Tornado Warning 29, NWS Jacksonville, FL

579 
WWUS52 KJAX 161123
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
723 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLC041-161132-
/O.CAN.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230616T1145Z/
Gilchrist FL-
723 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILCHRIST COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2966 8241 2949 8249 2948 8249 2948 8254
      2949 8256 2954 8256 2954 8263 2956 8265
      2971 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 300DEG 20KT 2959 8262 

$$

FLC001-161145-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230616T1145Z/
Alachua FL-
723 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALACHUA COUNTY...
    
At 722 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles northwest of Archer, or 10 miles north of
Bronson, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Archer around 740 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Newberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 8241 2949 8249 2948 8249 2948 8254
      2949 8256 2954 8256 2954 8263 2956 8265
      2971 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 300DEG 20KT 2959 8262 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

AB

400 
WWUS52 KJAX 161134
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
734 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLC001-161145-
/O.CON.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230616T1145Z/
Alachua FL-
734 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALACHUA COUNTY...
    
At 734 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Archer, or 9 miles northeast of Bronson, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Archer around 740 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 8241 2949 8249 2948 8249 2948 8254
      2949 8256 2954 8256 2954 8259 2958 8261
      2966 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1134Z 300DEG 20KT 2955 8255 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

AB

754 
WWUS52 KJAX 161137
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
737 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLC001-161147-
/O.EXP.KJAX.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230616T1145Z/
Alachua FL-
737 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALACHUA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
745 AM EDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

LAT...LON 2966 8241 2949 8249 2948 8249 2948 8254
      2949 8256 2954 8256 2954 8259 2958 8261
      2966 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 300DEG 20KT 2954 8254 

$$

AB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FLOOD THREAT POTENTIALLY INCREASES AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEK AS A
STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REDEVELOPS...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

The pattern with high pressure to the southeast, and a frontal zone
across the southeastern US at the surface, and troughing aloft will
persist this period. This will continue to provide for a moist west
southwest flow, which will keep the east coast sea breeze from
moving ashore. Several rounds of convection are expected through
Tonight. Timing these rounds to when waves are expected to move
through the upper trough. The first of these waves moves through
early this morning. The next wave moves in late this
afternoon/evening, which is expected to trigger round of strong to
severe storms that may continue into the night. Anticipate enough of
the late morning into afternoon hours to be dry which will lead to
diurnal heating to help fuel initial storm development.

Due to the expected cloud and shower coverage, temperatures will
trend a little below normal Today. Near to a little above normal
lows for Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Troughing aloft over New England will be reinforced on Saturday,
while ridging remains situated over Deep South Texas and
northern Mexico. This weather pattern will maintain deep
northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states, which will
continue to advect shortwave energy southeastward across our area.
Latest model guidance suggests that a shortwave trough embedded
within the northwesterly flow pattern will traverse the Tennessee
and lower Mississippi Valleys on Friday night, moving across the
Deep South early on Saturday and emerging off the southeast GA
coast by late Saturday afternoon. This should result in another
convectively active predawn and morning for northeast and north
central FL, with outflow boundaries then pushing into southeast GA
by early afternoon, developing convection north of the I-10
corridor during the late morning and afternoon hours. Convection
may exit a good portion of our area during the mid to late
afternoon hours, but timing these shortwaves is difficult, and we
will thus leave at least scattered POPs in the forecast grids into
the evening hours. The potential for predawn and early morning
convection and cloud cover may limit widespread severe
thunderstorm potential, but steep lapse rates in the 850-500
millibar layer (around 5,000 to 20,000 feet) and bulk
southwesterly shear around 30 knots will keep a risk of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorm potential in place, with damaging
wind gusts of 40-60 mph being the primary threat. With ground
conditions becoming saturated across our area, localized flooding
will be possible during convective impacts, especially at urban
locations and areas where thunderstorms train repeatedly across
the same locations. Thinning cloud cover and potentially less
convective coverage on Saturday afternoon should result in highs
reaching the upper 80s to around 90.

Troughing over New England may drive a stationary frontal
boundary southward towards the Interstate 10 corridor by late
Saturday night. Subsidence and a briefly drier air mass should
advect over inland southeast GA on Saturday night and Sunday
morning in the wake of this frontal boundary, while scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms may redevelop south of this
boundary across north central FL overnight. Lows will range from
the upper 60s for inland locations north of I-10 to the lower 70s
elsewhere.

