Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
308 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the Independence Day weekend as disturbances interact
with a humid and unstable airmass. Smoke and haze originating
from Canadian wildfires may improve under increasing winds and
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Smoke and haze are gradually growing less prevalent as winds
shift to south away from the source region of Canada.

Thunderstorm complex over Illinois generating severe weather is
moving into Indiana and towards Ohio and Kentucky. After
monitoring current model, satellite and radar trends, this MCS
is likely to affect ILN late this afternoon and this evening,
mainly across western counties. Though this system may weaken
and turn southeast toward more unstable air, a line of storms
containing strong wind gusts and heavy downpours could reach our
western fringe between 5pm and 6pm. Further weakening may limit
the strong gusts to the western half of the FA. Keeping chance
pops for the rest of tonight with a lot of uncertainty regarding
placement of any storms that linger. Low temperatures in the mid
and upper 60s are forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thunderstorm chances continue Friday in a persistently warm and
unstable airmass. Lack of major short wave forcing keeps pops in
the chance range. High temperatures are forecast to reach the
mid and upper 80s north up to the lower 90s south. Heat indices
will briefly reach 100 in some far southern locations.

For Friday night, increased forcing surrounding the next
thunderstorm complex points to likely pops for thunderstorms.
From an environment containing around 3000 J/KG CAPE and 2
inches PWAT, some storms could produce damaging wind gusts and
heavy downpours. Forecast lows are around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At the start of the period, the broad ridge of high pressure
remains to our south over the Gulf of Mexico with a closed low over
Ontario and a wave digging down into into the Central Great Plains.
This set up keeps the ILN CWA under an area of enhanced westerly
flow aloft on the northern periphery of the ridge. Nearer to
the surface, the same airmass will be in place, with hot and
humid conditions (Saturday highs reaching mid to upper 80s),
elevated instability, and a low level cap. Again, the overall
setup would suggest rounds of showers and storms, with MCS
development and maintenance possible, however, a large enough
nose of warm air in the lower levels may inhibit more robust
storm formation.

By Saturday night/ Sunday morning, the low to our north (as well as
the wave over the Plains) will have progressed eastward.
This sets up a stalled boundary somewhere near our area, again
allowing for periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Any
training storms would allow for a localized flood threat;
all echoed in the WPC ERO and SPC Convective Outlooks.
By Monday, the trailing low pressure system and cold front will
be moving through and high temperatures moderate down a bit,
only reaching the low 80s while additional precipitation chances
remain in the forecast.
Temperatures rebound back to the upper 80s by Tuesday as the wave
continues to move east and is replaced by ridging, however,
showers and storms remain in the grids as a combination diurnally
driven popups and weak shortwaves traverse the larger flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast begins with IFR to MVFR visibilities in smoke and haze.
Gradual improvement to VFR is possible as winds arrive with
cleaner air.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms make for a complicated
forecast. Model guidance being variable, surface obs, satellite
and radar can be useful in determining path and location of
convection. It appears that the thunderstorm complex to the west
may weaken and/or drop southeast this evening as it approaches
our TAF sites. Went with VCTS and VCSH while keeping ceilings
VFR. Direct impacts to TAF sites including wind gusts and lower
ceilings will be contained in amendments as the convection moves
closer. More of the same is expected for Friday as additional
convection develops in the humid and unstable weather regime.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Friday night through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ034-035-042-043-051-060-
061-070-071-077-078-301930-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Miami-
Preble-Montgomery-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms may approach severe limits late this afternoon into
this evening. Damaging straight line winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
into Monday. Some of the storms will be capable of producing
damaging wind as well as locally heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail
could occur on Saturday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ099-100-OHZ026-044>046-052>056-062>065-072>074-079>082-088-301930-
Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-
Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 29 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West
Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
into Monday. Some of the storms will be capable of producing
damaging wind as well as locally heavy rainfall. Isolated large hail
could occur on Saturday as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.