Severe Thunderstorm Warning 583, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Thunderstorms, some of which may become severe, remain the main
concern through late tonight. A low pressure system spinning over
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon has its cold
front extending southward and southwestward to the border between
eastern AR and northwest MS as of the 1 PM obs. Gradual
destabilization of the atmosphere in the warm sector has been
ongoing today, with satellite imagery showing deeper and more
convective looking cloud features. A special 18Z KJAN sounding still
had some capping above 850mb, but the low-level dry air had been
eroded and SBCAPE values increased to over 1500 J/kg compared with
the 12Z sounding's 63. Obviously the main low-level forcing will be
associated with the cold front, and latest mesoanalysis shows
increased frontogenesis accordingly across eastern AR/northwest MS.
Farther south though, the differential heating due to breaking cloud
cover has allowed some scattered showers and a few storms to develop
across portions of southern and eastern MS, and instability and
shear are both adequate to support a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Will keep with the main timing as outlined on our severe
thunderstorm outlook graphic, but isolated strong to severe
convection ahead of the front cannot be ruled out.

It still appears that the greatest risk for wind/hail/tornado
threats is mainly in the northern portions of our forecast area into
northern MS/western TN this evening, but the overlap of decent
instability and wind shear across the warm sector means even some
short-lived cores along the cold front could sustain long enough to
produce a localized hail, damaging wind, or tornado threat. Mid-
level lapse rates will be less advantageous for hail farther
southeast, and the shear profile a little less favorable for
tornadoes or a sustained wind threat. Therefore the threat becomes
more Marginal by the time the cold front reaches the Pine Belt later
tonight. The worst of the weather should be clear of our forecast
area by about midnight to 2 a.m., though some showers could linger
until around sunrise tomorrow. A dry, cool day is then expected
across the area with highs topping out around 50 degrees most
locations. /NF/

Sunday night through next Saturday...

A fairly quiet extended period is expected in the wake of this
evening's severe weather threat. By Monday, a potent upper trough is
progged to be just east of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
establish NW flow into the region, bringing cooler and drier air.
Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, with highs in the
lower to upper 50s and lows near freezing to the middle 30s on
Monday night. Temperatures through the remainder of the week are
expected to remain mostly seasonable. Flow will remain mostly zonal,
with dry conditions prevailing through most of the week.

By Friday, a cutoff low over the Texas Panhandle is expected to
bring our next chance for precipitation across the region. The upper
low is expected to dive into the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Saturday, bringing the chance for mostly showers and some
thunderstorms across the area next weekend. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Ceilings will be variable to start the TAF period, with a mix of
CU and SC in the MVFR to VFR range. -SHRA scattered across the
forecast area is expected to continue, with an increasing chance
for TSRA especially along a cold front which will move southeast
through the area between around 22Z today and 08Z Sunday. Gusty
winds out of the south ahead of the front will become northerly
behind the cold front and remain gusty to around 20 kts at times.
/NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  50  30  57 /  90  20   0   0
Meridian      46  53  29  56 /  90  40   0   0
Vicksburg     42  52  29  57 / 100  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   49  54  31  57 /  90  30   0   0
Natchez       42  52  31  58 /  90  10   0   0
Greenville    39  50  31  54 /  40   0   0   0
Greenwood     39  49  29  55 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/AJ/NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

MSZ040-041-092300-
Sharkey MS-Issaquena MS-
436 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA AND
SOUTHWESTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CST...

At 436 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cary, or near Mayersville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rolling Fork and Cary around 440 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for west central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 9108 3298 9078 3276 9077 3274 9107
      3278 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 251DEG 32KT 3281 9100

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
451 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

MSZ019-092315-
Sunflower MS-
451 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CST...

At 451 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Indianola, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Indianola, Moorhead, Sunflower, and Blaine around 455 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for north
central and northwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9045 3342 9077 3344 9077 3345 9076
      3360 9076 3362 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 269DEG 45KT 3351 9069

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

MSZ061-062-092330-
Lincoln MS-Franklin MS-
454 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CST...

At 454 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Smithdale, or 13 miles southeast of Meadville, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mccall Creek and Center Point around 500 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for south
central and southwestern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9082 3156 9070 3140 9040 3135 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 212DEG 30KT 3136 9070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NF

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