Alert archive / Illinois / High Wind Warnings in 2023

High Wind Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

March 3, 202322 counties in Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this high wind warning at Mar 3, 2023, 12:24 PM CST for 22 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 7 hr. 51 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 3, 2023, 12:24 PM CST (18:24 UTC)
Expired
Mar 3, 2023, 6:56 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL
All 22 counties

Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, McLean County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 3, 12:28 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 48Central Illinois Airpor, ILAWOS STATION KBMI BLOOMINGTON ARPT.
Mar 3, 12:30 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 48Lane, ILMESONET STATION DW4369 LANE.
Mar 3, 12:30 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 574 S Armstrong, ILMESONET STATION CW7268 HOPE.
Mar 3, 12:30 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 601 Sse Thomasboro, ILMESONET STATION DVI04157 THOMASBORO.
Mar 3, 12:46 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 Ese Urbana, ILVIDEO OF POWER LINE DOWN AND ARCING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Mar 3, 12:50 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG2 Wnw Bloomington, ILSTREET LAMP BLOWN DOWN AT ALDI ON MAPLE HILL ROAD.
Mar 3, 12:55 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 475 N Longview, ILMESONET STATION DVI02490 SIDNEY.
Mar 3, 12:55 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 47Rantoul Airport, ILAWOS STATION KTIP RANTOUL ARPT.
Mar 3, 12:55 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 69Willard Airport, ILASOS STATION KCMI WILLARD ARPT.
Mar 3, 12:59 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 56Coles County Airport, ILASOS STATION KMTO COLES CO. MEM AP.
Mar 3, 1:00 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 E Decatur, ILSMALL TREE BLOWN OVER BEHIND E ELDORADO ST NEAR MCDONALDS. PHOTO SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Mar 3, 1:05 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 Se Champaign, ILLARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN IN HESSEL PARK. PICTURE SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Mar 3, 1:28 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG2 W Mount Zion, ILLARGE TREE DOWN OVER E ELWIN RD NEAR MOUNT ZION. VIDEO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Mar 3, 1:30 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 S Urbana, ILLARGE TREE SNAPPED AT THE BASE. PHOTO SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Mar 3, 1:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 49Rantoul Airport, ILAWOS STATION KTIP RANTOUL ARPT.
Mar 3, 1:51 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 72Mattoon, ILCHARLESTON MATTOON AIRPORT MEASURED 72 MPH NORTHEAST WIND GUST.
Mar 3, 2:10 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 Sw Champaign, ILSEGMENT OF A WOODEN FENCE BLOWN DOWN.
Mar 3, 2:10 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG2 E Decatur, ILPART OF STOP LIGHT KNOCKED DOWN.
Mar 3, 2:13 PM CSTFLOOD2 W Isabel, ILREPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING; CROPLAND/YARD/BASEMENT FLOODING.
Mar 3, 2:15 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMGBethany, ILTREE DOWN ON GARAGE AND SHED BLOWN OVER. EXACT TIME OF DAMAGE UNCERTAIN.
Mar 3, 2:24 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 68Mattoon, ILCHARLESTON MATTOON AIRPORT NNE WIND GUST 68 MPH.
Mar 3, 2:33 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 68Champaign, ILCHAMPAIGN AIRPORT HAD NNE WIND GUSTS 68 MPH.
Mar 3, 2:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMGPana, ILWHITE PINE TREE BLOWN OVER INTO PARKING LOT BY QIK N EZ NEAR HIGHWAY 51 FROM NORTH WIND GUST 51 MPH.
Mar 3, 2:49 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Se Forsyth, ILREPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN.
Mar 3, 2:50 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 492 Sse Urbana, ILMESONET STATION FW0668 URBANA.
Mar 3, 2:57 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Nw Decatur, ILLARGE SPRUCE TREE UPROOTED FROM 49 MPH NORTH WIND ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF DECATUR.
Mar 3, 3:05 PM CSTSNOW 1.72 Nw Shirley, ILSNOWFALL IN LAST TWO HOURS.
Mar 3, 3:06 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 60Champaign, ILCHAMPAIGN AIRPORT NORTH WIND GUST 60 MPH.
Mar 3, 3:15 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 45Hindsboro, ILMESONET STATION EW2893 HINDSBORO.
Mar 3, 3:30 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG2 N Homer, ILLARGE CEDAR TREE BLOWN OVER ON SOUTH HOMER LAKE ROAD. TRUCK DIAMETER 2 FEET.
Mar 3, 3:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 451 Sw Olney Noble Airpor, ILAWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.
Mar 3, 3:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 45Flora Municipal Airport, ILAWOS STATION KFOA FLORA ARPT.
Mar 3, 3:40 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 60Altamont, ILNW WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.
Mar 3, 3:40 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMGTuscola, ILLARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN BY STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS.
Mar 3, 3:44 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Ene Decatur, ILREPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN; POWER POLES BROKEN.
Mar 3, 4:05 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 50Danville, ILESTIMATED NORTH WIND GUST 50 MPH IN DANVILLE.
Mar 3, 4:10 PM CSTSNOW 2.22 E Bloomington, ILSLUSHY ROADS ON EAST SIDE OF BLOOMINGTON.
Mar 3, 4:10 PM CSTSNOW 2.53 Ese Bloomington, ILSLUSH COVERED ROADS ON EAST SOUTHEAST SIDE OF BLOOMINGTON.
Mar 3, 4:15 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 60Danville, ILESTIMATED NORTH WIND GUST 60 MPH. RAIN AND SLEET HAS TURNED TO SNOW.
Mar 3, 4:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 45Mount Carmel Airport, ILAWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT.
Mar 3, 4:35 PM CSTNON-TSTM WND GST 45Robinson Municipal Airp, ILAWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT.
Mar 3, 5:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 2.36Robinson, ILRAINFALL TODAY.
Mar 3, 5:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 2.443 W Birds, ILRAINFALL TODAY.
Mar 3, 5:44 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.841 Nw Mattoon, IL
Mar 3, 5:50 PM CSTSNOW 2.2Capital Airport, ILMEASURED 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW IN 2 HOURS FROM 2 TO 4 PM STATION ELEVATION: 590 FT.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.12 E Lincoln, ILRAINFALL AT NWS LINCOLN SINCE 7 AM TODAY.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.152 E Bloomington, ILRAINFALL SINCE 730 AM TODAY INCLUDING 2.2 INCHES OF SNOW IN AFTERNOON.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.39Decatur Airport, ILRAINFALL AT DECATUR AIRPORT SINCE 5 AM TODAY.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.48Coles County Airport, ILRAINFALL SINCE 4 AM TODAY.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.59Champaign, ILRAINFALL SINCE 5 AM TODAY AT CHAMPAIGN AIRPORT IN SAVOY.
Mar 3, 6:00 PM CSTHEAVY RAIN 1.66Springfield, ILRAINFALL SINCE 5 AM TODAY AT CAPITOL AIRPORT IN SPRINGFIELD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2023-03-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2023-03-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1689 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

