Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Warm and breezy conditions will continue tonight through tomorrow
ahead of an approaching frontal system. Isolated showers and
storms will continue this evening, but more wide spread showers
and thunderstorms will enter the region late tonight and then
overspread central Illinois during the day Thursday. Some of the
storms could be severe along the cold front. Much colder temperatures
arrive by the weekend, raising concerns for widespread frost. The
pattern then remains seasonably cool into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Isolated showers and storms developed developed on the nose of the
low level jet this morning and have been persistent into this
afternoon. Believe this will likely continue into the early
evening hours and then should dissipate around sunset. Then dry
weather is expected most of the night before remnants of a large
MCS that should develop in western IA tonight moves into west
central IL later tonight and into the rest of central IL during
the morning. Some of the CAMs diminish the storms during the
morning hours, leaving the area dry during the day. However, this
may not occur as other models have scattered showers and storms
moving through the CWA during the morning hours. There should be
a break between this first round and the next round that expected
to develop ahead of the front and move into central IL during the
afternoon and move across the region into the evening hours.
Currently there is the possibility that some of the storms could
be severe with the second wave, but the intensity of the severe
weather will depend on how much sunshine the area gets after the
first wave, allowing the airmass to recover and become very
unstable again. If this happens, the level of severity will likely
be higher than what is currently expected. Less airmass recovery
would mean lower intensity.

Warm conditions ahead of the front will continue as well, with
overnight lows around 60 and highs tomorrow in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

The cold front is expected to move through the area Thursday
evening and precip will continue as well until the front passes,
mainly in the east and southeast. The threat of some of the storms
being severe will continue into the evening as well. The front
will slow its eastward progress Thursday night into Friday and
this will allow showers and thunderstorms to continue in the
east and southeast Friday into Friday night. Precip will finally
diminish/end on Sat with dry weather following through the
weekend and into the first part of next week. This will lead to a
pattern change across the area and through the rest of the extended
period, which will be quite unsettled. Though there will be a
break in the precip for Monday, another trough/upper level system
will move into the area for the middle of the week and will bring
the return of precip to the area for Mon night through Wed.
Precip will showers and isolated storms at this time.

Temps will be well below normal through the extended period with
around freezing temps expected Sat night and Sun night. Frost is
not expected Sat night as winds should remain breezy enough keep
the airmass mixed enough to prevent frost. However, Sun night
winds will be lighter, leading to a better possibility of frost.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Line of scattered storms will move through PIA over the next hour,
but all other sites will not be affected. Most of the clouds will
also be affecting PIA, but BMI will see some lower clouds around
5kft and mid clouds around 10kft. SPI, DEC, CMI will also see
clouds around 12kft this afternoon, with all sites seeing high
cirrus clouds during the overnight hours. Currently expecting
scattered mid clouds tomorrow, but clouds should be on the
increase tomorrow late morning into the afternoon as precip moves
into the area, but this will be after end of current TAF forecast
period. Winds will be breezy through the 24hr period out of the
south. Expecting gusts up to 30kts this afternoon and then again
tomorrow.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Auten
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
339 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-201200-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
339 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

South winds will gust 30 to 35 mph early this evening and then
diminish, though still remain breezy at times. Difficult travel for
high profile vehicles will continue for a few more hours, especially
those traveling on west to east oriented roads.

Thunderstorms are possible late tonight, primarily in areas west of
I-55.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Southwest winds will gust 35-40 mph on Thursday. This could cause
difficult travel for high profile vehicles, especially those
traveling on west and east oriented roads.

Thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind
gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-201200-
De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-
Richland-Lawrence-
339 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

South winds will gust 30 to 35 mph early this evening and then
diminish, though still remain breezy at times. Difficult travel for
high profile vehicles will continue for a few more hours, especially
those traveling on west to east oriented roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Southwest winds will gust 35-40 mph on Thursday. This could cause
difficult travel for high profile vehicles, especially those
traveling on west and east oriented roads.

Thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind
gusts and hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1233 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             CUBA                    40.49N 90.19W
04/19/2023  M1.25 INCH       FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORT FROM SOCIAL
            MEDIA OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN
            CUBA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1241 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             4 WSW CANTON            40.54N 90.11W
04/19/2023  M1.50 INCH       FULTON             IL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL AT WEE-MA-TUK
            REPORTED ON FACEBOOK WITH PHOTO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             1 W CANTON              40.56N 90.05W
04/19/2023  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             IL   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW HAILSTONES
            THE SIZE OF QUARTERS REPORTED ON TWITTER
            WITH PHOTO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     HAIL             4 SSW TRIVOLI           40.64N 89.92W
04/19/2023  M0.25 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL AT SMITHFIELD AND STONE SCHOOL
            ROAD INTERSECTION.

&&

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