Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Today and Tonight...Early morning across the Deep South sees
continued convection occuring along an instability gradient and
low-level convergence zone stretched from southern Arkansas
southeast toward southern Alabama. A shortwave trough across the
Mid-South has been providing ample shear and lift to sustain
rounds of convection along this axis, with guidance pointing to a
southward and eastward shift to the focus heading into the daytime
today and by this evening as the shortwave kicks eastward.
Shortwave ridging farther west and an elevated mixed layer will
reinforce a reservoir of hot, conditionally unstable air to our
southwest along the TX/LA Gulf Coast, with flow through the lower
levels advecting this air into our forecast area today and
tonight. Regional 00Z soundings showed 8.5C/km lapse rates atop
the EML, and this won't change for the Day 1 period. Forecast
soundings show nearly saturated lower levels with moist-adiabatic
lapse rates through around 700mb heading into today, and only
minimal heating will be needed to trigger additional surface-based
storms by mid-morning. Deep-layer wind shear of 50-60 kts will
support sustained updrafts and supercell development, and these
long lived storms will be capable of producing potentially large
hail greater than 2 inches diameter and wind gusts over 70 mph.
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms mainly south of a
line from Monticello, AR/Greenville, MS to Meridian, MS for this
expected activity today. The Flood Watch will continue into mid-
morning today as heavy rain remains a threat, and some storms
could train over the same areas. Will let the Flood Watch end
after that as the threat for heaviest rain and training
thunderstorms shifts east with the shortwave later today, but it's
worth noting some locations have received several storms today
and soils will have become more saturated in those areas. Isolated
flash flooding cannot be ruled out from heavy thunderstorms
passing over those areas, even as the threat for more widespread
flash flooding eases some.

Another MCS is expected to develop from afternoon/evening storms
over the Southern High Plains as another shortwave moves over the
Rockies, potentially sweeping as far east and southeast as the
ArkLaMiss Delta region by late tonight into early Friday morning. An
organized MCS such as this would pose a greater risk for widespread
damaging wind gusts given the atmospheric conditions in advance of
it. We will monitor trends through the day to see how the
afternoon's convection develops in the High Plains, but expect
updates to timing and impacts for tonight across our area depending
on how that organizes today. /NF/

Friday through next Wednesday...This active weather pattern is
currently forecast to continue through the majority of the forecast
period.  Northwest flow aloft will persist across the region during
this time. Persistent southerly surface flow across the region will
also maintain the very humid and unstable airmass across the
forecast area. The above scenario, coupled with steep mid-level
lapse rates, and sufficient shear, as multiple disturbances aloft
traverse the region in said northwest flow aloft, will continue to
result in multiple rounds of scattered to numerous showers and
storms dropping southeast into and through the forecast area into at
least early next week.  As a result, there will be multiple times
through the period, in which at a minimum, isolated severe storms
will be possible across some portion of the forecast area.

A couple of such disturbances forecast to move through the CWA
Friday morning and afternoon, will yield the potential for severe
storms over much of the area.  As a result, a "Slight Risk" of
severe storms resides across the CWA Friday. Damaging wind gusts of
60 mph and hail up to the size of golf balls will be possible.
Across far southwest Mississippi and east central Louisiana,
isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to the size of quarters possible.  Near continuous lightning
strikes can be expected with all of Friday's convection, along with
heavy downpours.

Another round of potentially severe storms could affect the forecast
area Saturday.  A "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms exists
for the majority of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph
and hail to the size of quarters will be possible with the most
intense storms.

During the Sunday/Sunday night timeframe, a closed mid/upper level
low will drop southeast from the east central plains, through the
Mid-South region, and into the Tennessee Valley.  This could again
result in at least one, possibly two, rounds of potentially severe
storms across portions of the region as disturbances aloft
associated with it move through the region. Damaging winds of 60 mph
and up to quarter size hail could be possible with the most intense
storms.

Lastly, temperatures will continue to warm throughout the period as
ridging aloft increases from the southwest over the weekend. This is
especially the case across southwest portions of the CWA where highs
top out in the upper 90s to near the century mark Sunday into
Monday. These hot temperatures combined with the humid conditions
across the region, will result in dangerous heat stress conditions
across mainly the southwest half of the CWA through early next week.
/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

An IFR/MVFR stratus deck encompasses much of the region this
morning as scattered strong TS continue from near BQP to MEI.
Patchy light fog is also reducing visbys at a few sites. TS
activity will generally shift more south and eastward through the
day, with coverage decreasing later in the afternoon. Outside of
storms, ceilings and visbys will improve through the mid-morning
with VFR conditions returning in most areas. Overnight tonight
through early Fri morning another round of SHRA and TS is
possible. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  71  89  70 /  70  40  70  40
Meridian      89  70  88  68 /  80  20  70  50
Vicksburg     92  71  90  71 /  50  40  60  30
Hattiesburg   93  73  94  73 /  70  30  70  40
Natchez       92  72  94  72 /  60  30  50  20
Greenville    88  70  86  69 /  20  40  60  20
Greenwood     87  70  87  68 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for MSZ034>058-065-066.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/19/DL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ047-048-053>057-066-160945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Jones-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This morning

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to golf ball size are possible through this afternoon and
again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ018-019-025-027>034-038-039-160945-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Winston-Noxubee-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern portions of
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This morning

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible through this
afternoon and again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ035>037-044>046-160945-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This morning

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible through this
afternoon and again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall amounts and
areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ040>043-049>052-058-160945-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Clarke-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This morning

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to golf ball size are possible through this afternoon and
again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rainfall amounts and
areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

LAZ023>025-MSZ059>064-072>074-160945-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and southern portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to golf ball size are possible through this afternoon and
again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Due to heat index values approaching 105 degrees today, extra
caution is advised with outdoor activities.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ065-160945-
Covington-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Covington County, Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This morning

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to golf ball size are possible through this afternoon and
again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Due to heat index values approaching 105 degrees today, extra
caution is advised with outdoor activities.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

MSZ026-160945-
Grenada-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Grenada County, Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This morning

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday
through Saturday night.

LAZ026-160945-
Concordia-
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Concordia ParishLouisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible through this
afternoon and again late tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Due to heat index values approaching 105 degrees today, extra
caution is advised with outdoor activities.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 MPH and hail up to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Saturday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late through early
next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana  and
southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Saturday night.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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