Alert archive / Illinois / High Wind Warnings in 2023
High Wind Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL
NWS Lincoln, IL issued this high wind warning at Mar 3, 2023, 12:24 PM CST for 22 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 7 hr. 51 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 3, 2023, 12:24 PM CST (18:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 3, 2023, 6:56 PM CST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Lincoln, IL
All 22 counties
Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, McLean County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL
The radar
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 12:28 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 48 | Central Illinois Airpor, IL | AWOS STATION KBMI BLOOMINGTON ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 12:30 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 48 | Lane, IL | MESONET STATION DW4369 LANE. |
| Mar 3, 12:30 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 57 | 4 S Armstrong, IL | MESONET STATION CW7268 HOPE. |
| Mar 3, 12:30 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | 1 Sse Thomasboro, IL | MESONET STATION DVI04157 THOMASBORO. |
| Mar 3, 12:46 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Ese Urbana, IL | VIDEO OF POWER LINE DOWN AND ARCING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Mar 3, 12:50 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 Wnw Bloomington, IL | STREET LAMP BLOWN DOWN AT ALDI ON MAPLE HILL ROAD. |
| Mar 3, 12:55 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 47 | 5 N Longview, IL | MESONET STATION DVI02490 SIDNEY. |
| Mar 3, 12:55 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 47 | Rantoul Airport, IL | AWOS STATION KTIP RANTOUL ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 12:55 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 69 | Willard Airport, IL | ASOS STATION KCMI WILLARD ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 12:59 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 56 | Coles County Airport, IL | ASOS STATION KMTO COLES CO. MEM AP. |
| Mar 3, 1:00 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 E Decatur, IL | SMALL TREE BLOWN OVER BEHIND E ELDORADO ST NEAR MCDONALDS. PHOTO SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Mar 3, 1:05 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Se Champaign, IL | LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN IN HESSEL PARK. PICTURE SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Mar 3, 1:28 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 W Mount Zion, IL | LARGE TREE DOWN OVER E ELWIN RD NEAR MOUNT ZION. VIDEO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Mar 3, 1:30 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 S Urbana, IL | LARGE TREE SNAPPED AT THE BASE. PHOTO SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. |
| Mar 3, 1:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 49 | Rantoul Airport, IL | AWOS STATION KTIP RANTOUL ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 1:51 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 72 | Mattoon, IL | CHARLESTON MATTOON AIRPORT MEASURED 72 MPH NORTHEAST WIND GUST. |
| Mar 3, 2:10 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 1 Sw Champaign, IL | SEGMENT OF A WOODEN FENCE BLOWN DOWN. |
| Mar 3, 2:10 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 E Decatur, IL | PART OF STOP LIGHT KNOCKED DOWN. |
| Mar 3, 2:13 PM CST | FLOOD | 2 W Isabel, IL | REPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING; CROPLAND/YARD/BASEMENT FLOODING. |
| Mar 3, 2:15 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Bethany, IL | TREE DOWN ON GARAGE AND SHED BLOWN OVER. EXACT TIME OF DAMAGE UNCERTAIN. |
| Mar 3, 2:24 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | Mattoon, IL | CHARLESTON MATTOON AIRPORT NNE WIND GUST 68 MPH. |
| Mar 3, 2:33 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 68 | Champaign, IL | CHAMPAIGN AIRPORT HAD NNE WIND GUSTS 68 MPH. |
| Mar 3, 2:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Pana, IL | WHITE PINE TREE BLOWN OVER INTO PARKING LOT BY QIK N EZ NEAR HIGHWAY 51 FROM NORTH WIND GUST 51 MPH. |
| Mar 3, 2:49 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Se Forsyth, IL | REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN. |
| Mar 3, 2:50 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 49 | 2 Sse Urbana, IL | MESONET STATION FW0668 URBANA. |
| Mar 3, 2:57 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Nw Decatur, IL | LARGE SPRUCE TREE UPROOTED FROM 49 MPH NORTH WIND ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DECATUR. |
| Mar 3, 3:05 PM CST | SNOW 1.7 | 2 Nw Shirley, IL | SNOWFALL IN LAST TWO HOURS. |
| Mar 3, 3:06 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | Champaign, IL | CHAMPAIGN AIRPORT NORTH WIND GUST 60 MPH. |
| Mar 3, 3:15 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | Hindsboro, IL | MESONET STATION EW2893 HINDSBORO. |
| Mar 3, 3:30 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 2 N Homer, IL | LARGE CEDAR TREE BLOWN OVER ON SOUTH HOMER LAKE ROAD. TRUCK DIAMETER 2 FEET. |
| Mar 3, 3:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | 1 Sw Olney Noble Airpor, IL | AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP. |
| Mar 3, 3:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | Flora Municipal Airport, IL | AWOS STATION KFOA FLORA ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 3:40 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | Altamont, IL | NW WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH. |
