Severe Thunderstorm Warning 310, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
149 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

In the big picture, all is on track with significant severe
weather (including widespread damaging wind, very large hail, and
torndoes) and the potential for flash flooding, expected to peak
later today and tonight. The environment is extreme for any time
of the year with effective deep layer bulk shear approaching 70kt
combined with steep mid/upper level lapse rates and extreme
instability (e.g., 2-6km > 8.5 deg C, MLCAPE near 4000 j/kg, including
hail producing layer CAPE in excess of 1200 j/kg, etc.).

Currently, severe storms are impacting far northeast portions of
the area, and this will continue to be a threat for the Golden
Triangle region up to early afternoon. The greater severe
weather/flooding threat looks to set up later this afternoon as
ascent increases over the volatile environment that is in place.
Supercell clusters are expected to move into or initiate over
western portions of the forecast area by mid/late aftn, and then
most recent CAM guidance suggest the supercell activity will
organize and grow upscale into an intense MCS with widespread
damaging wind potential (e.g., current derecho composite parameter
peaks over our forecast area) with significant wind speeds > 80
mph looking more probable. The big challenge is trying to pinpoint
the initiation of MCS/potential derecho as guidance varies on
this.

For now it seems the most likely area will be in the current
moderate risk along/n of I-20 in central MS. Subsequent
development following such a system would result in the severe
threat expanding further south to locations near the Highway 84
corridor. There is uncertainty with convective evolution and all
interests in the area are encouraged to have heightened awareness.
Will continue to message the event heavily and update as radar/obs
trends allow. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Through tonight: A busy 24 hours is ahead of us as an anomalous
pattern for June continues to take shape. Local residents are
strongly urged to be weather aware particularly this afternoon
into tonight due to the strong likelihood of significant severe
weather.

For now, the next disturbance on the conveyor belt of seemingly
endless convective complexes is inciting convection from the
ArkLaTex area through North MS. While this might typically not be
the best time of day to maintain severe convection, SPC
mesoanalysis depicts 60-70 kt of effective deep layer shear and
2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE over this area, which is more than
sufficient to sustain a few of these cells as they continue
eastward this morning.

Upstream yet another pronounced upper disturbance and accompanying
upper jet streak will be moving from the Ozarks toward the Mid
South this afternoon into tonight. Unfortunately, the timing of
the arrival of this disturbance will overlap with very high
instability with forecast mid level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km
and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. The low levels will be moisture-rich,
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s south of the surface front.
Deep layer shear will remain strong across the entire area with
forecast 500 mb wind magnitudes at the max of model climatology
for this time of year across much of our area. New convection will
erupt during the mid to late afternoon time frame to our
northwest in closer proximity to the upper disturbance and again
track eastward roughly along the stalled surface boundary and into
our area. Multiple waves of storms are possible, and
unfortunately, they may persist well into the overnight tonight.
Given the expected environment as described above, significant
severe weather is expected, including wind gusts up to 80 MPH and
hail up to tennis ball size. In addition, while ambient low level
shear is not forecast to be exceptional, the abundance of
moisture, instability, and deep layer shear combined with the
potential for complex storm-scale interactions will result in some
potential for tornadoes. While tornadoes are not expected to be
the primary threat, a few will be possible.

With multiple rounds of strong convection in the offing and an
anchoring surface front in place, training of convection may result
in excessive rainfall amounts where storms are most persistent.
Given that some areas have already been impacted by locally heavy
rainfall in recent days and the high confidence in convection over
the next 24 hours, we have opted to post a Flood Watch for much
of Central MS which will run through the overnight tonight. /DL/

Thursday through next Tuesday...The ongoing active weather
pattern currently looks to continue into early next week.
Northwest flow aloft will persist across the region during this
time. Persistent southerly surface flow across the region will
also maintain the very humid conditions across the forecast area,
with heat increasing through the weekend and into next week. This,
with a near conveyor belt of disturbances embedded in said
northwest flow aloft, will continue to result in multiple rounds
of scattered to numerous showers and storms dropping southeast
into and through the forecast area Thursday into at least early
next week.

