Severe Thunderstorm Warning 507, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
246 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

The rest of the evening through tomorrow...

Showers and storms are expected to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and potentially linger into the evening. The potential
for severe weather continues this afternoon, but is steadily
decreasing as drier air moves in from the west, decreasing any
significant chance for widespread severe chances. In the along the
Hwy 82 and wast of I-55, there continues to be enough mid/low-level
vorticity along the MCV to generate severe thunderstorms capable of
damaging wind gusts. Additionally, slow storm motions and opposing
corfidi vectors continue to support backbuilding in the northeast.
Due to this, a "Limited" for isolated flash flooding is outlooked
for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Between 1-
3 inches and some locally higher amounts of rain will be possible.
Heat will continue to be an issue for the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening. Observations are showing heat indices
ranging between 105-110 degrees across the CWA, especially those who
lacked cloud cover this morning. A Heat Advisory remains in effect
until 8 pm tonight.

By this evening into tonight, showers and storms are expected to
linger, mainly in the north. Overnight lows will range in the middle
to upper 70s. On Saturday, ridging will continue to build in from
the west, allowing for heat indices to range between 105-110 once
again. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 10am - 7pm on Saturday.
Rain chances will remain in the northern and eastern portions of the
region tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Highs are expected to range from the lower to upper 90s. /AJ/

Saturday night through Monday: Upper troughing will build over the
eastern CONUS to begin the new week. This will bring the corridor of
more active weather further south, with higher rain chances over the
central and southern portion of the forecast area by Sunday. The
trough may shift far enough south for a somewhat drier airmass to
edge into parts of north MS and AR Sunday, and further south into
Monday, though dewpoints are still expected to remain in the 70s.
Areas south of I-20 are more likely to remain in a rather humid
airmass, with heat stress a potential concern outside of
interference from clouds/rain.

Tuesday through next Friday: The upper trough will shift east, with
a building mid/upper high over the Southern Plains becoming the more
dominant feature. Through the middle portion of next week, this
ridge will build eastward toward the Deep South and begin to direct
more of the shortwave-driven convection around our region with
convection becoming more isolated in nature and heat becoming the
main theme. With considerable low level moisture lingering, heat
indices in the 105-110F range will be possible each day and temps
may reach the upper 90s in some areas.

The ridge will begin to retreat later in the week, with rain chances
ramping up again by next Friday as a trough again develops over the
eastern US. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Cigs will toggle between MVFR/VFR for GWO/GTR/MEI this afternoon
and evening as a MCV moves across northern MS. TSRA and VCTS will
be possible as for GTR/MEI through 00Z. BR and FG may cause MVFR
conditions across the region by 11Z but should dissipate by 13Z.
/AJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  96  76  91 /  20  20  20  60
Meridian      75  96  76  93 /  30  30  20  60
Vicksburg     78  95  76  90 /  10  10  10  50
Hattiesburg   77  96  76  94 /  10  30  10  60
Natchez       77  96  76  90 /  10  10  10  50
Greenville    77  93  75  90 /  20  20  20  30
Greenwood     77  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ074-075.

&&

AJ/DL/AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034>037-040>066-072>074-
151945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely
with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Dangerous heat is likely within the region this weekend through
next week. Heat indices between 105-115 degrees will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

MSZ018-019-025>033-038-039-151945-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-
231 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

Tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Saturday, dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely
with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

Dangerous heat is likely within the region this weekend through
next week. Heat indices between 105-115 degrees will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

33

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
940 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     Flash Flood      Wahalak                 32.91N 88.53W
07/13/2023                   Kemper             MS   Broadcast Media

            Roads flooded and a hunting camp flooded in
            the Wahalak area.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
944 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     Flood            4 ENE Mashulaville      33.10N 88.68W
07/13/2023                   Noxubee            MS   Dept of Highways

            MS Hwy 14 was flooded near the Noxubee
            River.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
214 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

MSZ030-031-033-142000-
Lowndes MS-Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-
214 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Oktibbeha, southeastern Clay and central Lowndes Counties through 300
PM CDT...

At 214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Starkville, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Oktibbeha, southeastern Clay and central Lowndes Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8827 3336 8878 3357 8890 3356 8862
      3366 8849 3366 8846 3368 8843 3367 8842
      3369 8839 3369 8837 3372 8833 3374 8833
      3374 8826 3373 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 057DEG 16KT 3347 8880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

MSZ026-028-029-142000-
Grenada MS-Montgomery MS-Webster MS-
235 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Grenada, northwestern Webster and north central Montgomery Counties
through 300 PM CDT...

At 235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Embry, or 13 miles northwest of Eupora, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Embry around 245 PM CDT.
  Bellefontaine around 250 PM CDT.
  Walthall around 300 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8951 3372 8951 3372 8919 3374 8919
      3374 8914 3354 8933 3361 8954 3369 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 287DEG 22KT 3369 8942

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH

JNE

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