| Mar 3, 3:40 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | Tuscola, IL | LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN BY STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS. |
| Mar 3, 3:44 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND DMG | 3 Ene Decatur, IL | REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN. |
| Mar 3, 4:05 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 50 | Danville, IL | ESTIMATED NORTH WIND GUST 50 MPH IN DANVILLE. |
| Mar 3, 4:10 PM CST | SNOW 2.2 | 2 E Bloomington, IL | SLUSHY ROADS ON EAST SIDE OF BLOOMINGTON. |
| Mar 3, 4:10 PM CST | SNOW 2.5 | 3 Ese Bloomington, IL | SLUSH COVERED ROADS ON EAST SOUTHEAST SIDE OF BLOOMINGTON. |
| Mar 3, 4:15 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 60 | Danville, IL | ESTIMATED NORTH WIND GUST 60 MPH. RAIN AND SLEET HAS TURNED TO SNOW. |
| Mar 3, 4:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | Mount Carmel Airport, IL | AWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 4:35 PM CST | NON-TSTM WND GST 45 | Robinson Municipal Airp, IL | AWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT. |
| Mar 3, 5:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 2.36 | Robinson, IL | RAINFALL TODAY. |
| Mar 3, 5:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 2.44 | 3 W Birds, IL | RAINFALL TODAY. |
| Mar 3, 5:44 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.84 | 1 Nw Mattoon, IL | |
| Mar 3, 5:50 PM CST | SNOW 2.2 | Capital Airport, IL | MEASURED 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW IN 2 HOURS FROM 2 TO 4 PM STATION ELEVATION: 590 FT. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.1 | 2 E Lincoln, IL | RAINFALL AT NWS LINCOLN SINCE 7 AM TODAY. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.15 | 2 E Bloomington, IL | RAINFALL SINCE 730 AM TODAY INCLUDING 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AFTERNOON. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.39 | Decatur Airport, IL | RAINFALL AT DECATUR AIRPORT SINCE 5 AM TODAY. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.48 | Coles County Airport, IL | RAINFALL SINCE 4 AM TODAY. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.59 | Champaign, IL | RAINFALL SINCE 5 AM TODAY AT CHAMPAIGN AIRPORT IN SAVOY. |
| Mar 3, 6:00 PM CST | HEAVY RAIN 1.66 | Springfield, IL | RAINFALL SINCE 5 AM TODAY AT CAPITOL AIRPORT IN SPRINGFIELD. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1689 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 62 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 109 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
432 WWUS73 KILX 031824 NPWILX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-040230- /O.UPG.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KILX.HW.W.0001.230303T1824Z-230304T0100Z/ McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian- Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark- Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville 1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...North to northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Illinois. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$ ILZ031-037-041-047>050-040100- /O.EXT.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/ Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan- Including the cities of Eureka, Pekin, Havana, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, and Jacksonville 1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 50 mph, becoming northwest through the afternoon. * WHERE...Woodford, Tazewell, McLean and Mason Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$ Deubelbeiss
2 follow-up statements
531 WWUS73 KILX 032333 NPWILX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ILZ038-042>044-051>054-061-040045- /O.CAN.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/ McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie- Shelby- Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton, Monticello, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, and Shelbyville 533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... Winds have decreased across the area, allowing the headline to be cancelled. $$ ILZ031-037-041-047>050-040045- /O.CAN.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/ Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan- Including the cities of Eureka, Pekin, Havana, Beardstown, Petersburg, Winchester, and Jacksonville 533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Winds have decreased across the area, allowing the headline to be cancelled. $$ ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-040100- /O.CON.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/ Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Cumberland-Clark- Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- Including the cities of Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville 533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...North winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Illinois. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. && $$
