Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
410 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NE FL SOUTH
OF I-10...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over the northeastern Gulf
waters will move into the FL peninsula this afternoon. Meanwhile,
a weak boundary draped over SE GA will drift northward. The first
batch of convection has developed near and south of this
boundary. Surface heating in combination with increasing winds
aloft and 500mb temperatures between -10 and -12C will allow for
storms to become strong/severe as the MCS moves into NE FL. Best
chance will likely be near the coast where diurnal heating was
maximized and additional lift will be provided from the pinned
east coast sea breeze. Storms that develop this afternoon into
evening could produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated tornado. Along with all of the severe thunderstorm
threats, torrential rainfall may cause localized flooding,
especially in areas that have already received significant
rainfall this week. Storms will quickly sweep across the area
clearing out before midnight. There will be a brief break before
another round of strong to potentially severe storms moves through
the area ahead of a cold front early Sunday morning. The main
concerns with this round will be strong winds and potentially a
tornado due to the increase in helicity. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Storms will quickly press offshore of the NE FL Atlantic coast at
the start of the period trailed by brief showers over SE GA under
wrap- around low level moisture associated with the passing low.
Tight pressure gradient over the area will develop windy westerly
winds on Sunday with gusts of 30-40 mph, just shy of wind
advisory criteria at this time. As skies become partly cloudy into
Sunday afternoon, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to
low 80s. WNW flow develops between surface high pressure building
across the GOMEX and passing surface fronts north of the region.
Cooler, drier air filters in across the region begins the cool
front. The local pressure gradient begins to weaken on Monday,
however, good post-frontal mixing will maintain breezy westerly winds.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Dry conditions prevail through Friday persistent west-
northwesterly flow ushering in cool, dry air due to upper
troughing lingering over the eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure building into the SE US. Temperatures begin to warm
Thursday into Friday as the trough lifts northeastward allowing
for warm, moist flow to return to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Increasing cloudiness this aftn ahead of the convective complex moving
through the north central GOMEX. A few showers are developing but
may threat of showers and storms will come with the storms in the
Gulf. Continued to refine timing a bit from 20z-23z for GNV and a
bit later for rest of the TAFs. The system will be moving fairly
rapidly, eastward about 40 kt. The big threat will be strong gusty
winds and IFR conditions. Anticipate bulk of the strong tstorm
activity to move off the coast about 00z-02z with MVFR ceilings
anticipated during parts of the overnight period. Another wave of
storms is anticipated after midnight and continuing through about
12z. First affecting GNV about 04z-06z and progressing eastward,
possibly hitting the Duval sites about an hour or two later. Sfc
winds today, mainly south- southwest at 8-12 kt, more south-
southeast for SSI and SGJ, Winds will increase later tonight as a
cold front approaches.

For Sunday, westerly winds will be elevated, gusting up to near 25-
35 kt, but by late morning all convection should be offshore. Some
MVFR conditions could linger a few hours after sunrise Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

For today, a cold front and low pressure system will approach the
region from the west with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop this afternoon into Sunday morning, and some
thunderstorms may be strong to severe. The low pressure system
will traverse the southeast states on Sunday, pushing a strong
cold front across our area on Sunday. Strong southwest winds in
the wake of the front will create Small Craft Advisory conditions
for the near shore waters and frequent Gale force gusts over the
offshore waters beginning late tonight. The near shore waters can
expect occasional gale force gusts on Sunday. Winds and seas
subside on Monday.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk expected through the weekend
for NE FL and SE GA beaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

Fairly widespread rainfall amounts of about 1-2 inches are forecast
through Sunday morning, with potential localized maximums of 2-4
inches possible. Best rain chances come this afternoon into evening.
While much of this rainfall will be beneficial, localized
flooding will be possible, especially if downpours train over
urban and normally flood prone locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  77  54  77 /  70  20   0   0
SSI  67  81  59  80 /  80  40   0   0
JAX  66  80  57  83 /  90  20   0   0
SGJ  66  81  60  81 /  80  40   0   0
GNV  65  80  57  82 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  67  79  58  83 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-
     454.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AMZ450-452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ470.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
420 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

GAZ134-151-292100-
Pierce GA-Bacon GA-
420 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Pierce and
southeastern Bacon Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jamestown, or near Waycross, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blackshear, Patterson, Offerman, Jamestown and Bristol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 8216 3147 8214 3148 8211 3146 8206
      3136 8207 3127 8237 3129 8237 3129 8239
      3136 8239 3136 8240 3138 8241 3138 8242
      3139 8242 3139 8240 3140 8242 3153 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 232DEG 23KT 3132 8238

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KB