432 
WWUS73 KILX 031824
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-040230-
/O.UPG.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.HW.W.0001.230303T1824Z-230304T0100Z/
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton, 
Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Springfield, 
Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, 
Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, 
Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North to northeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts to
  around 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast 
  Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ILZ031-037-041-047>050-040100-
/O.EXT.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/
Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Including the cities of Eureka, Pekin, Havana, Beardstown, 
Petersburg, Winchester, and Jacksonville
1224 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 50 mph,
  becoming northwest through the afternoon.

* WHERE...Woodford, Tazewell, McLean and Mason Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Deubelbeiss
2 follow-up statements
531 
WWUS73 KILX 032333
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ILZ038-042>044-051>054-061-040045-
/O.CAN.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-
Shelby-
Including the cities of Bloomington, Normal, Lincoln, Clinton, 
Monticello, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, 
and Shelbyville
533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased across the area, allowing the headline to be
cancelled.

$$

ILZ031-037-041-047>050-040045-
/O.CAN.KILX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/
Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Including the cities of Eureka, Pekin, Havana, Beardstown, 
Petersburg, Winchester, and Jacksonville
533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased across the area, allowing the headline to be
cancelled.

$$

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-040100-
/O.CON.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/
Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Tuscola, 
Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton,
Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
533 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds around 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
768 
WWUS73 KILX 040056
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-040200-
/O.CAN.KILX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230304T0100Z/
Champaign-Vermilion-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Tuscola, 
Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton,
Robinson, Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
656 PM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished across the area, so the High Wind Warning
has been cancelled. Northwest winds will gust near 30 mph this
evening.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Mar 3, 11:36 AM CST, 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 11:36 AM CST, 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1136 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

