Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
319 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

...SE GEORGIA UNDER A TORNADO WATCH AND PORTIONS OF NE FL UNDER A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Stacked low pressure over the southern MS river will continue to
trek north-northeastward as its warm front is draped across
southern GA and cold front approaches from the west. Areas east of
I-75 have had sufficient destabilization today in the wake of the
warm front due to boundary-layer heating and mixing.

SE GA - The warm front across SE GA will remain the focus of
thunderstorm intensification this afternoon into evening as storms
continue to move northward into the area. Storms could produce
damaging winds, a brief tornado, heavy downpours, lightning and
small hail. Stronger activity could linger into this evening as a
narrow vorticity stream will pivot northeastward away from the
upper low and move across SE GA potentially providing additional
lift.

NE FL - The Gulf coast sea breeze has already shifted eastward
across much of NE FL and is anticipated to collide with the
Atlantic sea breeze between 3-4 PM. The boundary collisions will
help to intensify storms. Best chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms will be mainly in the St Johns River Basin and near
the I-95 corridor. Weak shear and hodographs will limit the
tornadic potential with these storms. The main hazards will be
damaging winds from downbursts, heavy downpours, lightning and
hail.

Tonight - Convective activity will shift offshore this evening as
dry air spreads in from the west. The aforementioned cold front
will move eastward across the area later tonight and is expected
to be a mainly dry passage. A few showers could develop as the
boundary passes. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Surface high pressure ridge axis will reside north of the Altamaha
River Basin Friday with dry conditions and light onshore SE winds.
Veering winds aloft will allow for warm air advection and  this
coupled with mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures in
the upper 70s over inland SE GA, around 80 over inland NE FL,
and in the low 80s over north central FL with mid 70s at the coast.
The combination of low level moisture, mostly clear skies and light
winds in the boundary layer will allow for widespread areas of
dense fog to develop late Friday night into early Saturday.

Weak upper level ridging is forecast for Saturday but will gradually be
pushed out of the region by Saturday night as a trough over the MS River
Valley moves east. Ahead of this trough, models depict a shortwave
that forms over the Gulf. Current forecast suggests much of the region
will remain dry through the day Saturday, with slight chances for
showers possible for the interior portions of the SE GA and Suwannee
Valley during the post midnight hours and pre-dawn hours Saturday
night as disturbance starts its approach toward the region.
Highs Saturday will be in the 80s and lows Saturday night will be in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

A frontal system is expected to move through southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida on Sunday, widespread precipitation is likely.
Scattered thunderstorms are also possible ahead of this frontal
passage. Temperatures will cool down Monday as high pressure
dominates through mid week. The next chance of rain will be
Thursday, south of Jacksonville. With dry air persisting,
temperatures will warm back into the 80s through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Sites have been generally alternating between VFR and MVFR over
the last 1-2 hours with diurnal cumulus. The first band of SHRA
and TSRA have cleared the sites with a second round located in the
VC of GNV as of now and extending northwestward into southwest GA
as destabilization is occurring. The area of SH and TS will move
northeastward over the next 3-4 hours with a temporary drop in
ceilings and strong wind gusts at times. Have included gusts up to
30kts for JAX/CRG/VQQ but higher gusts are possible given
evolution of convection over the next few hours.

Otherwise, low stratus appears likely towards dawn and into the
morning hours tonight, though IFR doesn't appear likely at this
time. Stratus is expected to clear by late morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the coastal waters
this afternoon into evening. An isolated storm may be strong to
severe producing strong winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.
Winds shift to south-southwesterly as high pressure briefly builds
into the area Friday into Saturday. A cold front will approach
from the northwest Sunday and press southeastward through the
waters Sunday night into Monday bringing another round of showers
and storms. High pressure will build from the west behind the
front Monday and settle across the waters by the middle of next
week.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents today decrease to moderate
tomorrow with flow shifting to offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  80  58  84 /  30  20   0   0
SSI  66  80  62  81 /  40  30   0   0
JAX  64  84  58  86 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  64  84  60  84 /  40  10   0   0
GNV  63  84  58  87 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  64  85  60  88 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>