Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
401 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

...DAILY HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY THROUGH MIDWEEK...

...DAILY SEA BREEZE STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
through Tonight
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

The transition to a wetter but continued hot and humid weather
regime began today as the mean layer 1000-700 mb ridge center was
analyzed across NE FL this afternoon, with light WSW flow across
SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley with more variable steering
flow over coastal NE FL closer to the ridge center. PWAT increased
to above 1.8 inches per recent GOES-16 total PWAT analysis with
near 2 inches near the Altamaha River basin. Water vapor imagery
showed a weak upper level trough and associated PVA approaching
our SE GA zones, which will enhance late afternoon and evening
storms across interior SE GA as boundaries collide. Farther south
across NE FL, sea breeze storms will continue to develop and
slowly press inland toward the diurnal thermal low which was
roughly between the Highway 301 and St. Johns River basin. Where
boundary mergers occur through the evening, pulse strong to severe
storms will be possible. Given weak shear, storms will be
vertically oriented and the main storm hazards will be wet
downburst winds of 40-60 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Storms
will fade in coverage and intensity into the evening, with a
slight drift back toward the Atlantic coast as cells dissipate
with loss of diurnal instability and decreased convergence.

Mostly dry conditions are expected after midnight with shallow
fog/haze toward sunrise given the moist airmass, light winds and
increased rainfall. Muggy lows will once again near record high
minimum values in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and storms
are expected each day with a light SW steering flow in the
1000-700 mb layer (5-10 kts) enabling the sea breezes to press
inland each afternoon with a merger of boundaries across the
interior, then deeper convection drifting slower back toward the
Atlantic coast into the early evening. Precipitable water will
rise back above climo values in the 1.8-2 inch range this period.
Slow storm motion will create locally heavy rainfall especially
near boundary/cell mergers with a few strong storms capable of wet
downbursts.

Above normal high will continue from the mid/upper 90s inland to
low/mid 90s at the coast with muggy overnight lows in the upper
70s. Near record high temps and near record high minimum temps are
possible through the period. Dew pts in the 70s will continue
which will create dangerous heat index values between 106-112 deg
F each day and Heat Advisories are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Thu/Sat... A wet, stormy pattern develops with high moisture
content across the area as SW steering flow strengthens as the
eastern CONUS upper trough deepens southward. At the surface, a
trough axis nudges southward across GA. The increase in upper
forcing, continued high moisture and the approach of the surface
front will bring more numerous to widespread showers and storms
for the latter half of the week as high temps begin to trend
downward due to increased storminess.

Sun/Mon...General model consensus indicated drier WNW steering
flow edging southward across GA Sunday as the persistent upper
trough begins to shift downstream, while deeper moisture lingers
across NE FL continuing elevated rain chances with a continuation
of above normal rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the 18Z period.
Have VCTS for the duval and GNV terminals this afternoon after
19Z-20Z as the Atlantic seabreeze merges near to just west of
I-95 with prevailing west to southwest wind and then the Gulf
coast seabreeze into the afternoon with tempo groups placed at the
duval TAF sites 20-23Z when most likely window for thunderstorms
expected with some restrictions due to heightened wind gusts,
lower ceilings MVFR and limited MVFR visibility from heavier
downpours and storms. Winds will become variable overnight with
some leftover high clouds from any storm anvils and become near
calm inland with clearing towards morning. Some MVFR fog should
form at VQQ after 07Z until sunrise with light and variable winds
post sunrise until the Atlantic seabreeze and cumulus field
begins to form before more showers and storms develop Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

High pressure will extend across the Florida peninsula through
the upcoming week as a front gradually moves southward across
Georgia. South-southeasterly wind surges will develop each
afternoon and evening as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland.
Nocturnal south-southwesterly wind surges develop Wednesday night
with an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity as the
surface front approaches.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk will continue through July
4th for all local beaches. Surf remains in the 2-3 ft range with
elevated astronomical tides with today's full moon (Buck Moon).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Daily record high temperatures and occurrence year for our official climates:

DATE    MON 7/3    TUE 7/4    WED 7/5
-------- ----------------------------
JAX      99            99       100
      (2019)        (1970)    (1877)

CRG      98            98        97
      (1998)        (1979)    (2016)

GNV     101            99        99
      (1902)        (1997)    (1902)

SSI      97            99        97
      (2014)        (1979)    (1979)

AMG     101            99        99
      (2019)        (1997)    (2007)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  75  96  76 /  40  40  50  40
SSI  94  79  96  80 /  30  10  30  30
JAX  97  76  98  77 /  60  20  40  40
SGJ  93  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  30
GNV  97  74  97  74 /  50  20  50  40
OCF  96  74  96  74 /  50  30  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-
     030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222-225-
     232-236-237-240-325-340-425.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

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