Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
122 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Today through tonight: Isolated severe storms will be possible
today as global guidance continue to highlight a low pressure
system, enhanced by a mesoscale convective vortex, slowly shifting
northeastward across portions of northern Mississippi. Both the
GFS and the ECWMF are in better alignment with each other
regarding the timing of system. With steep lapse rates (between
6.5-7.4 C/km), decent MUCAPE values around 1800 j/kg, and some
decent deep layer shear, the environment overall appears favorable
for decent convection. Because of this, we are continuing to
advertise a "Marginal" risk (1/5) for severe weather for most of
our CWA. As mentioned in previous discussions, damaging wind gusts
along with hail up to quarter size will be the main hazards. A
brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the severe potential, some of these storms could
produce locally heavy downpours at times. Global ensemble guidance
show a much stronger QPF signal compared to yesterday. Because of
this, we are continuing to advertise a "Elevated" risk for flash
flooding along with a flash flood watch for northeast Louisiana and
southwest Mississippi. Rainfall amounts between 2 - 4 inches will
be possible during this timeframe with locally heavier amounts.
The severe potential should begin to decrease by tonight as
subtropical ridging builds from the ENE. /CRJ/

Friday through Wednesday: A weather pattern more typical of June
is expected for the weekend as anomalous ridging centers over the
forecast area. Moist, anticyclonic flow associated with the warm
ridge will support disorganized, diurnally driven showers and
storms as afternoon temperatures peak near to slightly above 90 in
many locations. There will be an upper level pattern change
however for early next week. The ridge is expected to break down
with northwest flow enveloping much of the eastern CONUS. This
should send a cold front through the area Monday and possibly
enhance storm potential. It's possible the front could hang up and
keep shower chances going through Wednesday, and high
temperatures should not be nearly as warm. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe, are moving into
our region from the west. A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR will occur
across central Mississippi as these storms make their way
eastward throughout this TAF period. Possible low visibilities
can occur due to periodical heavy rainfall across several TAF
sites today. Once these storms move through the area by 04Z,
conditions should revert back to VFR, with some sites continuing
to experience MVFR conditions during the early morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  88  68  89 /  40  50  10  20
Meridian      65  88  65  91 /  30  60  10  20
Vicksburg     67  88  69  89 /  20  40  10  20
Hattiesburg   67  87  68  89 /  50  50   0  30
Natchez       69  87  68  88 /  20  50  10  30
Greenville    67  87  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
Greenwood     67  87  70  89 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040-047-053-
     059>061.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

LCP/19/LCP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

ARZ074-075-MSZ034-035-121615-
Ashley-Chicot-Washington-Humphreys-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Early this morning through this afternoon, localized flash
flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ018-019-121615-
Bolivar-Sunflower-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ025>033-121615-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

LAZ007>009-MSZ047-121615-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Warren-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ053-059>061-121615-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Early this morning through this afternoon, areas of flash
flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some
structures may be potentially threatened by high water.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ036-065-073-121615-
Holmes-Covington-Lamar-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ040>043-048-049-054-055-062-063-121615-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Hinds-Rankin-Copiah-Simpson-
Lincoln-Lawrence-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Early this morning through this afternoon, localized flash
flooding is possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-066-074-121615-
Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-Forrest-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail up to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ064-072-121615-
Jefferson Davis-Marion-
1109 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low
lying and urban areas.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

11

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1054 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

LAZ007-111630-
Morehouse LA-
1054 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Morehouse Parish through 1130 AM CDT...

At 1054 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Sterlington, or 10 miles northwest of Bastrop, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Morehouse Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Arkansas...and northeastern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9208 3300 9207 3301 9207 3301 9182
      3276 9206 3280 9205 3282 9207 3283 9207
      3284 9206 3287 9208 3293 9207 3296 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 206DEG 27KT 3285 9208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE TALLULAH          32.42N 91.15W
05/11/2023  M52 MPH          MADISON            LA   PUBLIC

            A 52 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT A PRIVATE
            WEATHER STATION AT THE SCOTT AIRPORT NEAR
            TALLULAH.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ARCHIBALD         32.39N 91.75W
05/11/2023                   RICHLAND           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

KP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

ARZ074-111900-
Ashley AR-
1259 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ashley
County through 200 PM CDT...

At 1259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berlin, or 8 miles southeast of Hamburg, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilmot around 115 PM CDT.
  Parkdale around 125 PM CDT.
  Portland around 135 PM CDT.
  Montrose around 140 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southeastern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 9146 3301 9146 3301 9178 3324 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 251DEG 19KT 3312 9170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
125 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW HAMBURG           33.27N 91.81W
05/11/2023                   ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY UPROOTED SOFTWOOD TREES AND ROOF BLOW
            OFF HOUSE.

&&

KP