An intense storm system will bring heavy rain to central Illinois
through this afternoon, when a transition to wet snow is expected
for a portion of the area. Northeast winds will intensify late
this morning and remain gusty as they turn to northwesterly during
the afternoon. Dry weather will return for the weekend with
temperatures warming through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Late this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a dry slot punching
north into southern Illinois while a compact impulse is in place
near the bootheel of Missouri. This wave will be the primary area
to watch as we head into the afternoon for a severe threat in SE
Illinois. Latest RAP continues to hint at around 300-500 J/kg
clipping the far southeastern counties (Lawrence, Richland,
Crawford) superimposed by 0-3km shear in excess of 50kt. This will
support a wind threat and possibly a low end tornado threat
depending on storm organization.

Further north, latest RAP guidance indicates we are on track for
strong frontogenesis to form near the I-57 corridor by around
midday and very slowly lift northeast through the afternoon.
Dynamic cooling within this stronger mesoscale forcing will allow
rain to change to snow with minor accumulations still expected in
counties with the Winter Weather Advisory (Mclean through
Vermilion). Precip should move out of the area by 6pm to 9pm this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

At 330 AM, a plume of moisture was evident streaming northward
ahead of a developing surface low which WPC analyzed across
central Arkansas. Beneath the left exit region of a 120kt+ 500mb
jet, this feature will rapidly intensify as it lifts northeastward
towards central Illinois over the next several hours - going from
around 990mb to roughly 975mb in the span of around 10 hours
according to the 06z RAP. Accordingly, the air mass is moistening
from the south as the LLJ advects Gulf moisture northward. SGF's
sounding had a PWAT of 1.05" at 00z, whereas ours was 0.31" at the
same time; undoubtedly, we've moistened since then, and will
continue to throughout the morning as the low draws nearer. This
multifaceted system will bring a myriad of weather conditions when
it arrives later this morning, including the following potential
threats:

* Heavy rain: WPC's probabilistic QPF guidance suggests a 95%
  chance for more than 1" of rain across areas mainly SE of I-55
  in southeast/south central Illinois for the 24 hr period ending
  at 06z Sat. South of I-70, the chance for greater than 2" (3")
  of QPF is upwards of 60 (20%). HREF's ensemble mean (max)
  suggests nearly 3" (6") of rain falling in our southeast
  counties as well. Given the signal in the guidance, and the
  upstream reports of heavy rainfall/flash flooding, WPC has
  expanded the moderate risk for excessive rainfall to clip our
  southeastern CWA and their slight risk to affect those southeast
  of I-57. Training convective activity through the afternoon will
  bear close watching for these areas. For more information, see
  the hydrology section of this discussion.

* Severe weather: The surface low track has shifted southeast in
  the past couple model iterations, which would seem to inhibit
  our severe potential somewhat. Nonetheless, the far southeast
  corner of our CWA will need close monitoring late morning
  through early afternoon as strong synoptic uplift near the
  surface low coincides with elevated instability and an intense
  kinematic profile featuring curved hodographs and 0-6km bulk
  shear upwards of 60kt. The HRRR and NAMNest have severe
  convection narrowly missing us, but the threat is certainly
  nonzero. SPC has maintained a slight risk in our extreme
  southeast and marginal northwestward nearly to I-55.

