Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
523 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 523 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Severe threat continues across the southeast forecast area and far
east central areas. Although some CIN is present, storms remain
potent in the aforementioned areas with plentiful instability
continuing. Some isolated cells continue to develop a bit behind the
line as well and will watch these for potential hail. Bulk of storms
will be out of the area by 630 to 700 PM.

Behind the thunderstorms, clearing and drier air moving in has
allowed good mixing. Winds will gust into the 35 to perhaps 45 mph
range and temperatures will warm back into the 90s some areas.
(Lawrenceville, IL reported 101 degrees but that is an outlier).

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

* Strong to severe storms will continue this afternoon
* Chances for rain return mainly on Monday

For the details about the severe storms this afternoon, please see
the mesoscale discussions.

Tonight...

Much of if not all of the convection will be east of the area by
00Z. Will keep some low PoPs in the east and southeast early tonight
to cover stragglers.

Some additional showers may develop later this evening into the
overnight across mainly the northern forecast area in wrap around
forcing from the system. Will have some low PoPs there.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

Monday...

An upper level low near eastern Lower Michigan will swing a trough
through the area on Monday. Enough moisture will remain with the
system to generate scattered to numerous showers, mainly in the
afternoon when some instability builds. Highest PoPs will be in the
northeast, closest to the upper low.

Some thunder will be possible with the instability, but severe
storms are not expected.

Highs will be in the 70s northeast where more clouds will be to the
middle 80s southeast with more sun.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Monday night into Tuesday...

The upper level low to the northeast will continue to influence the
northeast portions of central Indiana with chances for rain
continuing at times. Temperatures in these areas will remain cooler
than average. To the southwest, less influence from the upper low
will bring fewer clouds and temperatures in the 80s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...

Surface high pressure will provide dry conditions during this
period. Temperatures will be near normal to a bit below normal in
the northeast.

Wednesday night through Friday...

An upper ridge will attempt to move east and influence the area, but
the axis will remain well west. This will put us on the edge and
allow any energy moving around the edge to perhaps bring some
scattered convection. Will have some low PoPs to account for these.

Temperatures will warm as the ridge gets closer, with highs warming
into the middle 80s to middle 90s by Friday, with warmest
temperatures in the southwest closest to the ridge's influence.

Friday night onward...

An upper low to the north of the area will influence the area along
with a low pressure system. Some timing questions remain, so will
just go with chance PoPs through this period. Temperatures will
remain warm.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Impacts:

* Convection developing shortly after 18Z with greatest impacts late
  this afternoon at KBMG and KIND

* Strongest storms may produce brief wind gusts to 50kts

* Dry after 22Z at all terminals

* Non thunderstorm wind gusts up to 25kts through early evening

* MVFR ceilings possible Monday morning

Discussion:

The region remains in a lull at the moment as the atmosphere
organizes for expected robust convective development to initiate
somewhere between 18-19Z ahead of an approaching boundary over
eastern Illinois. KHUF and very possibly KLAF will not be impacted
as convection likely fires east of those terminals. For KBMG and
KIND though...storms will impact between 19-22Z with the potential
for brief damaging wind gusts...large hail and very heavy rainfall.
With the highest confidence in impacts at KIND...will maintain a
tempo group and adjust as needed. Outside of any storms...southwest
winds will continue to gust to around 25kts at times...gradually
transitioning to westerly behind the boundary this evening before
diminishing.

For the overnight into Monday...skies will largely clear tonight
before expansion of MVFR stratocu towards daybreak as the cold pool
associated with the upper low approaches. Winds will become gusty
again Monday from the west with the potential for a few showers by
later in the afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale...50
Short Term...50
Long Term...50
Aviation...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ021-029>031-036>042-044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-261930-
Carroll-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Montgomery-Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-
Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-
Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-
Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-
Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Lafayette, West Lafayette,
Frankfort, Kokomo, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton,
Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester,
Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale,
Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis,
Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport,
Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville,
Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton,
Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

A broken line of thunderstorms will move east across the area this
afternoon into early evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the main severe threats. A few tornadoes are possible as well. Severe
storms should be east of the area by 800 PM.

Storm motion will be from the west 30 to 40 mph.

Temperatures prior to the storms will warm into the lower and mid 90s
in much of the area with heat indices peaking close to 100 degrees in
some locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through Tuesday and again
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Lightning and brief heavy rain
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed this afternoon and early evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ028-035-043-261930-
Warren-Fountain-Vermillion-
Including the cities of Williamsport, West Lebanon, Attica,
Covington, Veedersburg, Clinton, and Fairview Park
328 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

A few thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon. Severe storms are
no longer expected, but any storm will be capable of producing gusty
winds, hail, and heavy rain.

Storm motion will be from the west 30 to 40 mph.

Warm and humid conditions will persist this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times through Tuesday and again
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Lightning and brief heavy rain
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
519 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Hail             1 WNW Spurgeons Corner  39.07N 86.16W
06/25/2023  E0.75 inch       Brown              IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

ELB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
535 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 ENE Waverly           39.57N 86.21W
06/25/2023                   Johnson            IN   Public

            Multiple public reports of damage to
            structures and heavily damaged roofs off
            Stones Crossing Road in the Kensington Grove
            Neighborhood. Time estimated via radar. *TOR
            POSSIBLE*.

&&

JM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
544 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Tornado          3 WNW New Whiteland     39.58N 86.16W
06/25/2023                   Johnson            IN   Public

            Multiple videos sent in on social media of a
            tornado on the ground near Stones Crossing
            Road and State Road 135. Time estimated via
            radar.

&&

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
550 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ048-055>057-252215-
Rush IN-Johnson IN-Shelby IN-Hancock IN-
550 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Shelby,
southeastern Hancock, Rush and east central Johnson Counties through
615 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Rushville to near
Franklin. Movement was east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Rushville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 90 and 94.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 105 and 119.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central and
east central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3950 8530 3947 8616 3974 8573 3979 8545
      3979 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 260DEG 52KT 3971 8558 3950 8599

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Updike

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
559 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NNW Bargersville      39.57N 86.20W
06/25/2023                   Johnson            IN   Public

            Photos of trees down and roof damage to
            homes in neighborhood south of Center Grove
            HS near intersection of Morgantown and
            Travis Rds. Time estimated via radar. *TOR
            POSSIBLE*.

&&

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
621 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ071-072-252245-
Jackson IN-Jennings IN-
621 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Jackson and
southwestern Jennings Counties through 645 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brownstown, or 11 miles southwest of Seymour, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Seymour around 635 PM EDT.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 37 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for south central
and southeastern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 8591 3875 8591 3876 8596 3875 8598
      3877 8598 3876 8603 3878 8609 3876 8614
      3878 8618 3887 8621 3898 8553 3888 8554
      3888 8557 3885 8557 3885 8561 3882 8561
      3882 8570 3883 8572 3881 8579 3873 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 260DEG 49KT 3884 8605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Updike