Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
801 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will affect central IL
through tonight, with locally heavy rain possible. Showers will
diminish on Friday, with dry weather forecast for Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Scattered showers and isolated storms continue across central
Illinois with the best coverage between the I-55 and I-57
corridors. While there may be a relative lull in coverage over
the next few hours with loss of daytime heating, latest RAP
continues to show a modest low level jet developing late this
evening. This 30 kt southerly jet will develop between 10 pm and
midnight with a focus across portions of west central into central
Illinois, along and west of I-55. Precip coverage should again
increase and will have to keep an eye out for locally heavy
rainfall. Cloud-bearing layer flow per 00Z KILX sounding was only
11 kt and 1.50 inch PWat is just above the 90th percentile. Slow
moving, efficient storms could produce localized rainfall rates of
1.5 to 2.0 inches. One hour flash flood guidance is around
2.2-2.3 inches while three hour FFG is 2.6-2.8+.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Key Messages:

1) Showers and a few storms, some with locally heavy rainfall,
through tonight.

2) Showers diminish Friday, then dry Saturday and trending drier
for Sunday.

3) Stretch of nice fall weather next week.

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery and surface map
indicated weak low pressure over southeast IA, and water vapor
imagery showed the mid level shortwave swirling over central IL.
Main concern through early evening will be locally heavy rain and
a few gusty thunderstorms in a broad zone centered on I-55, where
some low level convergence overlaps MLCAPEs building near 1k J/kg,
all beneath broad ascent under the upper wave. HREF max 3-hr QPF
(reasonable worst case scenario) depicts a few pockets of 2.5-3"
rainfall through early evening, and this would be supported by
1.5" PWATs and slow storm motions. Even these outlier cases
shouldn't offer too much in the way of flooding concerns as 3-hr
FFG values are running 2.5-3.5", though if this falls over an
urban area brief water concerns may develop. An inconsequential
but potential attention grabber is the possibility of a few
funnel clouds this afternoon where the low overcast has given way
to a developing CU field with the background vorticity overhead.
Non-supercell tornado parameter, while weak, is non- zero from
southeast IA into west central IL, so these areas would be most
favored for brief funnels. This evening, the convergent nose of a
southerly 30 kt 925 mb jet focuses of the western and central CWA,
fueling or re-invigorating more scattered storms through late
evening. Still not much of a flood risk unless training results in
very localized much higher rainfall amounts.

The slow moving mid level wave gradually fills later tonight and
Friday as it drifts north, allowing shower and storm coverage to
decrease in intensity and coverage. Highest (likely) PoPs are
focused west of I-55 Friday morning, diminishing to scattered
coverage by afternoon. Trended highs cooler in the upper 70s over
the western CWA Friday given more cloud cover anticipated, while
the southeast CWA should reach into the lower 80s.

This weekend, the main weather players for the eastern half of the
CONUS will be a closed mid level low slowly moving out of the
northern Plains, and a tropical system working north along the
eastern seaboard. Between these two features upper level ridging
is forecast to build north over the Ohio Valley and Midwest,
effectively stalling the eastward advance of the Plains low. We
will maintain a dry forecast for Saturday, and chance PoPs over
the western half of the CWA Sunday on the eastern fringes of
forcing ahead of the upper low. Much of the 12z guidance has
trended drier for Sunday and would expect PoPs to be eliminated in
later forecasts if this trend continues.

The remainder of the forecast through mid-week is looking dry and
cooler as a large area of high pressure over southeast Canada
produces easterly flow across the Midwest.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Scattered showers and a few isolated storms will continue across
central Illinois this evening and overnight, though coverage
should gradually become more focused west of I-55 Friday
afternoon. Guidance does indicate some fog potential along and
west of the Illinois River tonight which could impact PIA, but
confidence is low at this time. A modest SE breeze will prevail
through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-061-221100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-
Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Shelby-
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the area
tonight. Severe weather is not expected: however, a few pockets of
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. Severe
weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Coles-Edgar-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-
Lawrence-
305 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Illinois and
southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the area
tonight. Severe weather is not expected: however, a few pockets of
locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Barnes

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
443 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Rain             Mount Pulaski           40.01N 89.28W
09/21/2023  M1.22 inch       Logan              IL   CO-OP Observer

            Rainfall since 6 am.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
527 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     Rain             1 SW Clinton            40.14N 88.97W
09/21/2023  M1.15 inch       De Witt            IL   NWS Employee

            Rainfall since 4:30 pm.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
538 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Rain             3 SW Towanda            40.54N 88.94W
09/21/2023  M2.43 inch       McLean             IL   NWS Employee

            2.43 since Wednesday evening. 1.41 since
            this morning.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
559 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     Rain             1 E Bloomington         40.48N 88.98W
09/21/2023  M2.57 inch       McLean             IL   Trained Spotter

            Since 1am.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
852 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Rain             Lane                    40.12N 88.86W
09/21/2023  M3.49 inch       De Witt            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW4369 Lane.