768 WWUS73 KILX 040056 NPWILX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 656 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-040200- /O.CAN.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/ Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Cumberland-Clark- Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- Including the cities of Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville 656 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED... Winds have diminished across the area, so the High Wind Warning has been cancelled. Northwest winds will gust near 30 mph this evening. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Mar 3, 11:36 AM CST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 11:36 AM CST, 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1136 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 An intense storm system will bring heavy rain to central Illinois through this afternoon, when a transition to wet snow is expected for a portion of the area. Northeast winds will intensify late this morning and remain gusty as they turn to northwesterly during the afternoon. Dry weather will return for the weekend with temperatures warming through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 941 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Late this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a dry slot punching north into southern Illinois while a compact impulse is in place near the bootheel of Missouri. This wave will be the primary area to watch as we head into the afternoon for a severe threat in SE Illinois. Latest RAP continues to hint at around 300-500 J/kg clipping the far southeastern counties (Lawrence, Richland, Crawford) superimposed by 0-3km shear in excess of 50kt. This will support a wind threat and possibly a low end tornado threat depending on storm organization. Further north, latest RAP guidance indicates we are on track for strong frontogenesis to form near the I-57 corridor by around midday and very slowly lift northeast through the afternoon. Dynamic cooling within this stronger mesoscale forcing will allow rain to change to snow with minor accumulations still expected in counties with the Winter Weather Advisory (Mclean through Vermilion). Precip should move out of the area by 6pm to 9pm this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 At 330 AM, a plume of moisture was evident streaming northward ahead of a developing surface low which WPC analyzed across central Arkansas. Beneath the left exit region of a 120kt+ 500mb jet, this feature will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeastward towards central Illinois over the next several hours - going from around 990mb to roughly 975mb in the span of around 10 hours according to the 06z RAP. Accordingly, the air mass is moistening from the south as the LLJ advects Gulf moisture northward. SGF's sounding had a PWAT of 1.05" at 00z, whereas ours was 0.31" at the same time; undoubtedly, we've moistened since then, and will continue to throughout the morning as the low draws nearer. This multifaceted system will bring a myriad of weather conditions when it arrives later this morning, including the following potential threats: * Heavy rain: WPC's probabilistic QPF guidance suggests a 95% chance for more than 1" of rain across areas mainly SE of I-55 in southeast/south central Illinois for the 24 hr period ending at 06z Sat. South of I-70, the chance for greater than 2" (3") of QPF is upwards of 60 (20%). HREF's ensemble mean (max) suggests nearly 3" (6") of rain falling in our southeast counties as well. Given the signal in the guidance, and the upstream reports of heavy rainfall/flash flooding, WPC has expanded the moderate risk for excessive rainfall to clip our southeastern CWA and their slight risk to affect those southeast of I-57. Training convective activity through the afternoon will bear close watching for these areas. For more information, see the hydrology section of this discussion. * Severe weather: The surface low track has shifted southeast in the past couple model iterations, which would seem to inhibit our severe potential somewhat. Nonetheless, the far southeast corner of our CWA will need close monitoring late morning through early afternoon as strong synoptic uplift near the surface low coincides with elevated instability and an intense kinematic profile featuring curved hodographs and 0-6km bulk shear upwards of 60kt. The HRRR and NAMNest have severe convection narrowly missing us, but the threat is certainly nonzero. SPC has maintained a slight risk in our extreme southeast and marginal northwestward nearly to I-55. * Winter weather: HREF mean suggests FGEN values upwards of 150 k/m/1e10s in our eastern half during the early to mid afternoon time frame, which should support a snow band's development on the northwest side of an intense deformation band as 850mb temps drop to sub 0C behind the surface low with deformation of the 0C isotherm owing to wet bulbing of the column by intense precip. The probability for greater than 1"/hr snowfall from HREF is 60+% in extreme north Vermilion and Champaign counties points northeast during the mid-late afternoon, quickly tapering to around 10% for most of the rest of the area. Important distinction here though: the CAMs have difference timing of the event too, which could be artificially lowering the probabilities a bit across the remainder of the area. HREF ensemble mean has 24 hr snowfall totals exceeding 1" NE of a Peoria to Decatur to Paris line (same location that experimental probabilistic WSSI has a 5+% chance for extreme impacts, mainly driven by snow load or potential infrastructure impacts from the weight of snow), and exceeding 2" across McLean, Woodford, Champaign, and Vermilion counties...Greater than 4" across extreme northern Champaign and Vermilion counties. However, given the somewhat warm ground not all of the snow is expected to stick; the CAMs are picking up on this, with their forecast snowfall (6" or more in spots) quite a bit higher than their forecast snow accumulation, which is generally less than 3" even where the heaviest snow is expected to fall. Concern exists for reduced visibilities