Tornado Warning 51, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1219 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak pressure pattern over the area with main sfc low back over the
northwestern GOMEX, weak trough well offshore of our coast, and
another trough over southeast GA. Rounds of scattered mainly light
showers still affecting the area thanks to a couple of shortwave
troughs rotating southwest to northeast over the southeast states.
Deep layer flow is southwest about 25 mph, with now rising PWATs of
about 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The sfc low is expected to translate
northeastward to northern AL this afternoon and to the TN and Ohio
Valley later tonight. The mean sfc flow will turn more to the south
and increase over the area today while additional moisture flows
into the region from the southwest, with PWATs of 2 inches across
most areas with mean deep flow increased to about 30-35 mph. Best
forcing will be tend to be located north of the area today, but weak
shortwave disturbances coupled with increased instability will lead
to high rain chances, especially over northwest zones at 70-90
percent. The HRRR and other models suggest some potential for a few
thunderstorms this afternoon. Models also suggest some storms may be
organized from just north of Live Oak FL to Nahunta and possibly as
far east as Brunswick. The threat still seems low at this time.
These storms would be capable of isolated wind damage so we will
continue to monitor. Given the strengthening south flow, temps will
again hit around 80 to the lower 80s over northeast FL and probably
remaining in the 70s over southeast GA where the precip chances are
highest.

Tonight, mean deep layer flow turns more southwesterly, and elevated
rain chances will be noted from southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley.
The cold front will slowly advance to northwest GA to the western FL
panhandle late. A few embedded thunderstorms are still expected
despite the waning instability. The other concern is for areas of
fog to develop but it's possible with the sfc wind of 5-10 mph that
dense fog development would be brief and isolated but is include din
the forecast. Temps will be much higher than normal, and may be near
record warm minimums.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the forecast area on Sunday with weather conditions clearing in the
evening and overnight hours as high pressure conditions build in
following the frontal passage. Last remaining traces of
precipitation will clear out on Monday with dry weather and westerly
flow holding into the beginning of the week. Temperatures will cool
after the weekend with high temps on Monday reaching up into the
lower 70s and upper 60s and then dropping down into the 40s
overnight as colder air settles into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern for next
week with dry weather expected through the end of the week. A dry
cold front will press down into the forecast area from out of the
north by midweek, bringing clearing skies and breezy northwesterly
winds. Cooling trend will continue through next week with temperatures
dropping to be well below the seasonal average by the later part
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

TAF sites will bounce between LIFR and MVFR through 00Z before
deteriorating overnight into prevailing IFR/LIFR. Low stratus has
lingered across the NE FL TAF sites. Southerly flow will attempt
to lift ceilings and visibilities through the day. A warm front
draped across the I-10 corridor has led to mainly light and
variable winds today. Showers with embedded storms will spread in
from the west beginning between 19-22Z. Thunderstorm chances
remain low and so have VCTS. Waves of rainfall will continue
through the period. Ceilings and visibilities drop into IFR/LIFR
due to fog, low stratus and showers overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Southerly flow will remain in effect this weekend before the frontal
passage, which looks to be late Sunday night. Patchy to areas of sea
fog are possible at times through Sunday morning . Otherwise, winds
and seas will be below advisory criteria in the meantime. Winds will
increase late Monday and Monday night, and could be near advisory
levels. Another dry cold frontal passage expected mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to the seas of 3+ feet which
yields breakers of at least 2-3 ft. Fairly similar conditions
expected on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Total rainfall amounts likely to be around the 0.25 to 1 inch range
ahead of the cold frontal passage through Sunday, highest amounts
over southeast GA and Suwannee Valley area. NBM model (using near
worst case for higher precip) depicts up to near 3 inches over the
far western zones from just north Live Oak FL to Alma GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  76  55  71 /  60  80  20  10
SSI  64  76  60  73 /  60  50  20  10
JAX  67  79  60  74 /  40  60  20  10
SGJ  67  80  63  75 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  68  80  63  75 /  30  60  10  10
OCF  68  80  64  76 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
146 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

FLZ021-021930-
Suwannee FL-
146 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SUWANNEE COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM
EST...

At 146 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dowling Park to 7 miles west of Luraville
to 9 miles west of Mayo. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts around 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Dowling Park, Mcalpin, Luraville, Newburn, and Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3026 8324 3033 8321 3039 8294 3023 8285
      3007 8287 3005 8304 3008 8307 3009 8311
      3011 8312 3010 8314 3011 8316 3009 8318
      3010 8321 3012 8323 3017 8323 3018 8325
      3023 8324 3023 8325 3025 8324 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 257DEG 27KT 3023 8332 3015 8329 3007 8333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CHANEY