Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1106 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Local radars showed the leading edge of a band of showers and
thunderstorms southwest to northeast from Richland Parish, LA to
Clay County MS. This band of storms was ahead of an approaching
cold front that will continue to drift slowly to the southeast the
remainder of the night. A few of the storms may contain small hail
and produce a wind gust to 40 mph but severe storms are not
anticipated. Satellite imagery showed clear skies across our
southeast. It is possible some patchy fog may develop across our
southeast after midnight before the precipitation moves in closer
to morning. Overall, no significant changes were needed to the
forecast. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow: A shortwave trough will move across the
area tonight from west to east which will be the primary mechanism
for continuing rain and storm chances this evening. The trough
will push a weak cold front with Pacific origins slowly
southeastward through the area mostly tonight, but only finally
clearing the Pine Belt by early tomorrow afternoon. With weak
cyclogenesis along the frontal wave, substantial moisture recovery
in the boundary layer is not ongoing nor expected which will
leave any potential storms mostly starved of boundary layer
instability. Marginal shear profiles below 500 mb suggests that a
stronger gust or two can't be ruled out from a briefly stronger
thunderstorm tonight into Sunday, but severe weather is not
expected. Most areas will however see some rainfall with many
hearing a few rumbles of thunder. Most areas will see around 0.25
to 0.85 inches of rain, but a corridor along and near the Natchez
Trace could receive 1-2 inches as storms may briefly move slowly
across that area tonight. Lows tonight will be mild with rain
falling, mostly in the low to mid 50s F. Highs on Sunday will
continue to be mild, but a bit drier, highs mostly in the low to
mid 60s F with dewpoints sinking into the 40s F by early evening.
/86/

Sunday night through Tuesday: Dry and seasonably cooler
conditions will return by Sunday evening in the wake of the front.
After a dry Monday, another mid-level wave will push toward the
Ohio Valley resulting in a relatively weak surface system tracking
across the northern Gulf. This wave will remain lower-amplitude
until it moves east of our region, and with a very limited window
for moisture return ahead of it, the most we expect in our region
is isolated shower activity across parts of south MS and south LA
Monday night. Otherwise, most areas will just see a period of
increased clouds. Once this system shifts eastward, we will remain
in southerly low level flow, leading to a warming trend by
Tuesday.

Wednesday through next Saturday: By the middle of the week, a
deeper upper trough will take shape over the Four Corners region
and shift eastward across the continent Thursday into Friday. An
associated surface cyclone is forecast to track from the mid-
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front
across our area around Thursday. This system is still about five
days out so much could still change, but the larger scale pattern
of strong deep-layer shear and sufficient upper forcing may
support a threat for severe weather. Some of the finer details,
such as exact timing/available instability, still need to be
resolved before we can have a better idea if a severe threat may
be realized. Clouds and some light wrap- around rain showers may
persist into Friday before high pressure builds in with dry
weather and seasonable temperatures for next weekend. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023

The leading edge of a band of shra/tsra was noted on radars
from GTR-TVR. The back edge of the band was already se of GLH
which was reporting LIFR vsby. Lower flying conditions wl
develop over night as the band of shra/tsra spread se across the
remainder of the area. Flight restrictions down to LIFR wl be
psbl until Sunday aftn as a cold front moves across the area and
conditions improve from the nw. MVFR/IFR conditions wl last
through the end of the 06Z TAF period in east and se MS. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  63  39  59 /  90  70   0   0
Meridian      53  63  39  59 /  50 100   0   0
Vicksburg     54  63  39  61 /  90  50   0   0
Hattiesburg   53  66  43  62 /  10  80  10   0
Natchez       56  63  41  62 /  90  70   0  10
Greenville    50  57  38  57 /  60  10   0   0
Greenwood     52  58  38  58 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

LP/DL/22

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

LAZ007-015-080715-
Richland LA-Morehouse LA-
1252 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Morehouse and northwestern Richland Parishes through 115 AM CST...

At 1252 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Start, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Start around 100 AM CST.
  Rayville around 105 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Oak Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 9194 3252 9190 3255 9192 3258 9192
      3260 9193 3261 9193 3263 9192 3265 9192
      3266 9175 3247 9165 3244 9195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 244DEG 28KT 3248 9193

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DC