Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
626 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are expected today with showers and
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon and into this
evening. A slow-moving upper level low will lead to cooler
conditions Monday into Tuesday along with a continued chance for
showers and few thunderstorms each day. Drier and warmer
conditions will evolve toward midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Residual outflow and subsidence inversion (seen in 20Z ILN
sounding) from remnants of morning activity has had a
considerable impact as convection has weakened substantially as
it has moved into the forecast area.

Still have large scale forcing to move through, so we could see
additional development, but clearly there are questions about
available instability, and even if there are storms they may be
elevated unless convective inhibition decreases.

So overall severe threat is quite a bit lower than initially
anticipated, but do not want to let guard down. At this point,
greatest severe potential looks like it will be across northern
Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHRA will increase in coverage through the daytime as an
unseasonably deep midlevel closed low migrates through the Great
Lakes region. Fairly cohesive cloud cover and numerous loosely-
organized bands of SHRA/TSRA are expected during the afternoon,
especially near/N of the OH Rvr. This will keep highs temps
ranging from the mid 70s in the N to the lower 80s in the S.

The SHRA/TSRA activity will be diurnally-enhanced, but certainly
a few ISO SHRA may linger past sunset, especially in nrn/cntrl
OH. Cannot completely rule out some small hail with TSRA
activity during the afternoon/evening. Lows dip into the
lower/mid 60s toward daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper trough will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through Tuesday.  This feature will also allow for temperatures only
in the 70s across most locations on Tuesday.

A few remaining showers will be possible into Tuesday evening and on
Wednesday in central Ohio, however most locations will stay dry as
the trough pushes to the east.  Temperatures will be slightly warmer
on Wednesday as the trough begins to move out.

A continued warming trend will continue through Saturday.  With the
increase in heat and humidity, storm chances will also increase with
daily storm chances.  Temperatures on Sunday will be a little
cooler, however thunderstorm chances will remain with another system
moving through.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will track across the region over the
next several hours. This will lead to some visibility

Some VFR clouds at multiple levels may persist through the
heart of the overnight, but skies will briefly trend clearer
during this time until the arrival of better cloud coverage from
the N once again toward/beyond 12z. Some MVFR CIGs will also be
possible for nrn sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLUK between 12z-18z or so
before CIGs trend more decidedly VFR toward the end of the
period.

SCT SHRA/TSRA will increase in coverage between 12z-18z Monday,
with the greatest coverage likely for nrn sites of
KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. But have included a VCSH area-wide to account
for the potential.

SSW winds at 10-15kts will subside this evening. WSW winds at
10-15kts, with gusts to 20-25kts are expected during the daytime
Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Tuesday.
MVFR ceilings possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260900-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely later this afternoon into this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although
a few strong tornadoes will also be possible, especially along and
west of the I-75 corridor. The most likely time frame for severe
weather will be between 4 PM and 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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