Subsidence in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave trough
that will be moving offshore of the southeastern seaboard should
limit convective coverage across our area on Sunday morning.
However, the next upstream trough will dig southeastward from the
Upper Midwest towards the Ohio Valley, and this feature may
advect another potent shortwave towards the southeastern states
late in the afternoon and through the evening hours. This
shortwave trough should result in increasing deep- layered
moisture from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours,
resulting in scattered to numerous late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, especially along mesoscale boundaries such as the
inland moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. Plenty of late
morning and early afternoon sunshine should boost highs into the
lower 90s at most locations. Convection should then exit our area
during the mid to late evening hours, with debris cloud cover
slowly then thinning overnight. Lows will only fall to the low and
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Stormy pattern will continue as troughing digging from the upper
Midwest towards the Ohio Valley on Sunday cuts off over the
Tennessee Valley on Monday and then shifts southward towards the
central Gulf coast by midweek. This weather pattern will create a
deepening westerly flow patten aloft on Monday that will back to
southwesterly by Tuesday and Wednesday. Flow aloft should continue
to gradually back to southerly by late next week as cutoff
troughing retrogrades across the central and western Gulf coast
region. Timing out shortwave energy embedded within the prevailing
flow that will trigger convection will continue to be difficult to
predict, but Monday may feature a more typical diurnal
thunderstorm pattern before deepening southwesterly flow results
in additional rounds of convection on Tuesday and Wednesday that
could occur at any time of the day or night. Widespread heavy
downpours may increase the threat for flooding next week,
especially as the deepening southwesterly flow potentially taps
into deeper tropical moisture from the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The Weather Prediction Center is already advertising a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall for our entire area on Tuesday (Day 5).

Highs may climb to near late June climatology on Monday (upper 80s
to near 90) due to a more typical diurnal convective pattern.
Highs should then remain in the 80s at most locations on
Tues/Wed/Thurs as widespread convection and cloud cover take hold.
Lows will generally fall to the low and mid 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Waves of convection will continue to affect area TAF sites this
period. A round of showers and storms is expected to move east
across the area around dawn, and another later this afternoon into
Tonight. As these waves pass through restrictions are expected.
Outside of convection sites will waver between periods with
passing stratus causing restrictions and times of VFR.

Winds will become gusty after sunrise, as the atmosphere mixes. In
addition higher gusts will be possible in and near storms.

Early this period, while the atmosphere is not mixing well, llws
is possible, so have included the wind shear remark in area TAF
sites, ahead of the expected arrival of first round of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast and a
stalled frontal system over the southeastern US through Tonight. The
frontal zone will lift to the northeast over the weekend. An area of
low pressure will track east toward the area toward the middle of
next week.

Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue this period.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today, Moderate Saturday
NE FL: Low Today, Moderate Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Breezy westerly surface and transport winds will create good
daytime dispersion values area-wide today, outside of thunderstorm
activity. Surface and transport winds will shift to southwesterly
on Saturday, with breezy conditions at inland locations creating
good daytime dispersion values at most locations. Westerly surface
and transport winds will combine with elevated mixing heights on
Sunday to keep good dispersion values in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Heaviest rainfall totals today and Saturday should be focused for
locations along and south of the I-10 corridor, with a localized
flood threat potentially developing over the Suwannee Valley and
north central FL today, where training convection appears to be
more likely. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected through
Saturday across northeast and north central FL, with local amounts
potentially much higher, especially where thunderstorms repeatedly
train over the same locations. A more significant flood threat may
materialize across our area next week, as rounds of widespread
downpours traverse our region from southwest to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  69  89  70 /  40  40  50  40
SSI  87  74  87  73 /  50  30  60  40
JAX  88  73  89  71 /  50  70  80  40
SGJ  89  73  89  72 /  50  70  70  50
GNV  88  73  89  71 /  50  80  80  40
OCF  87  74  90  72 /  40  80  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLZ021-160900-
Suwannee FL-
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central
Suwannee County through 500 AM EDT...

At 358 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Perry, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Luraville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3021 8324 3022 8308 3008 8308 3009 8311
      3011 8312 3010 8314 3011 8316 3010 8317
      3009 8319 3010 8319 3010 8321 3012 8323
      3014 8323 3015 8324 3017 8323 3018 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 288DEG 18KT 3007 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NELSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
448 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLZ021-160930-
Suwannee FL-
448 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central and
western Suwannee County through 530 AM EDT...

At 447 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dowling Park, or 12 miles northwest of Mayo, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, excessive cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning is
         occurring. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Dowling Park, Obrien, Mcalpin, Luraville and Branford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 8292 2989 8287 2988 8288 2990 8290
      2989 8292 2995 8292 2996 8295 2999 8296
      3001 8300 3008 8307 3009 8311 3011 8312
      3010 8314 3011 8316 3009 8318 3010 8321
      3012 8323 3017 8323 3018 8325 3026 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 266DEG 22KT 3019 8331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NELSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

FLZ021-035-222-161000-
Southern Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-Gilchrist FL-
514 AM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Gilchrist,
southwestern Columbia and southeastern Suwannee Counties through 600
AM EDT...

At 513 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Bell, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, excessive cloud-to-ground
         lightning, and minor flooding due to heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning is
         occurring. Minor flooding due to heavy rainfall is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Bell, Ichetucknee Spring, Fort White, Branford and Hildreth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 8266 2968 8266 2958 8281 2958 8295
      2962 8297 2970 8296 2970 8294 2972 8296
      2975 8294 2976 8295 2980 8292 2981 8293
      2983 8289 2988 8287 2990 8290 2989 8292
      2996 8293 2996 8295 2999 8296 3003 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0913Z 292DEG 34KT 2984 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

NELSON