Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
742 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 427 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A Tornado Watch has been issued for southeast Georgia, the
adjacent local waters, and Nassau county. Damaging winds and large
hail are also possible this evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Clusters of severe thunderstorms are currently moving westward
into southeast Georgia into a favorable environment for activity
to continue. These storms may organize well and will track across
southeast Georgia this evening, reaching the Atlantic coast just
before midnight.

Another wave of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into
interior southeast Georgia / Suwannee valley just after midnight.
The east southeasterly propagating squall line will be capable of
producing all hazards: damaging winds, large hail, heavy
rainfall, and possibility a few isolated tornadoes. The latest
HRRR run has shifted the strongest convection southward from
southeast Georgia into northeast Florida, but there is still
uncertainty with exact location of the squall line's path.

With an overnight severe weather threat, residents of northeast
Florida and southeast Florida should have multiple ways to receive
warnings, including ways to wake them from a sound sleep.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Thursday... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will be
moving southeasterly overnight into Thursday morning. These storms
will be capable of producing severe winds, large hail, and
possibly a tornado. North central Florida will likely be seeing
the worst of it predawn through a few hours after sunrise.

The forecast Thursday and will be very dependent on the mesoscale
features left behind from tonight's convective activity and the
position of the residual front boundary. With significant heating
again, thunderstorm activity will be possible through the day
area- wide. Currently seeing afternoon forecast surface based CAPE
over 2,000 J/kg, DCAPE near 900 J/kg, effective bulk shear of
40-50 knots, and steep mid level lapse rates of 6.5-8.0 C/km. SPC
is highlighting our western counties under a 'Slight' risk, with
the rest under a 'Marginal' risk with all hazards possible, again
this forecast is dependent on the location of the residual front
boundary.

In addition to all the severe threats, heavy rainfall producing
localized flooding issues will be possible area- wide, as several
rounds of heavy thunderstorms will be impacting the area.
Currently, WPC has a 'Slight' risk of excessive rainfall Thursday
over southeast Georgia.

Friday... Convection will linger overnight Thursday into Friday,
with numerous storms developing area-wide all day Friday again.
Westerly winds will continue, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze
pinned to the east coast.

Near-normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Daily rounds of diurnal thunderstorms are expected through this
period, with the highest PoPs being in the afternoon and evening
typically over northeast Florida. Hot, near-normal temperatures
will occur each day, with the highest heat indices reaching into
the lower 100s on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A non uniform line of SHRA and TSRA has formed over southeast GA,
and extending east-northeastward to just to the northwest of SSI
as of 2330Z. This line will progress southeast through late
tonight with strong to severe level erratic winds, reduced
visibility, lowered ceilings, and heavy downpours possible at all
sites. The first to be impacted will be SSI from about 01 to 03Z,
then progressing southeast and clearing all sites by about 04 to
05Z. A second line of convection is expected into the morning
hours from northwest to southeast which will originate from MS and
AL overnight. There is more uncertainty with respect to the timing
of this second period of TSRA as this will highly depend on how
the area of TSRA evolves overnight. Have kept all sites as PROB30
for now given uncertainty, with gusty winds of 30kts or higher
once again possible with this secondary area. Diurnal convection
will be expected again Friday afternoon and evening as a frontal
boundary will be nearly stationary over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A stationary frontal boundary will remain positioned to the north
of our local waters over the next several days. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, this weather pattern will maintain west-
southwesterly winds through the upcoming weekend and into early
next week. Disturbances aloft moving across our region will
trigger thunderstorms each afternoon into evening, with a higher
chance of strong thunderstorms over the Georgia waters. Stronger
thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts,
hail, and waterspouts through Thursday. Evening wind surges will
bring speeds up towards Caution levels outside of thunderstorm
activity each evening, especially offshore.

Rip Currents: Low rip current risk Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  86  70  88 /  70  80  80  50
SSI  73  87  73  88 /  50  80  80  60
JAX  73  90  74  89 /  60  80  70  70
SGJ  74  91  74  91 /  60  70  60  70
GNV  74  89  74  90 /  60  70  60  70
OCF  75  90  76  90 /  40  60  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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