Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
346 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

A weak confluence zone is visible in the surface observations from
roughly Anderson to the west side of Indianapolis to near Terre
Haute. Convection has been most concentrated along this confluence
zone so far. South of this, a midlevel speed maxima is contributing
to slightly higher deep layer shear, capable of at least quasi-
organized convective cells. In general, radar trends have shown
disorganized multicell clusters with brief high reflectivity cores
aloft.

The environment should support sporadic instances of marginally
severe hail and wind. The wind threat may be comparatively less than
previous days owing to moist adiabatic profiles aloft, modest
midlevel lapse rates, and little opportunity for entrainment of dry
air. Storm motion should be east-northeasterly at 35-40 mph,
generally following the mean cloud-bearing flow.

We will watch trends for merging cold pools and upscale growth
resulting in short line segments that would have a higher potential
for wind damage. 0-3-km bulk shear values are sufficient to support
this evolution if cold pools mature. This evolution has not yet
occurred, but the potential for this will be monitored in the next
couple of hours.

Further north, some convection is occurring along and ahead of the
cold front, but is in a less sheared environment north of the
aforementioned midlevel speed maxima. Thus, storm motions will be
slower and cells will be less organized with shorter life spans. Any
severe potential north of I-70 would be brief and marginal at best.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

* Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and early this
  evening, especially south

Rest of This Afternoon...

See Mesoscale Updates for the latest.

The upper trough and cold front will work with the instability
building across central Indiana to produce numerous showers and
scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Some severe storms are
possible, mainly south given expected parameters.

Tonight...

Instability will weaken this evening diminishing the severe threat,
and coverage of convection will decrease with loss of instability.
However, with the upper trough and cold front in the area, some
rainfall will be around. Will keep higher chance to low likely PoPs
early this evening, diminishing to just dry or slight chance PoPs
overnight.

With the front and rain, low temperatures will be cooler than last
night's, with lows in the middle to upper 60s expected.

Monday...

The upper trough will still have some influence across the area on
Monday, especially east. Some instability will linger, but not
enough for any severe storms. Will go slight chance or chance PoPs
most areas Monday, with highest PoPs in the afternoon when what
instability there is is maximized.

Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Monday Night Through Tuesday.

Generally dry conditions are expected during the daytime hours on
Tuesday with mostly clear skies but by mid afternoon, diurnal
heating will create a very deep boundary layer with the top of the
PBL around 8000ft.  Winds through this layer will be near calm with
stronger winds up closer to 30kft.  A weak warm nose above the
boundary layer will limit shower or storm development but should
allow for a fairly dense cu field through the early evening hours.
The air above the PBL will also be very dry which further limits the
rain threat for any outdoor afternoon or evening activities.

Wednesday Through Friday.

Rain chances will then ramp up Wednesday into Thursday with the next
expected frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday.  The bulk of
the forcing with this system will be further north into Minnesota
where the core of the upper level trough is expected, but fairly
good surface and near surface convergence down into Indiana will be
more than enough for scattered to numerous thunderstorms.  Shear
looks fairly meager, but may be just enough to allow for an MCS but
confidence is low at this time.

Saturday and Sunday.

After the frontal passage, quieter weather then looks to set up for
the early weekend with much drier air again filling in behind the
front. Northerly flow will also help keep conditions near to below
normal Saturday.  The next system then will move through the Central
Plains Saturday night with potential impacts to Indiana on Sunday,
but current thoughts are the better chances for precipitation will
remain south of the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

Impacts:

* Scattered to numerous convection through early evening

* Wind gusts up to 20kt this afternoon

* MVFR and IFR ceilings returning late tonight

Discussion:

Convection is beginning to fire at the moment and will become more
widespread this afternoon into early evening. Will have predominant
or TEMPO mention at most sites at some point in this period. MVFR or
worse conditions will occur in storms.

Convection will decrease in coverage this evening and overnight as a
cold front passes, but MVFR and some IFR ceilings will build in
behind it. Improvement will occur during Monday morning.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale...BRB/Marcus
Short Term...50
Long Term...White
Aviation...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
311 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-031915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City,
Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma,
Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer,
Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg,
Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville,
Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals,
Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon
311 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Thunderstorms expected through the early evening hours with the
potential for large hail and damaging winds.

Storm motion will be from the southwest at around 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Storms will return Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night as a
frontal boundary moves through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports will be appreciated today and tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ070-071-022030-
Lawrence IN-Jackson IN-
350 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Lawrence
and northwestern Jackson Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bedford, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bedford around 405 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 8668 3893 8668 3899 8639 3899 8632
      3901 8632 3904 8614 3885 8615 3879 8667
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 253DEG 28KT 3887 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

White

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
400 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Monument Circle         39.77N 86.15W
07/02/2023  E65 MPH          Marion             IN   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
404 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW Mooresville        39.62N 86.38W
07/02/2023                   Morgan             IN   Public

            Four-inch diameter tree branch was blown off
            a tree just north of the high school. Street
            flooding on Indiana Street.

&&

BH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ053>056-061>063-022045-
Johnson IN-Brown IN-Owen IN-Morgan IN-Shelby IN-Greene IN-Monroe IN-
408 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Shelby,
northern Monroe, southern Morgan, Johnson, northwestern Brown,
southeastern Owen and northeastern Greene Counties through 445 PM
EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Greenwood to 7 miles
southwest of Spencer. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Greenwood and Franklin around 420 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Bloomington and
Shelbyville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 86 and 97.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 106 and 112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central, central, southwestern and west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 8578 3954 8578 3916 8650 3915 8700
      3956 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 264DEG 36KT 3956 8622 3920 8686

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

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