amidst strong winds and heavy snowfall. WSSI suggests concern over snow loading resulting from heavy wet snow combined with strong winds. In addition, HREF suggests 30+% probs for sub 1/2 mile vis and wind speed > 30 mph across our CWA from Christian and Shelby counties points northeast. We'll need to monitor this closely for a possible upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon, though at this time it appears the Advisory will suffice. * High winds: The deterministic GFS suggests that at 21z (3 PM CST) the pressure difference between LWV and BMI - a distance of only ~140 miles - will be around 14mb, implying a gradient of roughly 0.1mb/mi which is quite remarkable. The HREF ensemble min, mean, and max, respectively, suggest peak gusts will reach 40, 50-55, and 70mph across much of the CWA, with the strongest winds along the I-72 corridor. This is a lot of spread given it's day 1 of the forecast, but it seems most of this uncertainty is in mixing potential. Depending on which model you use, forecast soundings suggest that the low level inversion is high enough to allow for max gusts to somewhere between 45 and 65 kt. The HRRR and NAMNest have been somewhat consistent at suggesting the 50-60kt winds at around 900mb will reach the surface during the late morning through mid afternoon timeframe, though this will be conditional on whether we can get heavy enough showers or a break in clouds to either force mixing via evaporational cooling or allow it through surface heating (the latter seems unlikely). The Wind Advisory was expanded and wording intensified to account for this concern, though the confidence for a High Wind Warning just is not there yet. Once we put this system behind us tonight, we'll be dry and cool for the first part of the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Saturday is looking seasonable with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and we may even get some breaks of sun during the afternoon, mainly south of I-72. By Sunday, we'll start to warm up with the approach of the next system which will bring a warm front across the Midwest and another opportunity for rain on Monday, which at this time is the warmest day in the forecast period. NBM suggests a 90% chance for highs over 60F on Monday in Lincoln, and even yields an 80% chance for highs in the 70s in Lawrenceville. Uncertainty increases later in the forecast period, though none of the deterministic models are suggesting any impactful storm systems in our neck of the woods for whatever that's worth. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Widespread rain will continue through the remainder of the daylight hours today, switching over to snow for some by mid afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceiling and visby reductions will be common through this evening, though occasional drops to IFR will be possible with any heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should rapidly improve tonight with visibilities and ceilings lifting back into VFR category before 06Z areawide. Strong northeast winds with gusts upwards of 45 kts are expected through this afternoon, slowly lessening by this evening. Winds should become light overnight into Saturday morning. In fact, some guidance suggests shallow ground fog developing Saturday morning, though confidence is quite low on this actually occurring. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 414 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 Precipitation amounts with the upcoming storm system today look to be around 2 inches or higher from Effingham to Paris southeastward, ranging as high as 3 to 4 inches. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall has been depicted by WPC in this area, and this matches well with a Flood Watch already in effect until this evening. The bulk of precipitation looks to fall between 6 AM and noon, and be nearly over with by 6 pm. Runoff will continue to accumulate in larger basins through Friday night, and rises look to continue through Saturday. A flood warning is already in effect at Clay City on the Little Wabash River, as well as on portions of the Wabash River. Elsewhere, precipitation amounts will taper off to the northwest, with a still significant inch plus expected along the I-55 corridor. Rises are likely on the Sangamon River that could produce flood stage levels, especially on the upper and lower ends of the river basin. On the Illinois River, impacts from the heavier rain over the last week in northern Illinois are working their way down, and there is a good chance of at least minor flooding from Peoria upstream early next week. Downstream, more of the impacts from the upcoming system come into play, and moderate flooding is expected to develop at Havana and Beardstown toward Tuesday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ031-037-038- 041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ038- 043>046. Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ057-063-067-068- 071>073. && UPDATE...Deubelbeiss SYNOPSIS...Bumgardner SHORT TERM...Bumgardner LONG TERM...Bumgardner AVIATION...NMA HYDROLOGY...37
