Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
111 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

All is generally on track for this near term forecast update.
We expect storms to develop later this afternoon as we heat up along
a nearly stationary frontal boundary that extends west to east
across southern portions of the forecast area. There is
sufficient deep layer flow for storms to organize into a
convective system and push through the lower Pine Belt/I-59
corridor by early evening. A lower-end severe wind/hail threat is
still expected with this activity and will continue to advertise
it in the HWO. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Today and Tonight: Early morning surface analysis had a weak cold
front nearly along our Highway 82 corridor that emanated from a
surface low over western Pennsylvania. Local radars showed a few
showers and thunderstorms south of the cold front that were noted
weakening near the Interstate 20 corridor. This convection is
expected to dissipate well before sunrise despite the cold front
continuing to sag and eventually stall near Interstate 20 this
morning. Satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the
southern periphery of a large closed low centered over the Great
Lakes region and downstream of a mid level ridge centered over the
southern and central Plains. Together these features were
maintaining northwest flow aloft across our region that models
suggest will become nearly zonal by this evening. Daytime heating of
the moist and unstable airmass along and south of the stalled cold
front will again lead to the potential for strong to severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. These storms are expected
to move east southeast so the area at risk for severe storm develop
this afternoon and early evening is generally along and south of
Interstate 20. This area is also where our afternoon highs top out in
the lower 90s again while the cooler drier air north of the cold
front helps hold temperatures in the 80s. The day's convection is
expected to diminish early this evening and there may even be a few
hours lull in convection before additional storms start moving back
into our northwest after midnight. Another shortwave rounding the
base of the large closed low centered over the Great lakes region
and embedded in our nearly zonal flow aloft is progged to develop
storms west of our CWA during the evening and then spread east into
our CWA after midnight. This activity is not expected to be severe
but a strong wind gust or two along with a brief heavy downpour will
be possible. /22/

Tuesday through next Monday...

A subtropical ridge is extending east across the Southern Plains
into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This should allow for warm
gulf air to settle across our CWA leading to increasing temperatures
and diurnal convection for much of Tuesday. Given the alignment of
this slow moving west to east frontal boundary, some of the storms
have the potential to become severe. Because of this, we will
advertise a "Slight" risk for severe storms across the forecast area
through Tuesday evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to golf
ball size will the primary concerns with this system. Some of these
storms could train across northern portions of central Mississippi,
resulting in heavy rainfall across the southeast US. For this
reason, we will continue to advertise a "Limited" threat for much of
Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe threat should begin to move
further east as the frontal boundary slowly shifts east across
Alabama. After collaborating with the Storm Prediction Center, we
have decided to advertise a "Slight" risk for severe storms for much
of Wednesday. The exact timeframe of these storms is unknown at this
time, however we will be keeping an close eye on this system and
will provide updates as this system develops.

Afternoon highs forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s across
the southeast region later this week. A couple of locations could
see heat indices reaching between 106-110 degrees mainly across the
Pine Belt. In response to this, we will continue to advertise a
"Elevated" risk for heat stress mainly for the southwest portion of
our CWA. Make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if
working outdoors. Rain chances should continue into the weekend
before tapering off by next Monday giving us a small break from the
rain. /CRJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Timing of convective systems will be most critical in this
forecast period...appears one round of SHRA/TS will impact mainly
the HEZ-HBG corridor late this aftn/early evng, then another
system will move along/north of HKS/JAN to MEI corridor late
tonight through early Tue morning. Outside of convective systems,
VFR conditions should prevail for the most part with tendency for
late night/early morning stratus to develop. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  68  89  69 /  40  40  60  60
Meridian      87  66  88  68 /  40  50  70  70
Vicksburg     85  69  91  70 /  40  40  40  60
Hattiesburg   90  71  93  73 /  60  20  30  30
Natchez       88  70  91  71 /  60  10  30  30
Greenville    81  66  85  69 /  10  70  70  70
Greenwood     81  65  85  68 /  10  70  80  80

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

EC/22/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ035-036-040>046-050>052-130945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Humphreys-
Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and quarter size hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast
Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire
outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds
and hail up to quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized
flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast
area late this week into the weekend.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

MSZ018-019-025>034-037>039-130945-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast
Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire
outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds
and hail up to quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized
flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast
area late this week into the weekend.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Wednesday night.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>049-053>066-072>074-130945-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
435 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible and a tornado cannot be ruled
out for extreme southeast Arkansas, portions of northeast
Louisiana, and all of central Mississippi on Tuesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms wiill be possible across the entire
outlook area on Wednesday. Primary hazards will be damaging winds
and hail up to quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Heavy rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday may also lead to localized
flash flooding, particularly for areas along and north of
Interstate 20.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Heat stress will be on the increase for parts of the forecast
area late this week into the weekend.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

97

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

MSZ066-122045-
Jones MS-
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jones County
through 345 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellisville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ellisville around 330 PM CDT.
  Laurel around 340 PM CDT.
  Tuckers Crossing around 345 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8936 3177 8929 3172 8895 3147 8905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 286DEG 7KT 3167 8925

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB

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