Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Jackson, MS

059 
WGUS74 KJAN 041132
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
632 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

MSC035-073-041142-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-230704T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-
632 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN FORREST AND EAST 
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 3138 8941 3143 8915 3126 8915 3125 8915
      3124 8915 3119 8939

$$

22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Today and Tonight: Overall, cooler and wetter weather is expected
through the period. Ridging surface and aloft will continue nosing
across the Gulf from the east while a shortwave, as seen on
satellite imagery over the southern and central Plains, swings east
across our CWA this afternoon and evening. Wl maintain a moist
airmass with PWATs near two inches and surface dew points in the low
to mid 70s. This moisture will fuel a more numerous coverage of
storms today than we have seen the last couple of days. The
increased rain chances and associated increase in cloud cover will
help hold afternoon highs to the upper 80s and lower 90s. These
lower temperatures will help keep peak heat index values below 105F
today. There will still be enough instability during peak heating
that isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail
to the size of quarters will be possible over the whole CWA. Local
radars early this morning already show activity over our Interstate
59 corridor with additional convection breaking out along the Gulf
coast that will spread up into our CWA this morning. Also noted on
radar were a couple of storms along Interstate 20 over our northeast
Louisiana parishes. Thus, convection is getting an early start
today. The threat for severe storms wl end early this evening and
there will be a noted decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime
heating but a low chance for rain will continue through the night at
least across the northern half of the CWA. /22/

Wednesday through Next Tuesday...

Daily scattered to numerous showers and storms can be expected each
day through the period. On Wednesday, areas west of the MS river and
south of I-20 will remain under the influence of increasing heat
stress. While high temperatures won't climb into the upper 90s as
previous days, temperatures will still range from the low to mid 90s
and combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values around 105
degrees will be possible across these areas. A 'Limited' for heat
will continue to be advertised for these areas. With a warm
environment still in play, high CAPE values are common and while
lapse rates and shear values aren't impressive, there will be
increased mid-level westerly flow. This environment will support
strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday during peak
heating hours and lasting through the evening. A 'Marginal' risk
will be advertised across our entire coverage area. The main threats
will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to a quarter size.

A disturbance moving across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region
Thursday will push a frontal boundary through the Mid South and stall
just northwest of our coverage area by Friday. Widespread rain and
storm chances will increase Thursday through Sunday. With increased
rain chances these days, this will alleviate us from the dangerous
heat atleast through Saturday but things could warm up again by
early next week as a large high pressure builds across the southern
portions of the Four Corners region. Afternoon showers and storms
will continue into next week. High temperatures will range from the
upper 80s to the low 90s Wed-Fri and low to upper 90s Sat-Tues./JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

Isolated -TSRA wl affect JAN through 07Z and scattered -TSRA over
the se may affect MEI, PIB and HBG through 07Z before dissipating.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail
until this aftn when scattered to numerous TSRA wl develop and
affect TAF sites. Away for TSRA, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through Tue night. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  73  91  73 /  60  50  80  40
Meridian      92  72  91  72 /  70  40  80  30
Vicksburg     92  74  91  74 /  60  50  70  30
Hattiesburg   94  75  93  74 /  60  40  80  40
Natchez       91  74  91  73 /  60  30  70  30
Greenville    89  73  90  72 /  60  30  70  30
Greenwood     91  73  91  73 /  70  30  80  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/JNE/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
050830-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
330 AM CDT Tue Jul 4 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for the western and southern portions of the outlook
area on Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for the whole outlook
area again on Wednesday. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/