Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
611 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Through tomorrow: Light to heavy showers will remain widespread
throughout the region this afternoon into the late evening as a
warm front stalls over the region. PWATs are well over sounding
climo, nearing 1.5-1.7 inches for the end of January. A "Marginal"
risk for severe weather remains possible for the Pine Belt
region. The main threat will be damaging winds, especially in
areas where saturated soils increase downed trees potential from
gusty winds. Otherwise, the main threat for the remainder of the
afternoon/evening will be the potential for flash flooding,
specifically in the Pine Belt, where a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued through 6 AM Monday. By tonight, warm air advection will
weaken as the warm front stalls near the MS/AL coast. Southerly
moisture will keep cloud cover spread across the region overnight
and showers will decrease from west to east. Patchy fog will be
possible for most of the region as rain chances decrease
overnight.

By tomorrow morning, a surface front will begin to push into the
northwestern portions of the ArkLaMiss Delta, keeping most of the
region dry. In the southeast, lingering moisture from the warm front
hanging out at the Gulf Coast will keep showers in the forecast for
Monday morning. Temperatures are expected to decrease throughout the
day as the surface front moves southeast. By the beginning of the
long term period, temperatures will range in the lower 40s in the
northwest to the low 60s in the southeast. /AJ/

Monday night through next weekend:

Monday night - Friday: Overall, we are going to be locked into a
pretty wet period through the week with the potential for heavy
rainfall and perhaps flooding. There may also be a concern for light
freezing rain and ice accumulation, especially early to mid week,
over the upper ArkLaMiss Delta region.

In the details, the southerly return flow off of the Gulf of Mexico
will continue to feed moisture into the area evident with
precipitable water values hovering around 1.2-1.4 inches which is
quite anomalous for this time of the year. Rainfall will be also
influenced by a front that will move pretty slow and stall somewhat
until Thursday. This front is being reinforced by the cold upper low
that will be moving across the Great Lakes, and this will keep
northerly flow and shallow strong cold advection over the Delta
region in particular. Consequently this will provide a potential for
a couple of periods of freezing rain for Tuesday morning and
Tuesday evening into the the night. Rain falling into the colder
and drier air with surface dewpoints down into the upper 20s could
potentially lead to some very light ice accumulation on elevated
objects if the cold advection is greater than forecast by the
consensus of models.

By Thursday, an upper low will eject eastward from the Rockies
and clear the previous front out of the area. In addition to heavy
rainfall, this low will open the door for some severe weather on
Thursday, though the environment doesn't look substantial per
latest guidance at first glance. There is a potential for a decent
warm sector to develop inland into the southern portions of the
forecast area ( e.g., guidance has dewpoints ~ 66-68 degrees up to
Natchez), therefore this will definitely be something to watch as
we get closer to the end of the week. Rain should move out of the
region by the end of the day Friday. With the presence of rain
through out the week, we are going to monitor the threat for flash
flooding through the area.

In terms of messaging, we are currently advertising the risk for
flooding later this week, and WPC continues to included much of our
area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, so we will keep this
going in the HWO graphics. We may also eventually need to add a
limited threat for light ice accumulation in the upper Delta region
for mainly the Tue-Tue night period. Be sure to check back for
future updates.

Saturday and Sunday: An upper level ridge is expected to build into
the area Saturday behind the departing system, so conditions should
be pretty then, however, the next shortwave trough may approach by
Sunday, and this could bring our next chance for rain. /NP/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Widespread RA will continue with prevailing IFR ceilings due to
low stratus expected through around 10Z-12Z Monday. Even as RA and
BR dissipate, low stratus with IFR conditions is expected to
prevail through the remainder of the period. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  62  46  52 /  90  20  30  30
Meridian      55  64  50  58 / 100  20  20  20
Vicksburg     55  60  41  46 /  90  10  40  40
Hattiesburg   58  71  57  67 /  70  20  10  20
Natchez       58  63  45  51 /  80  20  20  30
Greenville    44  49  35  37 /  70  10  70  60
Greenwood     48  54  38  42 /  80  10  60  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Monday for MSZ072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

AJ/EC/NF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
254 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-025>047-302100-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
254 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Flooding is possible for extreme southeast Arkansas, southwest
Mississippi, portions of south central Mississippi, northeast
Louisiana, all of north central Mississippi, and all of central
Mississippi Wednesday night through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

LAZ024>026-MSZ048>066-302100-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
254 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Flooding is possible for extreme southeast Arkansas, southwest
Mississippi, portions of south central Mississippi, northeast
Louisiana, all of north central Mississippi, and all of central
Mississippi Wednesday night through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

MSZ072>074-302100-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
254 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Flooding is possible for extreme southeast Arkansas, southwest
Mississippi, portions of south central Mississippi, northeast
Louisiana, all of north central Mississippi, and all of central
Mississippi Wednesday night through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

33

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html