* Winter weather: HREF mean suggests FGEN values upwards of 150
  k/m/1e10s in our eastern half during the early to mid afternoon
  time frame, which should support a snow band's development on
  the northwest side of an intense deformation band as 850mb temps
  drop to sub 0C behind the surface low with deformation of the 0C
  isotherm owing to wet bulbing of the column by intense precip.
  The probability for greater than 1"/hr snowfall from HREF is
  60+% in extreme north Vermilion and Champaign counties points
  northeast during the mid-late afternoon, quickly tapering to
  around 10% for most of the rest of the area. Important
  distinction here though: the CAMs have difference timing of the
  event too, which could be artificially lowering the
  probabilities a bit across the remainder of the area. HREF
  ensemble mean has 24 hr snowfall totals exceeding 1" NE of a
  Peoria to Decatur to Paris line (same location that experimental
  probabilistic WSSI has a 5+% chance for extreme impacts, mainly
  driven by snow load or potential infrastructure impacts from the
  weight of snow), and exceeding 2" across McLean, Woodford,
  Champaign, and Vermilion counties...Greater than 4" across
  extreme northern Champaign and Vermilion counties. However,
  given the somewhat warm ground not all of the snow is expected
  to stick; the CAMs are picking up on this, with their forecast
  snowfall (6" or more in spots) quite a bit higher than their
  forecast snow accumulation, which is generally less than 3" even
  where the heaviest snow is expected to fall. Concern exists for
  reduced visibilities amidst strong winds and heavy snowfall.
  WSSI suggests concern over snow loading resulting from heavy wet
  snow combined with strong winds. In addition, HREF suggests 30+%
  probs for sub 1/2 mile vis and wind speed > 30 mph across our
  CWA from Christian and Shelby counties points northeast. We'll
  need to monitor this closely for a possible upgrade to a Winter
  Storm Warning this afternoon, though at this time it appears the
  Advisory will suffice.

* High winds: The deterministic GFS suggests that at 21z (3 PM
  CST) the pressure difference between LWV and BMI - a distance of
  only ~140 miles - will be around 14mb, implying a gradient of
  roughly 0.1mb/mi which is quite remarkable. The HREF ensemble
  min, mean, and max, respectively, suggest peak gusts will reach
  40, 50-55, and 70mph across much of the CWA, with the strongest
  winds along the I-72 corridor. This is a lot of spread given
  it's day 1 of the forecast, but it seems most of this
  uncertainty is in mixing potential. Depending on which model you
  use, forecast soundings suggest that the low level inversion is
  high enough to allow for max gusts to somewhere between 45 and
  65 kt. The HRRR and NAMNest have been somewhat consistent at
  suggesting the 50-60kt winds at around 900mb will reach the
  surface during the late morning through mid afternoon timeframe,
  though this will be conditional on whether we can get heavy
  enough showers or a break in clouds to either force mixing via
  evaporational cooling or allow it through surface heating (the
  latter seems unlikely). The Wind Advisory was expanded and
  wording intensified to account for this concern, though the
  confidence for a High Wind Warning just is not there yet.

Once we put this system behind us tonight, we'll be dry and cool
for the first part of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Saturday is looking seasonable with highs in the mid 40s to mid
50s, and we may even get some breaks of sun during the afternoon,
mainly south of I-72. By Sunday, we'll start to warm up with the
approach of the next system which will bring a warm front across
the Midwest and another opportunity for rain on Monday, which at
this time is the warmest day in the forecast period. NBM suggests
a 90% chance for highs over 60F on Monday in Lincoln, and even
yields an 80% chance for highs in the 70s in Lawrenceville.
Uncertainty increases later in the forecast period, though none of
the deterministic models are suggesting any impactful storm
systems in our neck of the woods for whatever that's worth.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Widespread rain will continue through the remainder of the daylight
hours today, switching over to snow for some by mid afternoon. MVFR
to IFR ceiling and visby reductions will be common through this
evening, though occasional drops to IFR will be possible with any
heavier bursts of snow. Conditions should rapidly improve tonight
with visibilities and ceilings lifting back into VFR category before
06Z areawide. Strong northeast winds with gusts upwards of 45 kts
are expected through this afternoon, slowly lessening by this
evening. Winds should become light overnight into Saturday morning.
In fact, some guidance suggests shallow ground fog developing
Saturday morning, though confidence is quite low on this actually
occurring.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 414 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Precipitation amounts with the upcoming storm system today look to
be around 2 inches or higher from Effingham to Paris
southeastward, ranging as high as 3 to 4 inches. A moderate risk of
excessive rainfall has been depicted by WPC in this area, and this
matches well with a Flood Watch already in effect until this
evening. The bulk of precipitation looks to fall between 6 AM and
noon, and be nearly over with by 6 pm. Runoff will continue to
accumulate in larger basins through Friday night, and rises look to
continue through Saturday. A flood warning is already in effect at
Clay City on the Little Wabash River, as well as on portions of the
Wabash River.

