Severe Thunderstorm Warning 548, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
253 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

Today and tonight: The upper ridge has weakened further with
observed heights of 592dm across the area. An upper low situated
over Alabama and Mississippi is visible on satellite and is
allowing for ascent. This feature is pivoting into the area in
time for peak heating of the day. With temperatures poised to once
again reach the low 100s, plenty of support for favorable
convective parameters exists. Analysis of JAN 12z sounding shows a
likely chance for severe potential this afternoon. Low to mid 70s
dewpoints have held on across the area, indicative of ample
moisture and should support high SBCAPE around 3000-3500 j/kg.
Damaging wind gusts should be the primary factor. Any storms that
do pop, should diminish with waning diurnal heating.

Tomorrow, very hot and mostly dry conditions will continue, with
low chance for showers and thunderstorms south of I-20. 850
thermal axis should be over the area with temps in the 22-24
range. Previously 850 temps like these have given us our 105 and
106 high temps, so it seems probable that high temperatures could
rise once again into the low to middle 100s ahead of any showers
and storms in the afternoon. Deep mixing will once again favor
fire conditions, with rainfall totals falling short of alleviating
conditions./SAS/

Saturday night through Thursday: We will finally see a decrease
in record temperatures from the north Sunday and Monday followed
by the of heat stress related products by Tuesday. The large
mid/upper level high that has brought the recent record heat wave
to the region will continue shifting west and weakening over our
region through Wednesday before shifting back east and
strengthening over our region Thursday through the end of the
week. As the ridge aloft weakens over our region, a shortwave
topping the ridge will help send a weak cold front into northern
Mississippi Sunday while deepening an upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS. A second shortwave will drop through our region
Monday helping to send the cold front into our southern zones
Monday evening. A third sharper shortwave will further deepen the
upper level trough to our east and help push the cold front
southeast of our CWA. Cooler temperatures and a drier airmass is
expected over our CWA Tuesday that will last through Wednesday.
Until then, hot temperatures will continue south of Highway 82
Sunday and combine with humidity to result in heat index values
around 110F again and an Excessive Heat Warning will likely be
needed for this are a while a Heat Advisory will likely be needed
for the remainder of our CWA. With the frontal boundary dropping
south, decent rain chances are expected across much of the area
Sunday afternoon which may help cool sites going into Sunday
evening. Monday the oppressive heat conditions are expected to be
confined to our Highway 84 zones as the cold front continues to
sag farther south through our CWA. Until our region receives
significant rainfall, fire danger will remain a concern due to the
extremely dry fuels.

Come Wednesday morning the cold front is expected to be stalled just
south of our CWA with a dry airmass across our CWA. Wl still be on
the eastern periphery of the mid level ridge to the west and at the
base of the upper level trough to our east. Models are hinting at
the potential for tropical cyclone development over the eastern
Gulf. This potential system bears watching and would likely affect
our CWA by a continuation of dry weather if it stays east of
Mississippi or more impactful weather if moves west. For now model
consensus is dry for our CWA continued cooler than normal
temperatures across our north and warmer than normal temperatures
across our south. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

VFR conditions should prevail. Winds will be from the SSW 5-10
mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and locally stronger gusts are possible in these
storms./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76 103  77 101 /  10  20  10  50
Meridian      75 103  76 101 /  10  10  10  50
Vicksburg     75 102  76 100 /  10  20  10  50
Hattiesburg   77 105  77 105 /  20  30  10  50
Natchez       75 103  77 102 /  10  20  10  50
Greenville    76 102  77  95 /   0  10  10  50
Greenwood     75 103  76  96 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-041-047-
     053-054-059>064-072>074.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ040-041-
     047-053-054-059>064-072>074.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023>026.

AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075.

&&

SAS20/22/SAS20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034>036-041>043-048-049-055-056-065-066-
262015-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-Simpson-Smith-
Covington-Jones-
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northwest Mississippi, southeast Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...Saturday

FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values in
excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues to
be a major concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, open burning is discouraged due to a combination of dry
conditions, gusty winds, and low humidity. Please heed any local
burn bans.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

MSZ026>033-037>039-046-262015-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Kemper-
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Saturday

FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, dangerous heat expected with peak heat values in excess
of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant concern with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, extra caution is advised with open burning due to a
combination of dry conditions and low humidity. Please heed any
local burn bans.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047-053-054-059>064-072>074-
262015-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Warren-Claiborne-
Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...Saturday

FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values in
excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues to
be a major concern with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

MSZ044-045-050>052-057-058-262015-
Leake-Neshoba-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-
307 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Saturday

FIRE WEATHER
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, dangerous heat expected with peak heat values in excess
of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant concern with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, open burning is discouraged due to a combination of dry
conditions, gusty winds, and low humidity. Please heed any local
burn bans.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

*FIRE WEATHER*
Extreme...Extreme wildfire conditions are anticipated with
 strong winds. Open burning should not be attempted and
 wildfires will spread very rapidly. Fire control will be
 very difficult, even for experienced fire fighters.
Significant...Conditions are expected such that open burning
 should not be attempted. Any wildfires will spread rapidly.
Elevated...Any open burning is discouraged due to increased
 wind, lower humidity, and recent dry conditions.
 Remember to heed any local burn bans that are in effect!
Limited...Extra caution is advised with open burning due to
 lower humidity or very dry conditions.
 Remember to heed any local burn bans that are in effect!

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some  locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) A historic heat wave is expected through this weekend with high
temperatures surpassing 100 degrees for much of the area. All
time record highs will be in jeopardy at some  locations. Heat
index values as high as 110 to 120 degrees are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

There is a significant Fire Danger threat that will last through
the weekend where any open burning should not be attempted as
fires can quickly escape and become very difficult to control.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES...

Current Heat Information...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_ExtremeHeat

Fire Weather...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/fireweather
Mississippi Forestry Commission...
   https://www.mfc.ms.gov/
Fire Weather Outlook...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/

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