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 11:34 AM CST, 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 ILZ027>030-036-040-041745- Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Fulton-Schuyler- 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Windy conditions are expected, however wind gusts are expected to remain below 45 mph. Rain may mix with or change to snow this afternoon, but accumulations should be minimal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. River levels on the Illinois River will rise, with minor flooding ongoing from Havana downstream. At these locations, river levels may approach moderate flood stage by late next week. Minor flooding is also possible from Peoria upstream by late next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ031-037-041-042-047>057-061>063-066-041745- Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon- Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark- Effingham- 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong northeast winds are expected today, and could gust over 55 mph especially near the I-72 corridor this afternoon. Tree damage and power outages are possible beyond what would normally be expected with these wind speeds due to the unusual wind direction. Rain will continue through early evening, with total amounts of one to two inches near the I-55 corridor, and two to three inches near and east of I-57. Rain may mix with or change to snow this afternoon, but accumulations should be minimal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor flooding possible on the west end of the Sangamon River by Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ038-043>046-041745- McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion- 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east central Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Rain is expected to mix with or change over to snow this afternoon. Slushy accumulations of a couple inches are possible. In addition, rainfall over an inch is possible. Strong northeast winds are expected today, and could gust over 55 mph this afternoon. Tree damage and power outages are possible beyond what would normally be expected with these wind speeds due to the unusual wind direction and sticky wet snow. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor flooding is likely on the east end of the Sangamon River by late Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. ILZ067-068-071>073-041745- Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence- 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Heavy rain of 2 to 4 inches is possible today, which will cause further river rises and areas of flooding. In addition, scattered thunderstorms are expected, a few of which may be strong to severe. Damaging winds would be the most likely concern with any storms. Even outside of the storms, wind gusts over 50 mph from the northeast are possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Minor flooding on area rivers is likely to continue this weekend and into next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through 2 PM. Erwin
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 3, 7:00 AM CST, 5 hours 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
700 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE CLAY CITY 38.61N 88.31W
03/03/2023 M1.00 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CLYI2 CLAY CITY 6
SSE.
0635 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023 M0.99 INCH RICHLAND IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.
&&Local storm report, Mar 3, 9:38 AM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
938 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW LAWRENCEVILLE 38.72N 87.72W
03/03/2023 M1.72 INCH LAWRENCE IL CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BRPI2 1.7 W
LAWRENCEVILLE.
0915 AM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT 38.61N 87.73W
03/03/2023 M1.61 INCH LAWRENCE IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT.
0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023 M1.52 INCH RICHLAND IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE OLNEY 38.75N 88.07W
03/03/2023 M1.40 INCH RICHLAND IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-6 OLNEY 1.5 NE.
0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.95W
03/03/2023 M1.34 INCH MCLEAN IL MESONET
MESONET STATION AU670 HEYWORTH.
0915 AM HEAVY RAIN ROBINSON MUNICIPAL AIRP 39.01N 87.65W
03/03/2023 M1.05 INCH CRAWFORD IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT.
&&Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:14 PM CST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S MORTON 40.58N 89.46W
03/03/2023 M1.00 INCH TAZEWELL IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:15 PM CST, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1215 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1148 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW DECATUR AIRPORT 39.83N 88.87W
03/03/2023 M67 MPH MACON IL ASOS
ASOS STATION KDEC DECATUR ARPT.
1149 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE FARMINGDALE 39.80N 89.75W
03/03/2023 M63 MPH SANGAMON IL MESONET
MESONET STATION DW9022 PLAINFIELD.
1144 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPITAL AIRPORT 39.85N 89.68W
03/03/2023 M54 MPH SANGAMON IL ASOS
ASOS STATION KSPI SPFLD CAPITAL AP.
1147 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COLES COUNTY AIRPORT 39.47N 88.27W
03/03/2023 M54 MPH COLES IL ASOS
ASOS STATION KMTO COLES CO. MEM AP.
1045 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WILLARD AIRPORT 40.03N 88.28W
03/03/2023 M51 MPH CHAMPAIGN IL ASOS
ASOS STATION KCMI WILLARD ARPT.
1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE ASHLAND 39.92N 89.99W
03/03/2023 M51 MPH MENARD IL MESONET
MESONET STATION EW7786 TALLULA.
1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT 39.54N 89.33W
03/03/2023 M51 MPH CHRISTIAN IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KTAZ TAYLORVILLE ARPT.
1049 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW ROYAL 40.16N 87.99W
03/03/2023 M45 MPH CHAMPAIGN IL MESONET
MESONET STATION UP806 3 SW ROYAL.