0840 PM     Rain             3 WNW Towanda           40.58N 88.95W
09/21/2023  M3.41 inch       McLean             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW2710 Towanda.

0830 PM     Rain             5 ENE Waynesville       40.26N 89.04W
09/21/2023  M3.11 inch       De Witt            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9761 Waynesville.

0756 PM     Rain             Central Illinois Airpor 40.48N 88.91W
09/21/2023  M2.35 inch       McLean             IL   AWOS

            AWOS station KBMI Bloomington Arpt.

0839 PM     Rain             2 ESE Bloomington       40.47N 88.96W
09/21/2023  M2.29 inch       McLean             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW0991 Bloomington.

0835 PM     Rain             Hindsboro               39.69N 88.14W
09/21/2023  M2.07 inch       Douglas            IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW2893 Hindsboro.

0840 PM     Rain             2 NW Metamora           40.81N 89.38W
09/21/2023  M2.04 inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station AU804 1 NW Metamora.

0837 PM     Rain             1 WNW Metamora          40.80N 89.38W
09/21/2023  M1.93 inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW7405 Metamora.

0831 PM     Rain             Washington              40.70N 89.42W
09/21/2023  M1.68 inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW8799 Washington.

0830 PM     Rain             2 S Cooksville          40.51N 88.72W
09/21/2023  M1.65 inch       McLean             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW0890 Cooksville.

0830 PM     Rain             1 NW Washington         40.71N 89.42W
09/21/2023  M1.58 inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW7110 Washington.

0831 PM     Rain             2 NNW Washington        40.74N 89.42W
09/21/2023  M1.57 inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW4888 Washington.

0835 PM     Rain             3 N Panola              40.82N 89.02W
09/21/2023  M1.47 inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 8089D 2 N Panola.

0837 PM     Rain             4 NE East Peoria        40.70N 89.52W
09/21/2023  M1.46 inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station GW3458 EAST PEORIA.

0830 PM     Rain             Arrowsmith              40.45N 88.63W
09/21/2023  M1.44 inch       McLean             IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW9547 Arrowsmith.

0836 PM     Rain             1 NNE Eureka            40.73N 89.27W
09/21/2023  M1.38 inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW1740 Eureka.

0800 PM     Rain             4 S Bondville           40.05N 88.37W
09/21/2023  M1.28 inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station BNDI2 UI BONDVILLE CHAMPAIGN
            9 SW IL US.

0600 PM     Rain             1 SE Charleston         39.48N 88.17W
09/21/2023  M1.27 inch       Coles              IL   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station CRSI2 0.8 SE
            Charleston.

0830 PM     Rain             1 SSW Germantown Hills  40.76N 89.48W
09/21/2023  M1.26 inch       Woodford           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CW8069 Germantown Hills.

0800 PM     Rain             1 SSW Mount Pulaski     40.00N 89.29W
09/21/2023  M1.12 inch       Logan              IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW5298 Mt. Pulaski.

0835 PM     Rain             3 WSW Homer             40.01N 88.01W
09/21/2023  M1.12 inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 7287D 3 WSW Homer.

0800 PM     Rain             1 SE Champaign          40.11N 88.25W
09/21/2023  M1.09 inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station SSEI2 0.7 SE Champaign.

0831 PM     Rain             3 ENE East Peoria       40.69N 89.53W
09/21/2023  M1.09 inch       Tazewell           IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW6160 East Peoria.

0840 PM     Rain             2 SSE Urbana            40.08N 88.19W
09/21/2023  M1.07 inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW0668 Urbana.

0753 PM     Rain             Coles County Airport    39.47N 88.27W
09/21/2023  M1.02 inch       Coles              IL   ASOS

            ASOS station KMTO Coles Co. Mem AP.

0815 PM     Rain             2 WSW Champaign         40.10N 88.31W
09/21/2023  M1.02 inch       Champaign          IL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CMII2 2.5 W Champaign.

&&