Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

Rest of today through Tuesday...

Increased convective activity is ongoing across the region today.
RAP analysis indicates positively tilted trough over the central
Plains to Texas, helping continued broad ascent persist across the
region. Lowered heights & broad upper level jet combined with deep
moisture of 2+ inch PWs are the impetus for scattered storms
developing across the region. There is some broad westerly bulk
shear but lighter low-level flow. This supports some wet-microbursts
with damaging wind gusts, especially any any storms that can orient
orthogonal to low-level 10-15kt bulk shear & hail up to quarter
size. Microburst composite parameters remain high across north-
northwest MS, southeast AR, & portions of northeast Louisiana.
Will continue to maintain ongoing "Marginal" risk area along & north
of Interstate 20. Some quick, slow moving heavy downpours of +2-3
inches remain possible due to light flow & light backbuilding flow.
However, flash flooding threat will very localized & no mention was
needed earlier in the HWO. With widespread cloudiness, highs will
only peak into the low-mid 90s, with heat indices peaking near 105
degrees, especially for areas along & west of I-55 & southeast along
the Hwy 49 to I-59 corridors. Due to clouds/scattered storm
coverage, no mention of heat headlines are needed.

Showers & isolated storm chances will persist into the evening
hours, with lows falling near or slightly above normal, into the low
to mid 70s. With near tropical deep moisture parked over the region
Tuesday, highs will be limited closer to normals in the low 90s.
With 5-10kt flow in the 0-2km/0-3km layers, some semi-organized
multicell/clusters & wet microbursts are again possible areawide.
SPC made an adjustment to include the entire area in a "Marginal"
risk, which looks good but continued this potential areawide into
Wednesday as mesoscale-driven convection will be difficult to pin
down more localized area for both days. Light flow will favor slow-
moving downpours of +2-3 inches again Tuesday & with high moisture/
light backbuilding flow, low flash flooding threat will again be
mesoscale/localized. One caveat is the SPC HREF indicate some
potential >3 inch prob match mean for heavy totals east of I-55
corridor. Will be something to monitor. Some heat stress could again
peak near 105 degrees in similar areas, so kept the going "Limited"
in the HWO going. /DC/

Tuesday night through Monday...

Scattered showers and storms will be common through mid week as we
continue to deal with routine summer convection. The greatest rain
chances will be mainly in the afternoon during the peak day time
heating hours. Severe potential for these storms will basically be a
coin flip each day. Instability will be rather lackluster as
temperatures continue to cool down, but sufficient lapse rates will
help with some low end microburst potential. The main threats will
be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. We will continue to
advertise a 'Marginal Risk' for severe through Wednesday areawide.

By Thursday, a shortwave will swing across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region, pushing a frontal boundary through the region. This
boundary will stall out just north of our CWA by Friday. Rain
chances will increase this weekend with the greater chances being
mainly in the southern portion of our region. As for the
temperatures, the heat will continue to stick around as highs will
be in the mainly in the low 90s for most of the week with heat
indices around 105. Fortunately, these increased rain chances may
help suppress some of this dangerous heat throughout the day.
Temperatures are expected to rise again by early next week. /LCP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

VFR conditions are expected across the region, but scattered to
numerous SHRA & TSRA could impact TAF sites through the aftn hours.
Most TAF sites this aftn before dissipating after 00Z Tue. VFR
conditions will prevail outside of convection. Winds will mainly
be southerly, generally less than 10mph & brief higher gusts,
light tonight & similar Tuesday. SHRA & TSRA coverage will be more
scattered to numerous into Tuesday aftn. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  73  90 /  30  80  40  80
Meridian      74  92  73  90 /  20  80  30  80
Vicksburg     75  91  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
Hattiesburg   75  93  74  93 /  20  70  40  80
Natchez       75  91  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
Greenville    75  90  73  90 /  30  60  20  60
Greenwood     74  92  74  91 /  40  70  20  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/LCP/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040>042-047-048-053>055-042015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Hinds-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon and again Tuesday

This afternoon through Tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon and again Tuesday, caution is advised for possible
dangerous heat as heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail to the size of quarters are possible for the entire outlook
area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for western and southern portions of the outlook area
through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Wednesday night.

MSZ026>033-036>039-043>046-049>052-056>058-042015-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...This afternoon through Tuesday

This afternoon through Tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail to the size of quarters are possible for the entire outlook
area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for western and southern portions of the outlook area
through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Wednesday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ059>066-072>074-042015-
Catahoula-Concordia-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon and again Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tuesday

This afternoon and again Tuesday, caution is advised for possible
dangerous heat as heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat
exhaustion will be possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Tuesday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail to the
size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail to the size of quarters are possible for the entire outlook
area both Tuesday and Wednesday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for western and southern portions of the outlook area
through Thursday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Wednesday night.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

MSZ025-027-032030-
Carroll MS-Leflore MS-
243 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Carroll
and central Leflore Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Itta Bena, or 9 miles west of Greenwood, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Greenwood and Money around 315 PM CDT.
  Teoc, Avalon and Malmaison around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3371 9014 3368 9014 3367 9013 3368 8979
      3362 8979 3353 8988 3338 9045 3359 9045
      3372 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 248DEG 16KT 3351 9034

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

86