Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
209 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
early this evening, mainly across northeast Indiana, south-central
Michigan, and northwest Ohio. Cool, breezy, and showery weather
conditions will then follow tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Severe event on target with all hazards (hail/wind/tornado) in play
as initial discrete convection has already developed into northwest
IN and sw MI. This activity will grow upscale, eventually congealing
into multicellular line segments once reaching the I-69 corridor and
points east. A Tornado Watch has been issued for the entire
forecast around through 00z.

Steepening lapse rates, incoming lift/cooling aloft on the leading
edge of an upper low approaching southern WI, and good pre-frontal
moisture return has pushed MLCAPE values up around 2000 j/kg in a
narrow plume immediately in advance of the system cold front.
Effective deep layer shear generally ranging from 20-30 knots north
to 30-40 knots south, which when combined with the relatively steep
lapse rates should support sustained/robust convection. Hail and
wind look to be the primary threats initially with discrete
convection, with wind and isolated tornadoes where any organization
takes place given strong 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes within
strengthening 850 mb sw flow. This is conjunction with some subtle
backing of the low level wind field could provide enough low level
hodo curvature for a tornado or two ... highest probs from I-69 east
into northwest OH. The bulk of the severe activity should clear the
forecast area to the east by around 23-00z.

Mostly cloudy skies, blustery northwesterly winds, cooler temps and
scattered rain showers will become the wx story later tonight into
Monday under deep/moist cyclonic flow. The greatest coverage of
showers is expected late morning and afternoon tomorrow given some
diurnal support on the southern periphery of the lower MI centered
low and cool pocket aloft. A few embedded storms can also not be
ruled out during this time if sfc temps can recover into the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

The stacked low will migrate east toward the eastern Great Lakes
into Tuesday allowing drier air to filter in. The result should be
lesser rain shower chances and coverage, though northerly winds will
remain on the breezy side and highs will struggle to reach the upper
60s to mid 70s.

A transition to a more common summer pattern will emerge Wednesday
through Friday with more of a quasi-zonal flow regime taking shape
on the northern fringe of a south-central CONUS upper ridge.
Wednesday and Thursday appear to be dry/warmer days with sfc ridging
in control and any convective activity well west-southwest near a
developing frontal zone. This frontal zone and another incoming
upper trough cresting the aformentioned upper ridge then brings
periodic shower/storm chances back into the forecast Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Another round of storms will move through with a cold frontal
passage this afternoon. Storms have developed over northwest IL
and are moving east to northeastward and will likely begin
affecting KSBN around 19-20z period but then move east of the
terminal by 21z Sun. There is a bit more uncertainty to the exact
evolution and initiation further eastward however latest HRRR
guidance has a linear convective feature moving into the KFWA
vicinity around 21z. Strong gusty winds and hail will be possible
with these storms, some look to become severe. Storms should exit
the area after 23z Sun. Scattered showers behind the frontal
boundary with lowering cigs with MVFR conditions after 06z Mon
for KSBN and around 07z for KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-104-116-203-204-216-
MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-261815-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Eastern St. Joseph IN-
Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-
Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 /112 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023/

...TORNADO WATCH 374 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is needed this afternoon.

INZ103-MIZ177-277-261815-
Northern La Porte-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 /112 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023/

...TORNADO WATCH 374 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Hazardous swimming conditions are possible on Lake Michigan beaches
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Dangerous swimming conditions are expected on Lake Michigan beaches
late Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters activation is needed this afternoon.

LMZ043-046-261815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
212 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 374 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected again late Monday
through early Wednesday.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
325 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 W Rochester           41.05N 86.27W
06/25/2023  M62 MPH          Fulton             IN   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     Hail             2 E Knox                41.29N 86.58W
06/25/2023  M1.75 inch       Starke             IN   Trained Spotter

&&

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
330 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Hail             3 NE Knox               41.32N 86.58W
06/25/2023  M2.00 inch       Starke             IN   Public

            Reported by Not Trained Spotter.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
331 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     Hail             3 NW Twin Lakes         41.33N 86.40W
06/25/2023  E1.00 inch       Marshall           IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
343 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Hail             Akron                   41.04N 86.02W
06/25/2023  M1.00 inch       Fulton             IN   Public

&&

MJ