One such disturbance moving across central and southeast
Mississippi Thursday afternoon, could yield some isolated severe
storms over these areas at that time. Damaging wind gusts and hail
up to the size of quarters will be possible. Then on Friday,
another disturbance traversing the CWA will bring another risk for
severe storms during the late morning and afternoon hours. This
is especially the across northern portions of the area where a
"Slight Risk" resides. There, damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and
hail up to the size of golf balls will be possible. Elsewhere
across the remainder of the forecast area during this time,
isolated severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts and
hail up to the size of quarters possible.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the period as ridging
aloft increases from the southwest. With highs in the low and
middle 90s expected Saturday, these will warm further Sunday
through Tuesday with highs across southwest portions of the CWA
topping out at or near the century mark. These hot temperatures
combined with the humid conditions across the region, will result
in dangerous heat stress across mainly the southwest half of the
CWA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Severe TSRA with damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary concern moving across the area with greatest confidence
for severe storms and possible derecho impacting the JAN/HKS to
MEI area between 21z and 00z. Additional TSRA may redevelop later
tonight. Otherwise, expect the typical late night/early mornign
stratus development given the persistent weather pattern. Strong
mixing will allow for gusty aftn/evng sfc wind with strong llws
a threat mainly overnight. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  69  88  70 /  50  80  50  30
Meridian      89  67  86  68 /  50  90  60  40
Vicksburg     91  70  90  71 /  50  80  40  30
Hattiesburg   92  73  94  73 /  30  40  60  30
Natchez       92  71  93  72 /  30  50  30  20
Greenville    87  68  86  70 /  70  80  40  30
Greenwood     87  68  86  69 /  70  80  50  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ034>058-065-066.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/DL/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ023-MSZ019-025-027-028-031>034-038-039-059-062-
072>074-151000-
Ashley-Chicot-Franklin LA-Sunflower-Leflore-Carroll-Montgomery-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Winston-Noxubee-Jefferson-
Lincoln-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph and hail up to tennis ball size are likely. Tornadoes
are also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through Thursday.

MSZ018-026-029-030-151000-
Bolivar-Grenada-Webster-Clay-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-025-MSZ053-054-063>065-151000-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Tensas-
Claiborne-Copiah-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts up to 80 mph and hail up to tennis ball size are
likely. Tornadoes are also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Thursday for
portions of central and south Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through Thursday.

MSZ035>037-151000-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph and hail up to tennis ball size are likely. Tornadoes
are also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple waves of thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall amounts and areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be
flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Thursday for
portions of central and south Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through tonight.

MSZ040>052-055>058-066-151000-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jones-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts up to 80 mph and hail up to tennis ball size are
likely. Tornadoes are also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Multiple waves of thunderstorms will produce locally heavy
rainfall amounts and areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be
flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Thursday for
portions of central and south Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through Thursday.

LAZ024-MSZ060-061-151000-
Catahoula-Adams-Franklin MS-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts up
to 70 mph and hail up to tennis ball size are likely. Tornadoes
are also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Thursday for
portions of central and south Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail quarter to golf ball size are possible Friday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
today through Thursday.

LAZ026-151000-
Concordia-
446 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for Concordia Parish, Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Dangerous heat and increasing heat stress, with heat index values
approaching 105 to 110 degrees, is possible late this week into
early next week, primarily across northeast and central Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
127 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Hail             Clarkson                33.64N 89.15W
06/14/2023  E0.88 inch       Webster            MS   Public

            Twitter user posted nickel-sized hail in
            Clarkson, MS.

&&

LCP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
136 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Hail             4 W Prairie Point       33.14N 88.46W
06/14/2023  E1.25 inch       Noxubee            MS   Public

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
140 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     Hail             Brooksville             33.23N 88.58W
06/14/2023  E2.50 inch       Noxubee            MS   Broadcast Media

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
148 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSW Alligator         34.07N 90.73W
06/14/2023                   Bolivar            MS   Emergency Mngr

            A couple trees down between Duncan and
            Alligator.

&&

CE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
231 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Hail             Brooksville             33.23N 88.58W
06/14/2023  E5.00 inch       Noxubee            MS   Public

            5+in hail reported in Brooksville.

&&

KP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     Hail             Kosciusko               33.06N 89.59W
06/14/2023  E0.70 inch       Attala             MS   Emergency Mngr

            EM reported dime sized hail in the town of
            Kosciusko.

&&

LCP