Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
247 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Tonight & Saturday...

Tonight: Expect convection to wind down into early evening.
Persistent southerly return flow will keep high boundary layer
moisture around for the overnight hours. Clouds will persist, with
some lower stratus building in into the overnight hours. Some
patchy fog is possible in central to southeast MS but especially
into the Pine Belt just before daybreak. Can't rule out some
fog being locally dense in the Pine Belt but confidence is too
low to put in the HWO/graphics. Lows will be some 5-8 degrees
above normal, in the mid 60s to the east to near 70 degrees in the
ArkLaMiss Delta.

Saturday: Expect low-level anticyclone to build to the west-
northwest into Saturday, with increasing mid-level heights over
the region. Some slightly drier air will build in, hovering around
or just less than 1.5 inch PWs. With strong low-level WAA (i.e.
low-level thermo in the mid teens-low 20s C at 925mb & 850mb,
respectively) aftn highs will peak into the upper 80s-low 90s.
Mid-level lapse rates & vertical totals/instability won't be as
high as today (i.e. ~7 deg C @ 700-500mb & mid-upper 20s vertical
totals) & combined with somewhat drier air & decreased low-level
flow, aftn diurnal microburst potential will be less than today.
However, a few strong storms & a rogue isolated severe storm or
two can't be fully ruled out. Convection will wind down into
early evening. In addition, heat stress will pick up, with heat
indices climbing into the low-mid 90s. /DC/

Saturday Night through next Thursday...

Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the region
through the latter half of the weekend and into early next week.
As this happens, high pressure at the surface centered east of the
region will continue to supply plenty of moisture to the forecast
area. The amplification of the ridge will result in highs through
early next week peaking in the lower 90s areawide, with very
humid conditions. This will also lead to an unstable airmass each
afternoon with diurnally driven convection breaking out each day.
Because of this overall setup in this moisture rich environment
over the area, the potential for microbursts will need to be
assessed on a daily basis as at least some potential will probably
be possible each day. This will determine whether there's any
potential for at least isolated strong to severe storms each
afternoon.

The ridge will begin breaking down across the region late Monday
night into Tuesday as a trough approaches and swings through the
region from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday. This is currently
progged to push a cold front south into and through the forecast
area mid-week, with some chance that the front could actually stall
over some portion of the area during this time.  This scenario will
keep at least some chance for showers and storms in the forecast
through the extended period. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA are ongoing, with some remnant
decaying TSRA to the north bringing lowered vsby reductions at GLH
& GWO to MVFR-IFR flight categories. All sites will have some
potential for impacts/reductions to MVFR-IFR through the aftn,
with eastern sites a little later. Brief gusts up to 40kts are
psbl in any stronger convection. TSRA/SHRA will clear after
13/00-02Z. Surface wind will be mostly light, generally less than
10mph, from the south. Expect potential MVFR-IFR flight category
stratus/cigs, with potential lower vsby, after 13/08-09Z through
mid-morning Sat. More isolated-scattered TSRA/SHRA are expected
into Sat aftn. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  90  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
Meridian      66  90  66  93 /  20  20  10  30
Vicksburg     69  89  68  90 /  20  20  10  10
Hattiesburg   68  90  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
Natchez       69  89  67  90 /  30  30  10  20
Greenville    69  89  70  91 /  20  20   0  20
Greenwood     69  90  69  92 /  20  30   0  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/19/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1244 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131745-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1244 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through early evening

Today through early evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and
hail up to quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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