored in the
Cumberland Valley this afternoon into the early evening, with
similar chance on Monday. Most places will stay dry though with
even spots seeing the convection not easing their rain deficits by
much. Improvement may not arrive until later in the week for the
majority of the area.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to again
include more terrain details at night for the temperatures, lower
afternoon dewpoints, and also to incorporate the CAMs PoPs
through the period for timing and spatial details.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2023

Key Points:

* Dry and hot to start before a cold front drops in from the north
  and brings scattered showers and storms to the area on
  Wednesday.

* Temps Start out in the mid 80s before cooling into the mid to
  upper 70s through Saturday.

The long term will start off with a blocky pattern across
North America with a large upper level trough covering eastern
Canada and into the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and into the upper Great
Lakes. An upper level cut off low will sit across California and
into the Great Basin region while high pressure sits between these
two features. A surface high centered to our northwest will control
our area through Tuesday night. An upper low centered within the
eastern trough will churn across Nova Scotia and New Brunswick
Canada and will eventually swing multiple short wave disturbances
southward through Ontario and into the Upper Great Lakes. A short
wave will drop through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday which will bring
scattered showers and storms to the area. A lingering threat for
showers and storms will continue into Thursday but should remain
confined to the higher terrain along the south. Upper level flow
will remain from the northwest and will keep temps a bit cooler
through Saturday before flow becomes more zonal and surface winds
become gain a southerly component. Global model agreement begins to
deteriorate toward the end of the period so decided to stick close
to the NBM which brings in precipitation Saturday night.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the period.
Isolated convection will likely occur through 02z, keeping a small
threat of temporary and localized MVFR or worse conditions in
place. This isolated convection will likely remain just southeast
of a line from KSJS to KSME, so have not included any mention in
the TAFs. Once the convection dies off early this evening, valley
fog will develop once again overnight into early Monday morning,
bringing MVFR or lower conditions. Have included some MVFR fog at
KSME between 08 and 12z, with increased low level moisture in
place. Will keep the rest of TAF sites fog-free for now. The fog
will burn off by around 14z, with a return of VFR conditions. Winds
will be variable at around 5 kts or less through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1208 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051615-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
1208 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible through early this evening, mainly
south of the Mountain Parkway.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and early evening
hours of Monday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JKL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

KYZ087-088-042045-
Bell KY-Harlan KY-
356 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Harlan
and east central Bell Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 356 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Peepace Store, or near Harlan, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Peepace Store and Sunshine around 400 PM EDT.
  Martins Fork, Mary Alice, Teetersville and Elcomb around 405 PM
  EDT.
  Liggett, Hensley Store and White Star around 410 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kentenia, Tremont,
Wallins Creek, Coldiron, Pathfork, Cubage, Black Snake, Blackmont,
Molus and Stony Fork Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3685 8354 3685 8326 3674 8316 3674 8320
      3673 8323 3670 8334 3667 8343 3667 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 084DEG 10KT 3674 8330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP