Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
214 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 911 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

There are chances for thunderstorms this afternoon into this
evening. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging
winds and locally heavy rain the primary threats. It will be hot
and humid otherwise through Friday, with the next chance for
showers and storms returning late Friday into Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Excellent moisture transport within 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
at 925-850 mb has allowed 2" pwat air and low 70's sfc dewpoints
to overspread. This is occuring in advance of a potent shortwave
and sfc reflection tracking east through central lower MI into the
early evening. A ~40 kt 7-5H jet will undercut the wave providing
30-35 knots of effective deep shear. This moisture/instability
and forcing will keep potentially severe convection in the
forecast this afternoon into this evening.

A leading MCS and associated bowing segment, over far ne IN/far nw OH
and sc MI as of 18z, will continue east through areas mainly
north of US 6, exiting these areas by 20z. Damaging winds will
remain the primary concern with this feature

The coverage and intensity of a second round of storms by the late
afternoon and evening will rely on how well the thermal environment
recovers. Shear profiles and overall large scale support do improve
by this time, with near 70F dewpoints and decent mid level lapse
rates favoring a relatively quick recovery in between MCV's. The
smaller scale feature to watch for this period is a convective
cluster over se WI/Lake MI. Orientation of the warm front and
shear vectors favor an eastward track into central and southern
MI, with a trailing outflow and/or composite outflows being the
focus for additional convective development locally. All hazards
(including hydro) are on the table if/where any supercells or well
organized multicell clusters (bowing segments) materialize.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Friday will be another hot and humid day with many locations
experiencing 100+ peak PM heat indices. This humid and unstable
airmass will likely prime the area for a round of convection later
Friday into Friday night as the next frontal boundary and upper
level impulse drops through in west-northwest flow aloft.
Precipitable water values near 2 inches and potential training
suggests a localized flooding threat, though severe weather cannot
be ruled out. A trend toward drier and less humid/hot continue
are then expected to follow into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Ceilings and visibility will vary through the afternoon as the
cluster of thunderstorms that moved southeast of Lake Michigan
move eastward this afternoon, with the line of showers and
thunderstorms extending south from Elkhart and Lagrange counties
south through Huntington county to move east at 30 kts. A second
round of convection is possible although models show differences
with the evolution that would affect areas mainly north of Highway
30. Beyond 05Z VFR conditions expected with patchy areas of fog
possible near daybreak.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday to midnight EDT
     /11 PM CDT/ Friday night for INZ005>009-103-104-203-204.

     Heat Advisory until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Friday night for
     INZ012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.

MI...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Friday night
     for MIZ078>081-177-277.

OH...Heat Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Friday night
     for OHZ001-002-004-005.

     Heat Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for OHZ015-016-024-
     025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Keck

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