Wind Advisory 11, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
151 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

An upper level low located over SW Louisiana and a surface low
located on the AL Gulf Coast will begin to stack over central MS
later on this afternoon. These lows will continue to transport
moisture into our region keep our rain chances steady throughout
the day. Occasional heavy downpours can bring flood threats to
the area this morning into the afternoon hours. Limited
instability will keep the possibility of severe to a minimal, but
as the system moves northwest throughout the day, possible
thunderstorms can enter our region from the east. Temperatures
will only increase slightly heading into the mid day as cloud
cover and constant precipitation will limit daytime heating./LCP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Today and tonight...

An upper low pressure system along the MS/AL/FL coast will keep
rain chances persistent this morning into the afternoon across the
ArkLaMiss region. Hourly guidances shows Precipitable Water
Values (PWATs) steadily increasing from the southeast this morning
in response to the upper low. Rain chances will remain scattered
to numerous in the east and isolated to scattered in the west. The
potential for a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the
east, as instability ranges between 500 - 1000 J/kg in the
afternoon. Lapse rates are fairly unimpressive, which will limit
any significant updraft production. Dewpoints will struggle to
reach 60 degF, which will also limit in significant updraft
persistence. Cloud cover will remain increased throughout the
afternoon into the evening. Highs are expected to be below the
mid-April average, ranging from the low 60s to near 70.

By tonight, rain chances will fizzle out as the upper low lifts
northeast, away from its main moisture source. Cloud cover will
stick around overnight for most of the region, but will begin to
clear from the west as drier air filters in. Overnight lows will
be in the lower to middle 50s. /AJ/

Friday through Saturday night: The upper low will continue to
pull northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic, providing an
opportunity for at least some temporary clearing over much of the
area Friday. We did, however, maintain isolated PoPs for the
Golden Triangle given the potential for convergence on the back
side of the low to kick off a band of showers, which should be
gone by Friday evening.

Attention will then shift to the next storm system, a longwave
upper trough advancing from the intermountain region on Friday
through the Great Plains on Saturday with a cold front extending
from near Kansas City through eastern Texas by Saturday afternoon.
Mainly lighter isolated WAA shower activity will be possible by
Saturday morning across the area. Because there will be no
substantial low level drying in the wake of our current upper low
system, low level moisture recovery should not be a deterrent
ahead of the next system. However, there is an interesting signal
in the latest guidance that a developing Southern stream upper jet
streak will result in coastal convection during the day Saturday.
What or how much impact any precip or cloud debris from this
feature might have on activity later into the evening remains to
be seen, but this trend will be one to monitor.

Otherwise, through much of the day Saturday, convection is
expected to be limited due to a mid level cap and a lack of larger
scale forcing. But as initially marginal deep layer shear
increases, increasing forcing along the approaching front will
lead to the development of convection in the unstable regime ahead
of the front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid South by late
afternoon. Guidance timing has slowed down somewhat, with storms
not reaching our area until late afternoon or evening in most
solutions. This should tend to limit the eastward extent of the
severe threat later in the night as instability wanes.
Nevertheless, along with the potential for damaging wind gusts,
forecast steep mid level lapse rates could provide potential for
large hail. Low level wind fields are currently forecast to be
lackluster, which would limit the tornado threat. The front will
exit Sunday morning, ending rain and storm chances.

Sunday through Wednesday: Ridging will build eastward through the
early portion of next week, with dry weather conditions and a
brief cool down. As the ridge shifts east of the area around
Tuesday, a warming trend will commence through the end of the
week. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

Cigs will continue to toggle between MVFR/IFR as we head into the
afternoon. Occasional -RA will be possible at all sites through
23Z. Rain chances will decrease starting from the south as this
upper low makes it way northeast. 20-35KT gusts are possible for
sites in east MS. VFR conditions will begin to return at PIB/HBG
around 3Z-9Z and JAN/HKS around 12Z. /LCP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  78  60  80 /  20   0  10  50
Meridian      55  77  57  80 /  40   0   0  40
Vicksburg     52  80  62  82 /  10   0  10  40
Hattiesburg   54  79  59  78 /  10   0   0  50
Natchez       54  80  62  80 /   0   0  10  50
Greenville    54  79  63  83 /  10   0  10  40
Greenwood     56  77  62  82 /  40   0  10  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

LCP/LP/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
320 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
140830-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
320 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter size are possible late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night across portions of Southeast Arkansas, Northeast
Louisiana, and Central Mississippi. Tornadoes cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

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