Elsewhere, precipitation amounts will taper off to the northwest,
with a still significant inch plus expected along the I-55 corridor.
Rises are likely on the Sangamon River that could produce
flood stage levels, especially on the upper and lower ends of the
river basin.

On the Illinois River, impacts from the heavier rain over the last
week in northern Illinois are working their way down, and there is
a good chance of at least minor flooding from Peoria upstream
early next week. Downstream, more of the impacts from the upcoming
system come into play, and moderate flooding is expected to
develop at Havana and Beardstown toward Tuesday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ031-037-038-
041>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ038-
043>046.

Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ057-063-067-068-
071>073.

&&

UPDATE...Deubelbeiss
SYNOPSIS...Bumgardner
SHORT TERM...Bumgardner
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...NMA
HYDROLOGY...37
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 3, 11:34 AM CST, 50 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ILZ027>030-036-040-041745-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Fulton-Schuyler-
1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Windy conditions are expected, however wind gusts are expected to
remain below 45 mph.

Rain may mix with or change to snow this afternoon, but
accumulations should be minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

River levels on the Illinois River will rise, with minor flooding
ongoing from Havana downstream. At these locations, river levels may
approach moderate flood stage by late next week. Minor flooding is
also possible from Peoria upstream by late next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ031-037-041-042-047>057-061>063-066-041745-
Woodford-Tazewell-Mason-Logan-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-
Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-
Effingham-
1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong northeast winds are expected today, and could gust over
55 mph especially near the I-72 corridor this afternoon. Tree damage
and power outages are possible beyond what would normally be
expected with these wind speeds due to the unusual wind direction.

Rain will continue through early evening, with total amounts of one
to two inches near the I-55 corridor, and two to three inches near
and east of I-57. Rain may mix with or change to snow this
afternoon, but accumulations should be minimal.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor flooding possible on the west end of the Sangamon River by
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-043>046-041745-
McLean-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-
1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and east
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain is expected to mix with or change over to snow this afternoon.
Slushy accumulations of a couple inches are possible.

In addition, rainfall over an inch is possible.

Strong northeast winds are expected today, and could gust over
55 mph this afternoon. Tree damage and power outages are possible
beyond what would normally be expected with these wind speeds due to
the unusual wind direction and sticky wet snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor flooding is likely on the east end of the Sangamon River by
late Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ067-068-071>073-041745-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
1134 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rain of 2 to 4 inches is possible today, which will cause
further river rises and areas of flooding. In addition, scattered
thunderstorms are expected, a few of which may be strong to severe.
Damaging winds would be the most likely concern with any storms.
Even outside of the storms, wind gusts over 50 mph from the
northeast are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Minor flooding on area rivers is likely to continue this weekend and
into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 2 PM.

Erwin

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 3, 7:00 AM CST, 5 hours 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
700 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSE CLAY CITY         38.61N 88.31W
03/03/2023  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CLYI2 CLAY CITY 6
            SSE.

0635 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023  M0.99 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 3, 9:38 AM CST, 2 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
938 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW LAWRENCEVILLE     38.72N 87.72W
03/03/2023  M1.72 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BRPI2 1.7 W
            LAWRENCEVILLE.

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT    38.61N 87.73W
03/03/2023  M1.61 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT.

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023  M1.52 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE OLNEY              38.75N 88.07W
03/03/2023  M1.40 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-6 OLNEY 1.5 NE.

0920 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HEYWORTH            40.31N 88.95W
03/03/2023  M1.34 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU670 HEYWORTH.

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROBINSON MUNICIPAL AIRP 39.01N 87.65W
03/03/2023  M1.05 INCH       CRAWFORD           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:14 PM CST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1214 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S MORTON              40.58N 89.46W
03/03/2023  M1.00 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&
Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:15 PM CST, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1215 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW DECATUR AIRPORT   39.83N 88.87W
03/03/2023  M67 MPH          MACON              IL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KDEC DECATUR ARPT.

1149 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE FARMINGDALE       39.80N 89.75W
03/03/2023  M63 MPH          SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW9022 PLAINFIELD.

1144 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.85N 89.68W
03/03/2023  M54 MPH          SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSPI SPFLD CAPITAL AP.

1147 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.47N 88.27W
03/03/2023  M54 MPH          COLES              IL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMTO COLES CO. MEM AP.

1045 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST WILLARD AIRPORT         40.03N 88.28W
03/03/2023  M51 MPH          CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCMI WILLARD ARPT.

