Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
607 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

Today and Tonight:

The main concern today will be the potential for some isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon
hours as a cold front pushes east across the forecast area. A low
pressure system spinning over eastern OK early this morning will
translate east along the Interstate 40 corridor through the day.
Current observations indicate the cold front is entering the
ArkLaTex region, while warm sector observations ahead of this front
show temps and dew points generally in the mid- to upper-60s. This
is a bit better than anticipated by earlier guidance, and current
mesoanlysis has an area of 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE spreading northeast
into central LA and MS ahead of the cold front this morning. 700-
500mb lapse rates are also decent - about 7-7.5 deg/km over our
forecast area. The nose of a 55kt low-level jet will shift from
north-central MS into northern AL/central TN by mid-morning, but
850mb winds of 40-50kts will remain across the eastern 2/3rds of our
area through around Noon until the front clears eastern MS. The
upper-level jet being directly overhead, deep-layer shear of 40-60
kts and low-level wind shear of 30-40 kts will support organized
convection as the front moves into our area. In the immediate short
term, a cluster of storms has developed in the area of best
instability over west-central LA and should move northeast into our
CWA over the next few hours. Additional storm development is
possible, but limited deep moisture may limit overall coverage of
storms until peak daytime heating as the storm reaches eastern MS
and then into AL. Therefore a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
is maintained across most of the forecast area this morning, with a
Slight Risk being added to far eastern MS where increasing coverage
and afternoon instability could result in a few more potentially
severe storms before the front clears our area.

In addition to possible severe storms today, the strong low-level
winds and tightening pressure/height gradients will keep winds
breezy and gusty as the front moves through. Gusts at times could
reach 30-40 mph ahead of the cold front, while sustained wind speeds
around 15 to 20 mph are expected through much of the day even in the
wake of the frontal passage. Temperatures tonight will fall into the
mid 30s as colder air pushes into the region. /NF/

Friday through next week...

Behind the departing cold front, remnant cyclonic curvature on
the backside of the ejecting upper low will likely be sufficient
to maintain broken to overcast skies north and east of near the
Jackson metro. This will likely keep temperatures quite cool with
most in the 40s F all day with a chilly north breeze. With cloud
cover and wind diminishing overnight and high pressure becoming
dominant, temperatures will into the mid and upper 20s F Friday
night. Full sun on Saturday and weakening cold air advection as
the upper trough moves east will allow for a nice rebound in
temperatures by afternoon with lower to mid 50s F for most across
the area.

Aloft, the pattern remains active with high amplitude ridging moving
quickly west to east across the area. This narrow ridge axis will
allow for a pleasant Sunday but an upstream trough deepening over
the western CONUS will be aiding in surface cyclogenesis and
subsequently enhanced southerly boundary layer flow west of the
surface high that will be rapidly moving northeastward and away.
Initially noticeable by marked increases in humidity and
temperatures Sunday, by Monday rain chances return as the next cold
front and attendant upper trough moves our way.

Substantial model spread creeps in as this front begins to impact
the ArkLaMiss and most guidance suggests the front may struggle to
clear the area, instead stalling as deep layer flow becomes parallel
to the boundary with the upper trough lifting and ejecting. Another
upper level disturbance is likely to follow closely behind and the
interaction of these two troughs increases uncertainty further. Given
the modest model agreement between the GFS/Euro this morning, there
is at least a modicum of confidence that a second wave of showers
and thunderstorms, with some potential for some stronger storms, is
likely towards the middle of next week (most likely Wednesday into
Thursday). Almost a full week remains before this possible event and
thus details will be more ironed out as we get nearer. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

An area of showers and thunderstorms has developed ahead of a cold
front moving into the forecast area to start the TAF period. This
front and its SHRA and TSRA activity should continue to move west
to east across the forecast area - clearing eastern Mississippi
TAF sites by around 18Z-20Z today. Scattered to broken MVFR deck
and gusty southerly winds ahead of the front will give way to
westerly winds and VFR conditions after frontal passage.
Additional low stratus deck with MVFR ceilings is expected later
in the period with the arrival of northwest winds. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  36  45  27 /  70   0   0   0
Meridian      73  38  45  27 /  90   0   0   0
Vicksburg     67  36  49  28 /  50   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   75  39  50  29 /  90   0   0   0
Natchez       68  36  50  29 /  60   0   0   0
Greenville    64  35  46  28 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     69  36  42  26 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/LP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
329 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-019-034-130930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-Bolivar-Sunflower-
Washington-
329 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ009-016-023>026-MSZ025>030-032-033-035>038-040>045-047>051-
053>057-059>066-072>074-130930-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
329 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early this
afternoon. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ031-039-046-052-058-130930-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Kemper-Lauderdale-Clarke-
329 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this afternoon.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph, hail
at least to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>