Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
300 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

A warm front has lifted north across central Illinois ushering in
a warm and unstable air mass. There will be a few rounds of
possible showers and storms across central Illinois this evening
through early Wednesday afternoon. Gusty southerly winds will keep
temperatures propped up tonight with lows generally in the 60s
across central Illinois. After a warm start to the day Wednesday,
temperatures will begin to fall back into the 50s behind a cold
front then will fall into the 30s Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

There will be multiple strong to severe thunderstorm chances this
afternoon through around midday Wednesday.

As of the 2pm observations this afternoon, a warm front is draped
from roughly Galesburg east-southeast across Bloomington to near
Danville and is expected to gradually lift north towards the IL/WI
state line by mid to late this evening. Temperatures in the 80s and
dew points in the mid 60s behind the front will contribute to
moderately strong instability within the warm sector through this
evening. Latest SPC Meso-analysis page indicates pockets of over
3000 J/kg MLCAPE centered near DBQ, but this is capped by a warm
nose of nearly 16C temps at 900mb per 12Z KILX raob. This capping
inversion is the primary limiting factor in the eastward extent
of any storm coverage this evening and there remains uncertainty
in how far east the cap will break. Convective allowing models
generally favor the cap holding within the ILX forecast area this
evening, though there have been some runs (ex: 14Z HRRR, 12Z
HiResFV3) that continue to bring the potential for storms as far
east as the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon into the
evening. Wherever storms end up, strong instability coupled with
55-65kt+ deep layer shear will support supercells. 0-1km SRH
increases from roughly 200 to 400 m2/s2 as you approach the warm
front which will support tornadoes, but storm motions oriented
perpendicular to the warm front/instability gradient will limit
residence time across the warm front.

While the activity this afternoon and evening will pose the greatest
severe threat, a couple additional lines of storms are possible
overnight into Wednesday morning that could also pose a severe
threat. Strong southerly winds overnight will keep the boundary
layer somewhat unstable overnight. CAMs suggest storms will become
linear ahead of a cold front across portions of MO/IA overnight and
spread east into Illinois late tonight. Another line of storms may
form over south central MO late this evening and track ENE along
portions of the I-70 corridor. While either of these two lines of
storms may lose some of their strength given the unfavorable diurnal
timing as they cross the Mississippi River late tonight, overall
instability/shear parameters suggest severe storms will still be
possible and will bear close watching. There may be a brief
uptick in storm intensity along the cold front Wednesday morning
as we start to see daytime heating. By around 21Z / 4 PM CDT
Wednesday, the cold front should be through the area ending the
precip chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Cold front will settle south across the Ohio River Valley by
Thursday morning and expansive ridging will be in place across the
central Great Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. The center of
high pressure will shift the upper Great Lakes Friday then
gradually shift to the lower lakes over the weekend. In general,
this will result in cooler but otherwise fair weather across
Central Illinois through the weekend. Expect lows in the 30s for
much of the area Thursday morning and again Friday morning with
highs in the 50s Thursday afternoon. A gradual warming trend will
occur Friday through the weekend as winds turn southerly behind
the ridge axis. A weak buckle in the upper flow will bring a small
chance for precip Sunday night into Monday, but strong upper
ridging will translate across the Great Plains early into the
middle of next week favoring warm and dry weather late in the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

A warm front will lift north across central Illinois today. Breezy
southeast winds and IFR conditions will be replaced by strong
south winds gusting near or in excess of 30 kt and VFR conditions.
Several clusters of storms are expected across the region this
afternoon through midday Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered
severe storms are possible near and west of PIA this afternoon
into this evening but are favored to stay west of the Illinois
River Valley. Another line of storms will lift from the St Louis
area overnight and will be near/south of SPI/DEC/CMI between 09Z
and 12Z. Yet another round of strong to severe storms is possible
Wednesday morning and early afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. Winds will turn NW behind the front and precip chances
will end.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ046-055>057-
062-063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Deubelbeiss
SHORT TERM...Deubelbeiss
LONG TERM...Deubelbeiss
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
313 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

ILZ027>030-036-040-052015-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Fulton-Schuyler-
313 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop west of the IL
River Valley between 6-9 PM this evening and again late tonight into
Wednesday morning. All severe threats are possible. Some of the
severe weather could be significant, with hail over 2 inches and
strong, long lived tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms may linger through Wednesday morning, but
will largely push east of the IL River Valley by daybreak.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6-9 PM this evening.

ILZ031-037-038-041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-052015-
Woodford-Tazewell-McLean-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-
Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-
Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
313 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across central
and southeast IL late tonight into Wednesday morning. All severe
threats are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The severe storm threat will continue into early Wednesday afternoon as
the cold front moves through the area. All severe hazards are
possible. A heightened threat for significant severe weather exists
over eastern IL where hail over 2 inches and strong, long lived
tornadoes are possible.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for counties east of I-57 from 7 am to
4 pm Wednesday. Southwest winds with gusts around 45 mph are
expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight, but may be
needed Wednesday morning.

NMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW METCALF           39.81N 87.84W
03/31/2023                   EDGAR              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT. TREES BROKEN AT THE BASE,
            AND A COUPLE BUILDINGS HAD ROOF DAMAGE
            STREWN ACROSS A COUPLE FARM FIELDS. LOCATED
            ALONG COUNTY ROAD 2300N NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION WITH 900E.

&&

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
610 PM CDT TUE APR 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             4 ESE RUSHVILLE         40.10N 90.49W
04/04/2023  M1.00 INCH       SCHUYLER           IL   COCORAHS

&&