Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
151 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

.Short Term...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

* MCS expected with impacts to Indiana between 3PM and 7PM
* Damaging winds likely, especially between an area SW of Terre
  Haute to Bloomington
* Less confidence in severe threat further northeast

Rest of Today.

A messy thunderstorm forecast will be in place for the next several
days beginning with forecasting the ongoing MCS across central
Illinois. Current factors for how this will impact central Indiana
include a remnant storm environment over SW central Indiana along
with a outflow boundary over central IL. Both of these may mitigate
the overall threat over central Indiana and focus it further along a
line from Terre Haute to Bloomington although most if not all of
central Indiana will see convection.

16Z ACARs sounding over Indy shows a cooling 850-500mb layer,
matching model soundings which is steepening the lapse rates within
that layer. Currently expect that by thunderstorm arrival the 850-
500mb environment will be similar to the ILX sounding at 16z where
lapse rates were near 8 C/km.

Elevated instability will be easy to achieve by late afternoon, but
surface instability is a bit more uncertain. Northern central
Indiana has seen some recovery with temperatures now in the 80s
where sunshine has been more abundant whereas areas to the south and
west remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Model guidance is suggesting a more eastward propagation speed,
which is possible due to current MCV and resulting RIJ in the
ongoing MCS over W. IL. However, better surface instability and
theta-e SW of the aforementioned boundary could lead to more robust
convective growth on the southern flank leading to a more south of
east propagation for the more intense portions of the complex even
while maintaining further to the northeast. A well developed cold
pool will be enough to counterbalance the limiting factors but may
be enough to keep things subsevere to only slightly severe outside
of far SW Indiana.

Given MUCAPE and steep mid level lapse rates, organized RIJs could
lead to wind gusts up to 80MPH in the worst case scenario in which
the complex remains completely surface based. Isolated large hail is
also possible in strongest updrafts. With narrow bow echos are steep
wind gradients along the RIJ, weak spin-ups, especially in the
bookend vortex regions, are possible.

Tonight.

Quiet conditions are currently expected for the overnight hours, but
much of that will be dependent on how conditions evolve today. The
LLJ will remain strong across the area through the overnight hours
which may be able to initiate some additional elevated thunderstorms
across the southeastern counties, but that remains a low and
conditional threat. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy with
mild overnight lows near 70.  Patchy fog is possible near daybreak,
especially if widespread rain occurs across the forecast area.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the next three days

- Hot and Humid through Long Term

Friday through Sunday night...

Tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday will have multiple rounds of
thunderstorms within the Ohio Valley, but confidence in timing and
location is currently low. A massive heat dome currently exists over
the Southern Plains, depicted by 2 standard deviation anomalous
500mb heights. This has pushed eastward over the last several days
through west to east 700-500mb jet streams, leading to a large theta-
e gradient from IA to KY (including IN). This area is typically
known as "the ring of fire" this time of year, due to its highly
advantageous thermodynamics for convective initiation and growth,
and portions of central Indiana will see the full brunt of this by
the end of the weekend.

As talked about in the short term, the first convective system will
pass through today, and lingering boundary could produce
thunderstorms overnight depending how overworked the atmosphere is
from the first round. The impacts of this system will also lead to
where thunderstorms will initiate tomorrow. As of right now, it looks
like subsidence in the backside of an MCV could limit thunderstorm
development late tonight into early tomorrow, aiding in
destabilization prior to diurnal initiation tomorrow. If thats the
case and no thunderstorms occur prior to noon tomorrow, a
substantial instability and theta-e gradient will once again resolve
over central Indiana tomorrow afternoon. This should aid in MCS
organization tomorrow afternoon, with a ESE progression into central
Indiana. Once again significant severe winds, large hail and
isolated tornadoes will be possible if an organized MCS does indeed
form tomorrow afternoon. Best idea of timing would be between 2PM
and 7PM EDT.

Similar conditions will be present Saturday with the substantial
instability gradient once again to our W/S. Uncertainty in timing
increases for Saturday though with multiple potential scenarios
depending on prior day convection. The severe threat could increase
depending on atmospheric evolution into Saturday, but for now a broad
severe threat with high uncertainty remains.

Sunday could see another threat with a general late afternoon to
evening timeframe. Confidence in timing is a little greater for
Sunday as the lifting mechanism looks to be more on the synoptic
scale as a shortwave moves through. There are still many
uncertainties with severity, but a general risk of damaging winds and
large hail is likely.

Monday through Wednesday...

Less confidence in thunderstorm chances next week as broad high
pressure over the area along with weak pressure gradient suggests
any activity will be less organized. With that in mind, think there
will be enough sunshine to support very warm temperatures in the
lower 90s over southwestern sections at least, but consistent steep
lapse rates and therefor instability could lead to daily chances for
rain and thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Impacts:

- MVFR vsbys due to smoke ending by 20Z
- Brief MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs this afternoon due to TSRA
- MVFR vsbys due to FG possible between 10Z and 13Z.

Discussion:

Vsbys continue to improve with the wildfire smoke clearing out as
southerly winds help to push things back to the north. A conditional
severe weather threat is in place this afternoon with highest
confidence at BMG and HUF. If storms impact, brief gusty to
significantly gusty winds are likely with vsby restrictions. Outside
of that, winds will be southerly at 8-12kts through the period.
Patchy fog is expected in spots late tonight, especially if
widespread rain occurs across central Indiana.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short Term...White/Updike
Long Term...Updike
Aviation...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

INZ021-028>031-035>039-043>047-051>056-060>064-067>072-301915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Vigo-Clay-
Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-
Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville,
Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Sullivan, Carlisle,
Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the area this
afternoon. Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy
rain are threats from these storms.

Chances for thunderstorms will continue tonight, but odds for severe
weather are lower with these.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times Friday onward. Severe
thunderstorms are possible Friday through Saturday night. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Flooding will also be possible with repeated
rounds of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is needed this afternoon and may be needed Friday
and Saturday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ040>042-048-049-057-065-301915-
Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Hancock-Henry-Rush-Decatur-
Including the cities of Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Greenfield, New Castle, Rushville,
and Greensburg
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected at times through
tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe with the potential for
damaging wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible at times Friday onward. Severe
thunderstorms are possible Friday through Saturday night. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes
cannot be ruled out. Flooding will also be possible with repeated
rounds of storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon through Saturday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
402 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE North Crows Nest  39.85N 86.15W
06/29/2023                   Marion             IN   Public

            Report from mPING: Trees uprooted or
            snapped.

&&

KH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
403 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Warren Park       39.77N 86.07W
06/29/2023                   Marion             IN   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken.

&&

KH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
405 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Fishers           39.99N 86.01W
06/29/2023                   Hamilton           IN   NWS Employee

            Estimated 60 mph squalls. Six inch diameter
            tree downed.

&&

KH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
406 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WNW Carmel            39.98N 86.16W
06/29/2023                   Hamilton           IN   Public

            Time estimated. Several medium sized tree
            limbs knocked down.

&&

KH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
408 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Plainfield        39.71N 86.41W
06/29/2023                   Hendricks          IN   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken.

&&

KH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
409 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW New Ross          40.01N 86.73W
06/29/2023                   Montgomery         IN   Trained Spotter

            Large branches down East of 74 on 200 S.

&&

KH