1130 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE ASHLAND           39.92N 89.99W
03/03/2023  M51 MPH          MENARD             IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7786 TALLULA.

1155 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT     39.54N 89.33W
03/03/2023  M51 MPH          CHRISTIAN          IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KTAZ TAYLORVILLE ARPT.

1049 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW ROYAL             40.16N 87.99W
03/03/2023  M45 MPH          CHAMPAIGN          IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION UP806 3 SW ROYAL.

1115 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE AIRPORT    39.77N 90.24W
03/03/2023  M45 MPH          MORGAN             IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KIJX JACKSONVILLE ARPT.

1154 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AIRPOR 40.48N 88.91W
03/03/2023  M45 MPH          MCLEAN             IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KBMI BLOOMINGTON ARPT.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:16 PM CST, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW SPRINGFIELD       39.81N 89.67W
03/03/2023                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON THE 1300 BLOCK
            OF WEST ENOS AVENUE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

BARNES
Local storm report, Mar 3, 12:22 PM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1222 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW OLNEY NOBLE AIRPOR 38.72N 88.18W
03/03/2023  M1.98 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KOLY OLNEY NOBLE AP.

1110 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E OLNEY               38.73N 88.07W
03/03/2023  M1.95 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-3 OLNEY 0.7 E.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW NEWTON             38.98N 88.17W
03/03/2023  M1.93 INCH       JASPER             IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW2373 NEWTON.

1155 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT CARMEL AIRPORT    38.61N 87.73W
03/03/2023  M1.85 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KAJG MT CARMEL ARPT.

1201 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE NEWTON            38.98N 88.16W
03/03/2023  M1.81 INCH       JASPER             IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW0638 NEWTON.

1205 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW KIRKSVILLE         39.60N 88.71W
03/03/2023  M1.73 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW6864 SULLIVAN.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E HEYWORTH            40.31N 88.95W
03/03/2023  M1.72 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU670 HEYWORTH.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E DUNDAS              38.83N 88.06W
03/03/2023  M1.62 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-RC-7 DUNDAS 1.4 E.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE MARSHALL          39.41N 87.68W
03/03/2023  M1.61 INCH       CLARK              IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU010 MARSHALL.

1155 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EFFINGHAM COUNTY AIRPOR 39.07N 88.53W
03/03/2023  M1.49 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1H2 EFFINGHAM ARPT.

1155 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROBINSON MUNICIPAL AIRP 39.01N 87.65W
03/03/2023  M1.39 INCH       CRAWFORD           IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KRSV ROBINSON ARPT.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TEUTOPOLIS              39.13N 88.48W
03/03/2023  M1.29 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1289 TEUTOPOLIS.

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW VINCENNES UNIVERS 38.68N 87.54W
03/03/2023  M1.24 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION VCNI3 0.9 W VINCENNES
            UNIVERSITY.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W ROBINSON            39.01N 87.78W
03/03/2023  M1.20 INCH       CRAWFORD           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION RBSI2 2.0 W ROBINSON.

1155 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT     39.54N 89.33W
03/03/2023  M1.16 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KTAZ TAYLORVILLE ARPT.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW DUNDAS             38.80N 88.12W
03/03/2023  M1.15 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1422 OLNEY.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HINDSBORO               39.69N 88.14W
03/03/2023  M1.12 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW2893 HINDSBORO.

1206 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW DANVILLE          40.17N 87.65W
03/03/2023  M1.10 INCH       VERMILION          IL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CW9931 DANVILLE.

1138 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE SHUMWAY           39.15N 88.62W
03/03/2023  M1.00 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION IL-EF-32 EFFINGHAM 4.2 WNW.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 2, 8:30 PM CSTWinter Weather AdvisoryILXChampaign, DeWitt, McLean, Piatt, Vermilion22 hr
Mar 3, 9:11 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXPiatt5 days
Mar 3, 9:29 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXLawrence7 days
Mar 3, 11:49 AM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryILXCass, DeWitt, Logan, McLean, Mason, Menard and 3 more3 hr
Mar 3, 12:49 PM CSTAreal Flood AdvisoryILXClay, Crawford, Effingham, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland3 hr

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in Illinois, 2023Every high wind warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.