Tornado Warning 10, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
323 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

Surface warm front will lift just to the north this afternoon.
Prefrontal trough will move into interior counties around sunset,
then move southeast across the area through around midnight. The
cold front itself will follow by a few hours. The main line of
convection is expected to develop on the prefrontal trough. A few
showers and storms will be possible in the warm sector ahead of the
main line, then trailing showers behind the main line on the front
itself.

The potential exists for a few strong to severe storms in the
prefrontal trough line of convection, in addition to storms that
form ahead of it this afternoon in the warm sector.

Lows Tonight will range from the mid 40s well inland, to the mid 50s
NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

High pressure will build to the northwest through the day Monday,
with skies clearing from northwest to southeast. Cold advection
through the day will hold temperatures a little below normal, with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s SE GA, to the lower to mid 60s
NE FL.

For Monday night the high will build more toward the north. This
will continue the mainly clear skies. With the flow from the north,
readings inland will be cooler than near the NE FL coast due to the
onshore flow there. Lows inland will fall into the lower to mid 30s
with frost expected. Lows will hold in the upper 30s to lower 40s
closer to the coast. A light freeze is possible inland, but
uncertainty is too high for a watch at this point.

The high will build more toward the northeast Tuesday. This pattern
will result in an increasingly moist onshore flow. Highs will be a
little above normal.

The region will be between departing high pressure to the northeast,
and a cold front approaching from the west northwest Tuesday night.
A few showers will move into inland counties toward dawn. Lows
Tuesday night will be above normal due to the southeast to south
flow.

The cold front will move east southeast across the area Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A round of showers and storms is expected
ahead of and along the front. Highs Wednesday will rise well above
normal due to warm south to southwesterly flow. Lows will fall back
to near normal levels Wednesday night.

High pressure will build to the west Thursday. Skies will become
monstly clear Thursday, but cold advection will keep highs a little
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

High pressure will build to the west Thursday night through Friday,
then overhead on Friday night. The high will build to the northeast
Saturday night through Sunday. An area of low pressure will approach
from the west southwest on Sunday. While much of this period will be
dry, a few showers will move east into area ahead of the front late
in the day Sunday.

Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday, then above
normal for Sunday. Chance for a light inland freeze with frost
Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

A cold front will move southeast across the area through Tonight.
High pressure will build to the northwest Monday, then to the north
Monday night, and northeast on Tuesday. A cold front will move east
southeast across area Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure
will build to the west Thursday into Friday, then overhead Friday
night into Saturday. The high will move off to the northeast
Saturday night into Sunday.

Rip Current Risk: SE GA Moderate Today, Low Monday
                  NE FL Moderate through Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  60  32  61 /  80  10   0   0
SSI  52  61  40  61 /  80  10   0   0
JAX  54  63  37  66 /  80  10   0   0
SGJ  55  65  45  67 /  80  10   0   0
GNV  54  65  38  68 /  80  10   0   0
OCF  56  66  40  71 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
510 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

GAZ132-133-149-222330-
Atkinson GA-Coffee GA-Jeff Davis GA-
510 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact Coffee, Atkinson and Jeff Davis
Counties through 630 PM EST...

At 508 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Fitzgerald to 6 miles northeast of Pavo. Movement was northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Hazlehurst, Pearson, Willacoochee, Broxton, Ambrose,
Nicholls, Pridgen, West Green and Snipesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8243 3184 8245 3184 8252 3175 8252
      3175 8255 3167 8252 3167 8263 3148 8260
      3147 8263 3127 8263 3127 8270 3119 8267
      3118 8305 3128 8303 3140 8314 3146 8315
      3166 8300 3179 8299 3178 8287 3192 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 243DEG 40KT 3167 8330 3102 8366

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
541 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

FLZ020-GAZ162-163-222345-
Hamilton FL-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
541 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Hamilton,
Echols and Clinch Counties through 645 PM EST...

At 540 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near Ray
City to 11 miles northeast of Monticello. Movement was northeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Homerville, Fargo, Argyle, Statenville, Du Pont, Mayday, Needmore and
Cogdell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3080 8313 3081 8310 3085 8309
      3085 8301 3087 8297 3119 8297 3118 8267
      3102 8259 3100 8255 3093 8249 3082 8250
      3082 8245 3058 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 242DEG 60KT 3108 8328 3061 8369

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KB

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