1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT 39.77N 90.24W
03/03/2023 M45 MPH MORGAN IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KIJX JACKSONVILLE ARPT.
1154 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AIRPOR 40.48N 88.91W
03/03/2023 M45 MPH MCLEAN IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KBMI BLOOMINGTON ARPT.
&&Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:16 PM CST, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1210 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW SPRINGFIELD 39.81N 89.67W
03/03/2023 SANGAMON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON THE 1300 BLOCK
OF WEST ENOS AVENUE IN SPRINGFIELD.
&&
BARNESLocal storm report, Mar 3, 12:22 PM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1222 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023 M1.98 INCH RICHLAND IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.
1110 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E OLNEY 38.73N 88.07W
03/03/2023 M1.95 INCH RICHLAND IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-3 OLNEY 0.7 E.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW NEWTON 38.98N 88.17W
03/03/2023 M1.93 INCH JASPER IL MESONET
MESONET STATION EW2373 NEWTON.
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT 38.61N 87.73W
03/03/2023 M1.85 INCH LAWRENCE IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT.
1201 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE NEWTON 38.98N 88.16W
03/03/2023 M1.81 INCH JASPER IL MESONET
MESONET STATION EW0638 NEWTON.
1205 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW KIRKSVILLE 39.60N 88.71W
03/03/2023 M1.73 INCH MOULTRIE IL MESONET
MESONET STATION FW6864 SULLIVAN.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E HEYWORTH 40.31N 88.95W
03/03/2023 M1.72 INCH MCLEAN IL MESONET
MESONET STATION AU670 HEYWORTH.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E DUNDAS 38.83N 88.06W
03/03/2023 M1.62 INCH RICHLAND IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-7 DUNDAS 1.4 E.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE MARSHALL 39.41N 87.68W
03/03/2023 M1.61 INCH CLARK IL MESONET
MESONET STATION AU010 MARSHALL.
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN EFFINGHAM COUNTY AIRPOR 39.07N 88.53W
03/03/2023 M1.49 INCH EFFINGHAM IL AWOS
AWOS STATION K1H2 EFFINGHAM ARPT.
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN ROBINSON MUNICIPAL AIRP 39.01N 87.65W
03/03/2023 M1.39 INCH CRAWFORD IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN TEUTOPOLIS 39.13N 88.48W
03/03/2023 M1.29 INCH EFFINGHAM IL MESONET
MESONET STATION FW1289 TEUTOPOLIS.
0945 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW VINCENNES UNIVERS 38.68N 87.54W
03/03/2023 M1.24 INCH LAWRENCE IL MESONET
MESONET STATION VCNI3 0.9 W VINCENNES
UNIVERSITY.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W ROBINSON 39.01N 87.78W
03/03/2023 M1.20 INCH CRAWFORD IL CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION RBSI2 2.0 W ROBINSON.
1155 AM HEAVY RAIN TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT 39.54N 89.33W
03/03/2023 M1.16 INCH CHRISTIAN IL AWOS
AWOS STATION KTAZ TAYLORVILLE ARPT.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SW DUNDAS 38.80N 88.12W
03/03/2023 M1.15 INCH RICHLAND IL MESONET
MESONET STATION FW1422 OLNEY.
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN HINDSBORO 39.69N 88.14W
03/03/2023 M1.12 INCH DOUGLAS IL MESONET
MESONET STATION EW2893 HINDSBORO.
1206 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW DANVILLE 40.17N 87.65W
03/03/2023 M1.10 INCH VERMILION IL MESONET
MESONET STATION CW9931 DANVILLE.
1138 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE SHUMWAY 39.15N 88.62W
03/03/2023 M1.00 INCH EFFINGHAM IL COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION IL-EF-32 EFFINGHAM 4.2 WNW.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 8:30 PM CST | Winter Weather Advisory | ILX | Champaign, DeWitt, McLean, Piatt, Vermilion | 22 hr |
| Mar 3, 9:11 AM CST | River Flood Warning | ILX | Piatt | 5 days |
| Mar 3, 9:29 AM CST | River Flood Warning | ILX | Lawrence | 7 days |
| Mar 3, 11:49 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Cass, DeWitt, Logan, McLean, Mason, Menard and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 3, 12:49 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Clay, Crawford, Effingham, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland | 3 hr |
Nearby
High Wind Warnings in Illinois, 2023Every high wind warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.