Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

The forecast remains on track. There is a chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern portion of
Mississippi due to a surface low opening into a shortwave trough.
These areas have the best chances for precipitation during the
afternoon hours. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the
upper 90s with heat indices ranging between 105-110 degrees. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the area until 8pm this
evening. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

Today and Tonight...

Global guidance continue to show a surface low hovering over the
FL/GA state line. The sfc low is expected to open into a shortwave
trough later today as the feature continues to shift slightly
northward towards the Carolinas. Some areas across southeast
Mississippi could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms
later this afternoon due to the build up of southeasterly moisture
flow from the Gulf Coast. Cloud cover is forecasted to remain low
throughout the day thanks to the strong upper ridge hovering over
the Lower Mississippi Valley. In response to this, sufficient
daytime heating should allow for afternoon highs to peak into the
upper 90s, with a few locations potentially reaching 100s across
our forecast area. Expect heat indices to peak near 110 degrees
areawide. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the ArkLaMiss
region from 10 am to 8 pm later this evening. Quiet conditions are
expected to continue by tonight. The lack of cloud cover should
allow for radiational cooling to take place across Central
Mississippi. Expect overnight lows to drop into the upper 70s.
/CR/

Sunday through Tuesday: Hot weather will remain the dominant
forecast theme as we head into next week, but a building upper
trough over the Atlantic coast may result in some subtle changes
over the coming days. A weak backdoor front will accompany the
building trough and may provide a focus for isolated convection
Sunday afternoon from the Mid South into parts of north/east MS,
with additional diurnally-driven activity elsewhere across our
area. Marginally strong deep shear could support a few stronger
storms if convection does indeed develop. The weak front may
progress far enough south to knock a few degrees off high temps
Monday into Tuesday across the north and east portions of the
forecast area. Slightly drier air may also temporarily filter in
from the northeast late Monday into Tuesday. Isolated mainly
diurnal convection will remain possible each day as the upper
trough remains nearby. Heat stress wise, temps will tease the
triple digits each day, especially the farther south and west you
go in the area. Dewpoints, while still uncomfortable, won't be as
high as we've seen earlier in the summer, with low/mid 70s
expected in most areas. Nevertheless, this will still result in
triple digit heat indices and heat stress will remain a concern.
The Heat Advisory will likely be extended into later days.

Wednesday through Friday: The upper ridge will build eastward
again across the area, meaning the heat will persist and rain
chances will remain on the very isolated end of the spectrum. A
return to southerly low level flow will result in an uptick in
dewpoints, with heat stress concerns potentially increasing
through the end of the week. More triple digit temps are possible
and triple digit heat index readings are likely. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period.
Winds will vary at times however winds will remain light. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       97  76 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
Meridian      97  75 100  76 /  20  10  20  10
Vicksburg     96  75  99  77 /  10   0  10   0
Hattiesburg   97  76 100  76 /  20  20  20  10
Natchez       96  75  99  77 /  10  10  20   0
Greenville    97  76  99  76 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     98  76  99  77 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

JNE/DL/SW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-041-047-048-053>055-
059>064-072-302000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Marion-
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, elevated heat stress levels are expected with peak heat
index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Elevated heat stress remains possible with peak heat index values
ranging from 105 to 110 degrees each day. Heat exhaustion will be
likely with prolonged outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

MSZ018-019-025>039-042>046-049>052-056>058-065-066-073-074-302000-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Covington-Jones-Lamar-
Forrest-
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Sunday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Sunday, elevated heat stress levels are expected with peak heat
index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
be likely with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday mainly during
peak heating hours with the main threats being damaging wind
gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Elevated heat stress remains possible with peak heat index values
ranging from 105 to 110 degrees each day. Heat exhaustion will be
likely with prolonged outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
236 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

MSZ056-057-292000-
Smith MS-Jasper MS-
236 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Jasper
and northeastern Smith Counties through 300 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pineville, or 12 miles north of Bay Springs. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Louin and Montrose around 300 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8931 3214 8949 3222 8939 3222 8927
      3215 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 315DEG 3KT 3215 8936

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

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