Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1237 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 906 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Shower activity continues to move off to the east this morning.
This first round of precipitation due to a lifting warm front from
the south has pretty much remained all showers with the exception
of a few rumbles of thunder for areas west of the MS river. This
initial round of morning showers will continue to clear out and
redevelopment during the afternoon is still expected. While
parameters for severe potential this afternoon is still
questionable however, outflow trailing the warm front is the main
focus for initiation this afternoon and combined with peak
heating, one or two strong to severe thunderstorms south of the
I-20 corridor can't be ruled out. The main threats will be
damaging winds and small hail. Skies will be cloudy to partly
cloudy with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the north to the
mid to low 80s across the south and west. /JNE/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

Today & tonight...

Today: Synoptic/GOES-E water vapor analysis this morning indicates
mid-level ridge axis has become centered over the central Plains &
low-level ridge building southeast over the Atlantic seaboard. Warm
front along the northern Gulf Coast/southerly return flow has aided
in low-level dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s.
RAP/GOES-E water vapor/IR imagery indicate shortwave/ascent moving
into the ArkLaTex. Combined with increased moisture (i.e. PWs around
an inch & a half) & upper level jet dynamics/ascent, decaying
complex of storms are moving out of the ArkLaTex into the MS River
corridor. Majority of this is expected to continue to wane over the
next several hours, but can't rule out a strong storm nosing into
northeast LA or far extreme southwest MS over the next hour or two.
These storms are progged to swing E but decay with time. In the
wake, increased moisture (i.e. dewpoints into the mid 60s to near 70
degrees) & moderate destabilization in west-southwest zones in
northeast LA & central-western MS should serve as the impetus for
late morning-afternoon convective redevelopment. With 25-45kt mean
bulk shear in the 0-3km/0-6km layers, some isolated-scattered strong
storms are possible & can't rule out a couple isolated severe
storms. For any aftn redevelopment, this will likely be a combo of
multicell/bowing structures & any moving east-southeast will have
the best strong-severe potential. However, areas in eastern MS will
have less aftn potential, based on recent trends in convective-
allowing models including the recent HRRR. Made some small
adjustments to the inherited "Marginal" area in eastern MS from SPC,
with main concerns of gusty wind & some hail. Widespread clouds will
persist today, with highs warm near to slightly above normal in the
mid-upper 70s NE to low-mid 80s to the south & west. Rain & storms
will spread east-southeast through the day but gradually clear from
northwest-southeast into the mid-late aftn hours.

Tonight: Subtropical ridge axis will become centered over the Bay of
Campeche, with the nose of the shortwave ridge moving into the
region. This should help lead to increased subsidence & decreased
rain chances after midnight, but can't rule out some in east-
northeast MS closer to daybreak. With the warm front & high boundary
layer moisture, widespread clouds will persist, with lows some 8-10
degrees above normal in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in the
ArkLaMiss Delta & northeast LA to low 60s in eastern MS. /DC/

Saturday through Thursday...

The humid airmass will persist through the remainder of the
forecast period, with an almost summerlike diurnal cycle of rain
and thunderstorm chances. Periods of greater coverage will be
driven by mesoscale features not yet resolvable beyond 24 hours.
On Saturday, for instance, there are hints in the guidance that
greater rain coverage may exist roughly along and south of I-20 as
a subtle midlevel shortwave tracks along the Gulf Coast.
Otherwise, we'll maintain scattered PoPs through the remainder of
the forecast given the present moisture and daytime instability
and refine location/coverage details as each day gets closer in
time. With daytime instability moderate to strong at times and PWs
peaking near 1.5-2 inches, strong storms and locally heavy
rainfall can't be ruled out primarily in the afternoons, but there
are currently no specific days that stick out as targets for
higher potential. Outside of the rain, conditions will be
seasonably warm as mid level ridging prevails for most of the
extended. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023

A mix of flight categories will prevail through this forecast
period. Afternoon VCTS to TSRA has begun to move in and will stick
around through about 22-23Z. This along with lowering ceilings/vis
will allow for VFR to LIFR conditions. Across northern sites, VFR
to MVFR is expected but the further south you go, for areas such
as JAN, MEI, and HBG, MVFR to LIFR conditions will be possible
thanks to overnight/early morning BR combined with low clouds.
With rain chances and cloudy skies expected through tomorrow,
these ranges of flight categories will likely roll over into
tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be E/SE up to 10 mph with gusts up
to 20 mph. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  67  88  67 /  70  20  60  20
Meridian      82  64  89  64 /  70  30  60  10
Vicksburg     84  69  88  68 /  70  10  50  20
Hattiesburg   83  67  90  66 /  80  20  70  10
Natchez       84  69  88  68 /  70  10  70  10
Greenville    79  69  88  69 /  70  20  40  10
Greenwood     77  68  88  69 /  70  20  50  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

JNE/DL/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
417 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025>034-036>039-044>046-052-060930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Lauderdale-
417 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central
Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ035-040>043-047>051-053>066-072>074-
060930-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
417 AM CDT Fri May 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible
across portions of northeast Louisiana, western, central to
southeast Mississippi during the daytime hours.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>