Wind Advisory 3, NWS Jackson, MS

806 
WWUS74 KJAN 081802
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1202 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-090215-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0003.230209T0000Z-230209T1200Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Cleveland, 
Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, and Greenville
1202 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 40 
  mph expected. 

* WHERE...In Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot Counties. In 
  Mississippi, Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore, Grenada and 
  Washington Counties. 

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

924 
WWUS74 KJAN 090407 AAA
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1007 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-091200-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230209T1200Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Cleveland, 
Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, and Greenville
1007 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to around 40 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...In Arkansas, Ashley and Chicot Counties. In 
  Mississippi, Bolivar, Sunflower, Leflore, Grenada and 
  Washington Counties.

* WHEN...From now to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

22

117 
WWUS74 KJAN 091022
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
422 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-091130-
/O.CAN.KJAN.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-230209T1200Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Cleveland, 
Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, and Greenville
422 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind has diminished to well below wind advisory criteria.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1136 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

In the wake of light showers earlier today, areas of dense fog
quickly developed across portions of the Pine Belt this evening.
While fog may modulate to low clouds at times, high res guidance
has been consistently progging a broad area of dense fog across
southeast MS overnight as winds still remain rather light at many
locations. We have posted a Dense Fog Advisory for much of this
area, as some evening travel is already being impacted. Fog may
potentially spread more northward closer to daybreak. Otherwise,
the area of light showers is beginning to make its way out of the
area, so PoPs for the rest of tonight have been adjusted
accordingly. We can't rule out additional isolated light showers
through the rest of the night, but low clouds and fog will be the
prevailing condition over a larger area. Forecast updates have
been posted. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

Tonight and Wednesday. Light rain continues to spread north and
east across the area. Leaned heavily on the HRRR for the rain
forecast which has the rain tapering off by early morning.
Guidance was also showing fog for tonight, mainly in the I-59
corridor, so went with it. Wasn't confident in widespread dense
fog at this time, so went with patchy fog in the zones. Could see
stratus or fog developing at this point. QPF amounts for tomorrow
were less, so opted to remove the flood risk for the afternoon.
Overall, not real changes to the short term forecast. Guidance
pops and temps were good.

Models continue to show the surface low deepening as it tracks
northeast. Looking for more warm advection type showers to develop
ahead of the system in the morning, so left slight chance values
in the east through noon. Looks like most of the convection won't
move in until the late afternoon, generally hi-res models shows
CAPE increasing in the afternoon with values around 1000 ahead of
the boundary. There were a few other instability parameters
increasing into the late afternoon that suggests the southwest
portions of the area generally south of I-20 may be primed by the
late afternoon. Right now, it doesn't look like much convection
will develop ahead of the boundary, so expecting most of the
activity in the later afternoon. /07/

Wednesday night into next week ...Showers and storms will be
ongoing to start the mid and long range forecast period Wednesday
night including the risk for strong to severe storms through the
overnight. Heavier rains are possible south of I-20 where a
locally higher likelihood for isolated flash flooding remains
possible. In this area, deeper moisture, somewhat slower storm
motions, and a less meridionally orientated band of storms could
result in both higher rainfall rates and longer duration of
thunderstorm activity. Urban and low lying areas, as is typically
the case, would be most at risk for flash flooding. With local
rivers remaining high, additional rainfall may prolong river
flooding issues across the area.

As storms clear with the passage of the cold front, a seasonably
cool and and dry airmass will become entrenched into the weekend.
Temperatures Thursday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday
amidst steady northwest flow and cold advection with overnight
lows down into the 40s F. Friday temperatures continue to trend
cooler with surface high pressure in control with highs mostly in
the 50s F and lows by Saturday and Sunday morning near and below
freezing for much of the area. By Sunday afternoon, the center of
the surface high migrates east of our area and southerlies return,
resulting in moderating temperatures and highs near 60 F.

The next chance for rain likely holds off until next week when an
upper trough will be approaching Monday into Tuesday. This is
around a week out and forecast confidence is low with considerable
differences amongst the forecast guidance, but there does appear
to be a risk for thunderstorms and we will be monitoring for any
strong/severe weather risk particularly after we get through the
mid- week event and the eventual outcome becomes more clear. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

IFR/LIFR low stratus are spreading across much of the area late
tonight and will continue to increase overnight, with the only
exception being areas of northeast LA and southeast AR. In
addition fog, some locally dense, has developed in parts of south
MS. Both of these will remain an issue overnight, with
visibilities improving by mid-morning and ceilings slower to
improve through the day Wednesday. Most sites will return to VFR
for at least some portion of the afternoon. However, lower clouds
will return Wed night as a cold front pushes into the area. SHRA
and TS will also move across the region mainly from late Wed
afternoon west of the MS River, spreading eastward Wed night
farther east. Some of the storms could be severe, with wind gusts
to 50 kt and tornadoes. Southerly winds will be increasingly
gusty on Wednesday, and LLWS could become an issue Wed night. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  77  51  65 /  10  40 100  20
Meridian      57  75  55  66 /  20  30  80  50
Vicksburg     59  79  48  65 /  10  50 100  10
Hattiesburg   60  77  59  65 /  20  50  80  60
Natchez       60  78  51  66 /  10  60 100  10
Greenville    57  73  46  63 /  20  70 100  10
Greenwood     57  74  51  63 /  10  60 100  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ055>058-
     062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/07/LP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
749 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-090200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Washington-
749 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Wednesday afternoon

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damage wind gusts,
tornadoes, and hail up to quarter size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible into Wednesday evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding Wednesday
night across central Louisiana and south Mississippi, especially
in low lying and urban areas. Area creeks and streams remain
elevated, so additional rain could cause river flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

MSZ019-025>033-035-036-040-041-047-060-090200-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-Adams-
749 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes will be possible Wednesday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding Wednesday
night across south Mississippi, especially in low lying and urban
areas. Area creeks and streams remain elevated, so additional
rain could cause river flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
night.

MSZ037>039-042>046-048>055-059-061-062-090200-
Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Jefferson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
749 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FOG
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through Wednesday morning

Patchy dense fog with visibilities down to a quarter of a mile is
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes will be possible Wednesday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding Wednesday
night across south Mississippi, especially in low lying and urban
areas. Area creeks and streams remain elevated, so additional
rain could cause river flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
night.

MSZ056>058-063>066-072>074-090200-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
749 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central and
south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

FOG
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through Wednesday morning

Areas of dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile or less are
likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes will be possible Wednesday night.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

There is a limited risk for localized flash flooding Wednesday
night across south Mississippi, especially in low lying and urban
areas. Area creeks and streams remain elevated, so additional
rain could cause river flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FOG*
Significant...Widespread dense fog with visibilities a quarter
 mile or less are likely.
Elevated...Areas of dense fog with visibilities a quarter mile
 or less are likely.
Limited...Patchy dense fog is possible with visibilities
 potentially down to a quarter of a mile.

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   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
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Storm Reports...
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