Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis
had the large closed low that has been over the New England states
the last couple of days, north of Maine and into Canada. The upper
level trough axis associated with this low will continue shifting
east today and our northwest flow aloft early this morning will
become more zonal by afternoon. A shortwave trough within this
nearly zonal flow aloft will move over our CWA during peak heating
and enhance convection; some of which may become strong to severe.
The 00Z Saturday JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.68in and PWATs are
expected to increase above an inch and three quarters this
afternoon. Early morning surface analysis showed dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface analysis had a weak ridge across the
Gulf coast from the east that is expected to result in a light
southerly wind today that will help maintain low level moisture
through the afternoon. Together these features are expected to lead
to a greater coverage of mainly afternoon and evening convection.
CAMs suggest that convection across our CWA will increase by noon
and to our west as the shortwave trough approaches. By mid afternoon
the convection to our west may become more organized and spread into
our CWA. This activity will bring a risk for damaging winds and
perhaps hail to quarter size. This activity is expected to continue
spreading east southeast across our CWA during the evening and
should dissipate or shift southeast of our southeast most zones
before midnight. Temperatures are expected to make it into the lower
90s at most locations before getting knocked down by convection. Our
lows tonight will run warmer than normal. /22/

Sunday through Monday...

The system should begin to track east out of Mississippi by Sunday
morning as a another closed low tracks south from Central Canada
into the Ohio River Valley. This should allow for a cold front to
push into our CWA by Sunday night. Some strong storms could occur
ahead of this front mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor.
With SBCAPE near 2500 J/kg, steep mid-level (700mb-500mb) lapse
rates around 6.5 C/km, and PWAT values near 1.62 inches, the
environment looks favorable for isolated severe convection. Because
of this, we will continue advertise a "Marginal" Risk for isolated
severe storms. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph along with hail up
to quarter size will the main hazards with this system. At the
moment, current model ensembles show a weak QPF signal stretching
across our forecast area. Overall, rainfall amounts should remain on
the lighter side across most of central Mississippi. Areas north of
I-20 could see rainfall amounts up to a half an inch where localized
downpours will be possible.

As the cold front shifts further south and stalls across the lower
Mississippi Valley late Monday afternoon, there is a possibility
that thunderstorms could redevelop south of I-20. After
collaborating with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), we will
advertise a "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms with damaging
wind gusts and quarter size hail being the primary hazards. The
closed low should begin to slowly track northeastward along with the
cold front and clearing out of our forecast area by late Monday
evening.

Tuesday through the weekend...

Out towards the west, a low pressure system centered across
California is slowly pushing eastward across the southwest CONUS. In
response to this, a ridge axis is tracking east across the Southern
Plains towards the southeast US. This should allow for warm gulf air
to settle across our CWA leading to increasing temperatures and
diurnal convection. Wednesday through Friday looks to be the hottest
days with afternoon highs forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s
across the southeast region. A couple of locations could see heat
indexes reaching 105. In response to this, we will continue to
advertise a "Limited" risk for heat stress mainly for the southwest
portion of our CWA. Make sure to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks if working outdoors. /CRJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

All TAF sits are VFR this afternoon and expect sites to remain VFR
through the evening hours. Showers/thunderstorms may bring brief
MVFR/IFR conditions to sites this afternoon into the evening
hours. Stratus will develop overnight bringing MVFR, possibly IFR
ceilings 09-15Z./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  68  91  70 /  70  50  50  60
Meridian      92  68  91  69 /  70  60  50  70
Vicksburg     94  70  92  71 /  70  50  40  60
Hattiesburg   94  69  92  71 /  80  70  40  30
Natchez       93  68  90  71 /  60  50  40  40
Greenville    91  69  90  68 /  80  30  60  60
Greenwood     91  70  90  68 /  80  40  70  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ034-035-040>043-047>049-
053-054-059>062-110845-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Washington-
Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at
least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Sunday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across north Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Monday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across south Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Dangerous heat is possible within the region on Wednesday through
the rest of the week. Some areas can experience heat indexes up
to 105. This potential weather event is still several days away
and the timing  and impacts will likely be adjusted in later
forecasts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ018-019-025>029-032-033-036>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-
063>066-072>074-110845-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Sunday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across north Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Monday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across south Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Dangerous heat is possible within the region on Wednesday through
the rest of the week. Some areas can experience heat indexes up
to 105. This potential weather event is still several days away
and the timing  and impacts will likely be adjusted in later
forecasts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Monday.

MSZ030-031-110845-
Clay-Lowndes-
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Sunday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across north Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible Monday afternoon
and early evening. The main potential for severe storms will be
across south Mississippi, and northeastern Louisiana.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Dangerous heat is possible within the region on Wednesday through
the rest of the week. Some areas can experience heat indexes up
to 105. This potential weather event is still several days away
and the timing  and impacts will likely be adjusted in later
forecasts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
through Sunday night.

97

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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