Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

A cold front is slowly approaching from the north, bringing ample
moisture for thunderstorm development along the sea breeze
boundaries. Some storms have begun to grow in northeast Florida,
later this afternoon areas near I-75 in Florida will have more
coverage and higher chances of stronger storms as the Atlantic and
Gulf sea breezes converge. There is a low chance of severe
thunderstorms as effective bulk shear values and mid level lapse
rates are fairly low, but stronger (40-50 mph) wind gusts and
heavy downpours are possible. Mild low temperatures tonight, with
some inland patchy fog possible over northeast Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Afternoon sea breeze development on both coasts will create
thunderstorm potential area-wide both Thursday and Friday. With
easterly flow, I-75 in northern Florida will likely have the
highest coverage in stronger storms where the sea breezes collide.
The Atlantic sea breeze will keep east coast temperatures in the
lower 80s through the end of the week, inland temperatures will
rise to the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

The weekend will have more isolated thunderstorms, whereas early
next week will see slightly more coverage in the afternoon and
evenings. Southeast Georgia will likely remain dry on Saturday, as
high pressure dominates to our north, inland northeast Florida
may have influence from sea breeze convergence. Sunday, most
inland locations have the isolated thunderstorm risk. Monday and
Tuesday will have higher widespread chances due to an approaching
cold front from the north. Inland areas will see high temperatures
in the lower 90s on Sunday and Monday, otherwise expect normal
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

VFR currently prevails, however changes are soon to occur. An
approaching front is combining with a seabreeze which is expected
to develop SHRA and TSRA within the next 1-2 hours. Scattered
cells are expected to be mainly along and west of I-95. Challenges
in the forecast are therefore the probability of TS at sites
around JAX, and timing of impacts. At this time, left TSRA at JAX
due to the possibility of convection forming just to the
west/northwest with very little movement. Otherwise, VQQ and GNV
will have the highest chance of TSRA west of the seabreeze this
evening which is indicated in the fcst. Have left mention of any
RA out of SSI just north of the frontal boundary, and only VCSH
at CRG and SGJ as likely weakening cells propagate east near
sunset.

Low clouds will move in overnight for all areas, though confidence
is low to moderate with respect to how low cloud decks get, as
well as how far south and west. Some guidance has LIFR conditions
as far south and towards the coast as SGJ. For now, have all
sites avoiding >500ft decks, though highest chance for this as of
now will likely be at JAX, VQQ and SGJ. Cloud decks will raise to
MVFR or higher tomorrow late AM and afternoon, with any convection
Thursday expected to remain southwest of the sites after the front
settles south and west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

A backdoor cold front will move south over the local waters today,
resulting in a shift to elevated onshore winds and building seas,
and a chance of showers and storms through Thursday. A high
pressure ridge will build offshore the southeast states Friday and
to the east of the waters this weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk expected through Thursday,
with the potential for higher rip current risk to develop as
onshore flow persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  86  66  85 /  10  30  10  40
SSI  71  79  70  80 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  70  84  68  83 /  10  40  10  40
SGJ  71  82  69  82 /  10  30  10  30
GNV  69  89  68  87 /  20  60  30  50
OCF  68  91  68  87 /  20  60  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

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